NFL Playoff Picture and Standings Week 10: Vikings Grab Epic Win Over Bills, Chiefs Move Into AFC’s No. 1 Seed

What does the NFL playoff picture look like after Week 10? Here's how the postseason would shake out if the season ended today.

Week 10 of the NFL schedule offered a few insane finishes that will alter the playoff picture and the divisional standings. We’ve crossed the halfway mark of the season, so nearly every game had at least some effect on the postseason projection.

Let’s take a look at the updated NFL playoff picture and assess which teams enhanced or impaired their postseason chances on Sunday. For analysis on all the action from Week 10, scroll down below the standings.

NFL Playoff Picture for Week 10

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
2. Miami Dolphins (7-3)
3. Tennessee Titans (6-3)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
5. New York Jets (6-3)
6. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
7. New England Patriots (5-4)

In the Hunt

8. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
10. Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
11. Cleveland Browns (3-6)
12. Denver Broncos (3-6)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
16. Houston Texans (1-7-1)

Current NFC Playoff Picture

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
5. New York Giants (7-2)
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-4)

In the Hunt

8. Washington Commanders (5-5)
9. Green Bay Packers (4-6)
10. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
11. Arizona Cardinals (4-6)
12. Detroit Lions (3-6)
13. Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
14. Carolina Panthers (3-7)
15. New Orleans Saints (3-7)
16. Chicago Bears (3-7)

Chiefs Win Third Straight, Move to 7-2

Patrick Mahomes spread the ball around in Week 10, tossing one touchdown each to four different receivers in the Chiefs’ 27-17 victory over the Jaguars. Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Noah Gray all scored, as Kansas City moved into the AFC’s No. 1 seed, thanks to the Bills’ loss to the Vikings.

We may have seen a true changing of the guard in the Chiefs’ backfield, as Isiah Pacheco handled 16 carries while Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined for one. We’ll also have to watch the status of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who entered the concussion protocol after taking a scary first-half hit.

Dolphins Keep Rolling, Take Over AFC East Lead

The Dolphins have won four straight since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the starting lineup, and they’ve done it a multitude of ways. While Tua tossed three touchdowns against the Browns on Sunday, it was Miami’s run game that moved the needle in the 39-14 victory.

Trade deadline acquisition Jeff Wilson Jr. handled 17 carries for 119 yards and a score, while Raheem Mostert took eight attempts for 65 yards and a touchdown of his own. The Dolphins proved they could win games even when Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle are held under 100 receiving yards.

Thanks to the Bills’ loss, the Dolphins are now in control of the AFC East. They hold a half-game lead over Buffalo and New York and a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills.

Titans Maintain AFC South Lead With Win Over Broncos

The Titans have won six of their last seven, and their only loss was a tough overtime defeat to the Chiefs last Monday night. Tennessee earned another victory in Week 10, retaining first place in the AFC South following a defensive win over the Broncos.

Denver did an excellent job holding Derrick Henry to just 53 yards on the ground, so the Titans had to find a different way to win. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was their solution. The third-year wideout posted the best game of his career, totaling 119 yards and two scores on five receptions.

Tennessee has a vice grip on the division lead and moved into the third seed in the AFC. They share a 6-3 record with the Ravens, but the Titans have the better conference mark.

Colts Remain on Fringes of Playoff Contention

Jeff Saturday earned his first win as an NFL head coach by defeating the Raiders on Sunday. Matt Ryan, back under center for the first time since Week 7, completed 75% of his passes and somehow managed 39 yards on one scramble. Jonathan Taylor looked reborn, too, posting 147 yards on the ground, including a 66-yard score.

The Colts are nominally still in the playoff picture, but there’s a massive gap between the No. 10 seed Colts and the No. 9 seed Bengals. Indy took down Las Vegas today, but they’ll face a much more difficult test when they play the Eagles in Week 11.

Vikings Defeat Bills in Game of the Year

Well, the Vikings finally have their signature win! In one of the craziest games in recent memory, Minnesota took down Buffalo in overtime to move to 8-1.

Justin Jefferson had the game of his life, posting a career-high 193 yards and a touchdown on 10 receptions. With the Vikings down by three and two minutes remaining in the game, he converted a 4th-and-18 with a 32-yard catch. He then nearly scored on a 3rd-and-goal, but the play was overturned, and the Vikings failed on fourth down.

MORE: Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson Make Their Mark in 33–30 Win Over Buffalo Bills

The Bills had 1st-and-10 from their own 1-yard line with 48 seconds remaining, but the contest was far from over. Josh Allen improbably fumbled the snap, allowing Eric Kendricks to recover a defensive touchdown and give the Vikings a 30-27 lead. However, 41 seconds was more than enough time for Allen to get Buffalo into position for a field goal and send the game to OT.

Jefferson dominated in overtime, too, drawing a pass interference penalty before taking a 24-yard catch to the Buffalo 2-yard line. Ed Oliver and Shaq Lawson sacked Kirk Cousins on second down, and Minnesota eventually settled for a field goal. Allen effortlessly drove down the field, but he tossed an end-zone interception to Patrick Peterson to seal the loss.

This was the best win of the 8-1 Vikings’ season, and it will silence many of Minnesota’s doubters. Meanwhile, the Bills now sit at 6-3 after losing two straight. Their loss has dropped them to third place in the AFC East and the sixth seed in the conference playoff picture.

Giants Grab Another Win, Move to 7-2

The Giants eked out another victory on Sunday, defeating the Texans 24-16. Saquon Barkley took a career-high 35 attempts for 152 yards and a score, while Daniel Jones only threw 17 passes but tossed two touchdowns.

At 7-2, New York is a lock for the postseason. It will be tough for them to overtake both the Eagles and the Cowboys to win the NFC East, but a Wild Card slot is firmly within their grasp.

Cowboys Blow Lead Over Packers, Fall to Sixth Seed

The Cowboys had won two consecutive games since Dak Prescott returned to the starting lineup, but that streak ended today. Holding a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, Dallas gave up two touchdowns to rookie receiver Christian Watson (who scored three in total), sending the game to overtime.

After receiving the ball to begin OT, the Cowboys drove into Green Bay territory but failed to convert a 4th-and-3 from the Packers’ 35. Aaron Rodgers subsequently hit Allen Lazard for a 36-yard gain, and a Mason Crosby field goal gave Green Bay the win.

At 6-3, Dallas is now a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. The Packers (4-6) now have roughly a 14% chance to make the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. They’re still a long shot, but a win over the Titans on Thursday night would at least make things interesting.

Cardinals Beat Rams, But Neither Team Is Going Anywhere

We saw four quarterbacks play in Sunday’s Cardinals-Rams game, but none of them were Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford, both of whom were sidelined by injury.

Colt McCoy started for Arizona but was briefly injured, allowing Trace McSorley to handle a few snaps. Meanwhile, Los Angeles occasionally inserted third-stringer Bryce Perkins over John Wolford, taking advantage of the former’s abilities as a runner.

MORE: The NFC South Might Produce Another Losing Playoff Participant

Both the Cardinals and Rams are now 4-6, which likely won’t be good enough in either the NFC West or the conference Wild Card race. LA’s odds will get even worse if Cooper Kupp — who left after injuring his ankle in the second half — is out for an extended period.

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