Prior to the 2024 NFL trade deadline, several contenders bolstered their roster for their upcoming playoff run. Entering Week 10, which teams are currently in the playoff picture, and which squads are still in the hunt? Let’s examine the current NFL standings and what the postseason would look like if the season ended today.
AFC Playoff Chances
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 8-0
Six of Kansas City’s eight wins have been by one score or less, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that, at some point, there could be regression in terms of those one-score game results. Still, when you have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the advantage in those clutch spots is huge.
The numbers show that the Chiefs are good without being spectacular in any aspect. Kansas City having the NFL’s sixth-best offense despite all the injury issues is impressive and a huge credit to Mahomes and his ability to consistently make plays in big moments. The defense needs to improve some, especially with a big road test against the Buffalo Bills on the horizon.
2. Buffalo Bills, 7-2
From here on out, Buffalo’s schedule is mixed, with four tough games in a row around their bye week.
The Bills must be careful not to overlook the Indianapolis Colts this week because a win here would put them in an almost unassailable position in the AFC East. By the time they host the New England Patriots in Week 16, we’ll have a good idea of their Super Bowl credentials.
The Bills have matchups with the Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions in a five-week span. Go 4-0 or 3-1 through that stretch, and they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. However, 2-2 or worse would expose Buffalo as a group that can bully bad teams but doesn’t have the strength to compete at the top end.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-2
Are the Steelers an elite team that can contend or a middle-of-the-pack squad? The Steelers’ record is fantastic at 6-2, but it feels like it’s built on weak foundations.
Sure, the defense is a top-six unit, and the offense has looked good under Russell Wilson.
The problem is that they’ve played the fourth-easiest schedule to date but, going forward, will face the fifth-hardest. The next two games (at Washington, vs. Baltimore) will give us an idea of whether this is a solid playoff team or one that could be facing regression back to the AFC’s middle tier before the end of the season.
4. Houston Texans, 6-3
Houston’s defense is a solid unit that ranks 10th overall through nine weeks, but with the offense’s struggles, this team has benefited to this point from a soft schedule and a weak division. The good news for Houston is that the schedule doesn’t get much harder, and the division isn’t likely to get much tougher.
The Texans remain in pole position for the AFC South, having beaten the Colts twice and having a two-game lead over them in the standings. They would need to fail to win three more games than Indianapolis to lose their grip on the division.
Even if Houston wins the AFC South, the Texans would be the least convincing division winner in the conference and unlikely to have a deep playoff run as things stand.
5. Baltimore Ravens, 6-3
When the Ravens’ offense gets clicking, it is a joy to behold. They were superb against the Denver Broncos, who, despite allowing 41 points this week, remain a good unit.
There have been a few hiccups this season, but Baltimore’s offense has the potential to put together a strong run in January. They are effective both on the ground and through the air, which makes them largely weather and opponent-proof.
The Ravens’ defense and special teams remain concerns, and they must improve in the coming weeks. An offense this good should be winning comfortably if it has a competent defense. Yet, the Ravens have had six one-score games and are 3-3 in them. Baltimore has a tough schedule coming up, starting Thursday night with a rematch against the Cincinnati Bengals.
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-3
The jury very much remains out on this Chargers team, as they have faced the seventh-easiest schedule to date. Their defense has carried them to a 5-3 record, having only allowed 20 points once and 17+ points on three occasions. However, the fact that Los Angeles lost every game it allowed 17+ points demonstrates the frailties of the offense.
The top 10 defenses in the NFL through Week 9 based on the PFN Defense+ Metric ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/7y5fTTnK8n
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
The main positive for the Chargers is that their remaining schedule ranks as the seventh-easiest despite a brutal stretch in the middle of it. From Weeks 12 to 16, they play the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. If the Chargers go 1-4 or 0-5 in that stretch, this season could flip entirely on its head for them.
7. Denver Broncos, 5-4
The Broncos’ loss in Week 9 was humbling. It was their first matchup with one of the very elite teams this year, and they were put firmly in their place.
Denver’s defense is still a very good unit; struggling against a superb Ravens offense doesn’t change that. The offense remains a concern, however, as Baltimore’s defense is one of the worst in the league, and they could only score 10 points.
The Broncos’ problem is that this offense isn’t built to chase games, which is what happened in Week 9. They have two more tough tests coming up in Week 10 (at Kansas City) and Week 11 (vs. Atlanta) before things get easier again.
8. Indianapolis Colts, 4-5
The switch to Joe Flacco was supposed to make the Colts a bigger playoff threat in 2024, but Indianapolis’ offense looked worse than ever in Week 9. They faced a tough defense, so maybe improvement is to come, but both the offense and defense now rank outside the top 20 in PFN’s metrics.
Based on the current numbers, Indy’s roster isn’t good enough to compete in the AFC playoff picture despite being very much in the Wild Card race. Chasing a playoff spot in 2024 at the expense of developing their young quarterback appears to be an odd decision.
9. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-5
The Bengals are an intriguing team because they are only a field goal miss away from being above the Ravens in the standings and sitting at 5-4. However, the underlying metrics suggest that Cincinnati isn’t as good as its record would suggest.
The Bengals’ wins have come against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders — all of whom rank in the bottom eight of the NFL.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Cincinnati’s defense is the biggest issue, having allowed 20+ points on six occasions, resulting in four of its six losses. The offense is a good unit, but it has to be spectacular to overcome the defense. The Bengals are 2-2 when scoring over 30 points, which is a tough way to win football games, especially against stronger competition.
Cincinnati has the 10th-hardest schedule going forward, and a playoff spot is perhaps further away than their record would suggest. Yet, a win on Thursday in Baltimore would flip that narrative on its head.
10. New York Jets, 3-6
The Jets are a better team than their record indicates. Their defense remains a top-five unit, and their offense is right around league average. Given that they’ve played a middling schedule so far, that only shows how much this unit has underperformed so far. However, New York lost four of those games by one score and three of them by a field goal or less.
The Jets have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, which gives them a chance to recover for a playoff spot. There are five front-runners in this conference (if you include the Texans as clear AFC South favorites), but the final two spots right now are occupied by teams with five wins. The Jets are very much capable of getting to nine or 10 wins, which could be enough in the AFC.
NFC Playoff Chances
1. Detroit Lions, 7-1
The Lions took their latest test in stride as they headed outdoors for the first time this season. Facing a high-quality Green Bay Packers team in conditions that tend to favor them is a tough ask, so to win by 10 points is impressive. It would have been intriguing to see this game played with Jordan Love at 100% health, but the Lions did what was required of them.
The Lions’ schedule gets harder from here on out, but they’ve overcome two tough tests in the past three weeks. All three of Detroit’s units rank inside the top 10, and Jared Goff is putting together a very impressive season. All the pieces are here for this team to go deep into the playoffs if they can get the train on the tracks.
2. Washington Commanders, 7-2
The NFC East has clearly become a two-horse race, and after nine weeks, the Commanders have put themselves in pole position. The Commanders are 5-1 within the conference, so they already have a leg up on the Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 in conference play). However, they still need to at least split their two meetings and not drop too many games in the second half of the season.
Heading into Week 10, here’s how we’re grading the rookie quarterbacks with our QB+ Metric ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/syglw76G5F
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 6, 2024
Washington’s offense continues to be superb. The Commanders have scored 25+ points on five occasions and 21+ in seven games. This season, teams that score 25 points are 86-18, while teams that score 21 points or more are 113-39. The metrics suggest this defense is mediocre at best, but they’ve kept teams to 18 points or less on five occasions. Limit the struggles against better offenses, and this is a complete team.
3. Atlanta Falcons, 6-3
There aren’t many metrics that suggest the Falcons are as good as their 6-3 record indicates. The Falcons’ offense is at least a top-10 unit, but their defense is a mess, ranking third-worst in the league.
There’s a lot of pressure on Atlanta’s offense. If they have an off day, they’re likely to lose. The Falcons have allowed 20+ points in their last eight games but have managed to win six of them.
Entering Week 10, the Falcons are in a strong position. They have a two-game lead over the Buccaneers in the standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker as well. With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, Atlanta is in a good position, and a win this week could all but hand the Falcons the title if Tampa also loses.
4. Arizona Cardinals, 5-4
The Cardinals’ impressive performance in Week 9 has put them in a position to control the NFC West for now. This team is a tough one to read, with Arizona’s performances on both sides of the ball having been largely inconsistent. Still, the offense is ranked seventh in PFN’s metric, and they’ve scored 20 points in a row for the second consecutive time since the first two weeks.
Only two of Arizona’s five victories have been by more than a score, with three of the four coming by a combined four points. The Cardinals have faced a tough schedule to the open season (second overall), but things ease up in the coming weeks with the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. However, they still have rematches with both the Rams and 49ers, who the Cardinals beat the first time around.
5. Minnesota Vikings, 6-2
It wasn’t pretty watching the Minnesota Vikings this week, but they largely controlled the game against the Colts. The turnovers will be the biggest concern, and Minnesota’s offense is going to need some time to click with Cam Robinson arriving to replace Christian Darrisaw at left tackle.
The Vikings have a nice run of games here to put things on the right track, which is a huge plus. The defense remains one of the best in the league and stopped the rot a little against the Colts.
Minnesota’s next three games are not likely to be big tests, but they have four good offenses coming up in the final six weeks. The schedule eases up a little in the second half of the season, but this is still a top-12 remaining SOS, which means there can’t be too much room for error.
6. Philadelphia Eagles, 6-2
The Eagles keep chugging away, but we’ve yet to get a real feel for how good they are. The Eagles have now beaten four teams in a row who rank in the bottom half of our PR+. Their toughest tests came against the Buccaneers and Packers, who are both in the top 10. They snuck past Green Bay in Week 1 and were comprehensively beaten by Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia’s offense has been solid, and Jalen Hurts has played really well in the last two weeks. The defense has shone in recent weeks, pushing itself into the top 10 of PFN’s Defense+ metric.
The Eagles have played the second-easiest schedule to date and face a tough three-week stretch with the Commanders, Rams, and Ravens in Weeks 11-13. However, the overall schedule ranks fourth-easiest the rest of the way.
7. Green Bay Packers, 6-3
The Packers shouldn’t be too disheartened by their loss to the Lions, given it came with Love hobbled. It’s hard to read too much into the game for that reason and where the Packers stand relatively. Green Bay is probably a tier below Detroit and in a big group of teams that will be in the playoff picture but not among the top picks for the Super Bowl this season.
With a fully healthy quarterback, this is almost certainly a top-10 offense and potentially bordering on top-five. The Packers’ defense is a concern, but league-average is fine when you’ve played the sixth-hardest schedule and have a good offense. Unfortunately, things only get harder from here.
Green Bay has the second-hardest remaining schedule, which puts them at risk of missing the playoffs despite its strong start. With a group of NFC teams queuing up between four and six wins right now, 11 wins might be needed to be assured of a playoff spot without relying on tiebreaker scenarios.
8. Chicago Bears, 4-4
The Bears have been all over the map this season but are trending down on offense at the wrong moments. Their defense did not have a great game against the Cardinals, which, when combined with the end of the Washington game, has made for a bad week and a bit for this unit. The offense needs to get right quickly after scoring just 12 points per game in the last two weeks.
MORE: 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings and Grades
The positive spin for the Bears is that they get the Patriots this week in a game they should win. However, after that, they have the hardest remaining schedule this season, and they could even slip up this week if they look ahead to an incredibly tough stretch of games that follow.
Seven of their remaining nine games come against teams ranked in the top 10 of our PR+ metric (which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and applies a level of correction for strength of schedule).
9. Los Angeles Rams, 4-4
When you consider that the Rams have faced a brutal schedule and had major injury issues, sitting at 4-4 is impressive. This season had the feeling of falling away in the first few weeks, but they held firm and have now won three straight to get back to .500. The schedule going forward is easier, but it’s not one you would describe as “easy,” ranking as the 18th-toughest.
Los Angeles’ offense is a borderline top-10 unit, and it will need to overcome a defense that is slightly below average. Keeping the trio of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams on the field is vital so this offense can run a three-pronged spear. The division remains very much in play, but there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks along the way.
10. San Francisco 49ers, 4-4
It has been a thoroughly unconvincing season for the 49ers, but despite it all, they sit sixth in our PR+ metric. Coming off their bye, they should get Christian McCaffrey back, which will be a huge boost to a good-but-not-spectacular offense. The biggest area they need McCaffrey is in the red zone, where their offense ranks 28th in terms of efficiency.
The schedule is not ideal for San Francisco from here on out, ranking as the fourth-toughest in the league. That is considerably tougher than both the Rams and Cardinals and is a big part of the reason why the PFN Playoff Predictor has this division bordering on a coin flip still.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-5
The way the Buccaneers have fought in recent weeks is impressive, but their defense and the inability to get across the line is putting them in a tough spot. At full strength, this might be the second-best offense in the NFL. If the Bucs can just get their defense to be league-average, they can be competitive with any team.
According to our Offense+ Metric, the Commanders have the second-best offense in the NFL.
With the addition of Marshon Lattimore via trade, Washington bolsters their defense heading into the back half of the season. pic.twitter.com/s7NxqRFsxR
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
Things look a little bleak, and it could get worse in Week 10 against the 49ers. However, slipping to 4-6 is not a disaster by any means. Tampa Bay has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and only lost two of their five games by more than a score.
The Buccaneers’ schedule going forward is the easiest in the league, meaning they could easily run the table in the final seven weeks.
12. Seattle Seahawks, 4-5
Evaluating the Seahawks is tough because PFN’s metrics (Offense+, Defense+, and special teams) all tell you that this is an above-average team. However, they padded their stats with some good games against weak teams in the opening month of the season.
The Seahawks are now fourth in the division and face the third-hardest schedule in the NFL going forward. Despite a 3-0 start, this might now be a team that has half an eye on not getting embarrassed in terms of their schedule as opposed to pushing for a playoff spot.