Entering Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, only four spots in the 14-team playoff field have been accounted for. That total could double this weekend, as four more teams can clinch a spot: the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings and 9-4 Green Bay Packers in the NFC, along with the 8-5 Houston Texans and 10-3 Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC.
In addition, there’s another division-clinching scenario in play, as the streaking 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles can sew up the NFC East.
What needs to happen for each of these teams to clinch a postseason spot in Week 15? Let’s use PFN’s Playoff Predictor to find out.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios in Week 15
Aside from losses in Week 7-8 to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota has been perfect this season, exceeding all preseason expectations.
The Vikings are currently on a six-game win streak, their second win streak of five or more games this season. Despite this, Minnesota remains stuck a game behind the Lions, who are on their own franchise-record 11-game win streak.
PFN’s model gives the Vikings a 98.7% chance of making the playoffs, a 25.7% chance of winning their division, and a 7.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here’s what needs to happen for the Vikings to punch their postseason ticket in Week 15:
- MIN win/tie OR
- LAR loss/tie OR
- SEA loss/tie
The Vikings host the reeling 4-9 Chicago Bears in the first of two Monday Night Football games this week (8 ET on ABC).
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios in Week 15
The Packers are perfect against every team that currently has a worse record than them, but they’re 0-4 against the three NFC teams ahead of them in the standings (Vikings, Lions, Eagles). As a result, Green Bay appears destined for one of the Wild Card spots, though it will need a particular and unlikely scenario for it to occur this week.
PFN’s model gives the Packers a 94.8% chance of making the playoffs, a 3.7% chance of winning the NFC North, and a 6.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here’s how Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15:
- GB win + LAR/SF tie + ATL loss/tie
The Packers visit the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks, who are 8-5 after their fourth straight win.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios in Week 15
The Steelers lead the rival Baltimore Ravens by two games in the AFC North, so a formal division-clinching scenario won’t be on the table for at least another week. However, Pittsburgh can clinch its fourth playoff berth in the last six seasons in Week 15.
PFN’s model gives the Steelers a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs, a 66.1% chance of winning the AFC North, a 4.2% chance of earning the No. 1 seed, and a 5.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here’s how Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15:
- PIT win/tie OR
- IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie
The Steelers visit the NFC East-leading Eagles, who are 11-2 and in the midst of a nine-game win streak.
Houston Texans’ Division-Clinching Scenarios in Week 15
The Texans have had a roller-coaster season but are in firm control of a weak AFC South. Following a much-needed bye in Week 14, they can clinch the division for the eighth time in franchise history.
PFN’s model gives Houston an 84.5% chance of making the playoffs, a 76.2% chance of winning the division, and a 1.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here’s how the Texans can clinch the AFC South in Week 15:
- HOU win + IND loss
The Texans host the 6-7 Miami Dolphins, who are battling to stay in the AFC Wild Card hunt. The Indianapolis Colts visit the 8-5 Denver Broncos in a crucial game for what could be the conference’s final playoff spot.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Division-Clinching Scenarios in Week 15
The Eagles clinched a playoff spot last week with the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons both losing, along with the Lions winning. However, Philadelphia can take another step forward by formally clinching the NFC East this week.
PFN’s model gives Philly a 96.4% chance of winning the division, a 20.8% chance of earning the No. 1 seed, and an 11.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here’s how the Eagles can clinch the NFC East in Week 15:
- PHI win + WAS loss/tie OR
- PHI tie + WAS loss
The Eagles host the AFC North-leading Steelers (10-3) on Sunday. With a win, the Eagles can set a franchise record with their 10th straight win. Their current nine-game win streak is tied for a franchise record, having been accomplished in 2017, 2003, and 1960.
The Washington Commanders, who would surrender the division with a loss or tie, visit the injury-riddled New Orleans Saints (5-8).
For more possible playoff scenarios and to simulate the rest of the season, check out PFN’s Playoff Predictor!
