NFL Player Props to target for Thanksgiving Day games

What are the best NFL player props for the three Thanksgiving Day games in Week 12, and which players provide the most value?

It’s Week 12! Thanksgiving! Nine hours of football! 29 hours of indigestion! And the NFL player props … don’t forget about those. Here are some of the most interesting Thanksgiving Day player props and which NFL betting options I’d recommend for those who want one more reason to watch the games.

NFL Player Props for Week 12 | Lions vs. Bears

Just like always, Thanksgiving is kicking off with a Detroit-hosted contest featuring only a handful of impact players. What is the most likely game script for this game, and how might it impact player production?

For starters, the Lions’ season has objectively been a mess. We all knew they had a bottom-tier receiving corps, and most people ventured that Jared Goff would not be able to recapture his former glory (remember when he used to be a locked-in QB1?). But aside from D’Andre Swift and (occasionally) T.J. Hockenson, this team hasn’t garnered much offense, contributing to an abysmal 0-9-1 record.

The now Justin Fields-less Bears are struggling

Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t been much better, averaging the fourth-fewest points per game with only 16.3. Their middling defense has helped them stay competitive enough to own a 3-7 record, but of course, that’s not saying much.

QB placeholder Andy Dalton will get another start Thursday, while the underperforming Allen Robinson remains sidelined. David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney will dictate how this offense operates, with Marquise Goodwin and Cole Kmet serving as complementary pieces. I’m anticipating a game script that puts the ball in Montgomery and Swift’s hands. I would be shocked if they don’t combine for 40+ touches, and 50+ is quite possible.

Week 12 Point Spread Bet: Take the under on total points (41.5), assuming a fast-moving clock and grind-it-out yardage.

Week 12 Player Props Best Bets: Montgomery over 77.5 rushing yards (-115) and over 15.5 receiving yards (-120), and Swift over 32.5 receiving yards (-120).

NFL Player Props for Week 12 | Cowboys vs. Raiders

The Cowboys should win this one comfortably. I love their rebound potential against a Raiders team that is reeling after three straight losses. Dallas, even without Amari Cooper and a questionable CeeDee Lamb, has the firepower to put up 30+ points against a defense that’s yielding 4.5 yards per carry and has only 4 interceptions.

The Raiders are a team in turmoil, loaded with “solid” talent and an elite tight end in Darren Waller. But these past three losses against the Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals have exposed Derek Carr and Las Vegas as a mediocre team.

The Raiders have Darren Waller and not much else

I have cautioned repeatedly against trusting Las Vegas’ backfield, which is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Aside from Waller and perhaps Hunter Renfrow, there are no safe offensive options.

I’m anticipating a game script that puts Dallas ahead early and often while the Raiders are forced to abandon the run game by the third quarter. This will be a statement game for Dallas on national television, and it will be another reminder that the Raiders are not a playoff team until they upgrade at QB and running back.

Week 12 Point Spread Bet: Take the under on total points (51), assuming Dallas’ defense largely contains the Raiders.

Week 12 Player Props Best Bets: Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing TDs (-220) and Ezekiel Elliott under 14.5 rushing attempts (-115).

NFL Player Props for Week 12 | Saints vs. Bills

This is possibly the most interesting game of the day. If Buffalo loses, they’ll be in a dogfight with the Patriots for the AFC East title. If New Orleans loses, their postseason hopes will look as dim as ever.

Starting with the Bills, any of nine players could have an impact. That’s an insanely high number, and it makes prognosticating that much tougher. The recent ascension of Matt Breida and the return of Dawson Knox have muddled an offense that already featured different heroes in different weeks. The opposing Saints have the best run defense in the league (3.4 yards per carry), but that didn’t prevent Philadelphia from running all over them last weekend. It will be interesting to see if that was an anomaly or a sign of things to come.

As for New Orleans, their backfield situation remains in flux as of Wednesday afternoon. The problem is that the Saints don’t have any reliable receivers, and ascending TE Adam Trautman is out for 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. To make matters worse, Buffalo boasts the NFL’s best pass defense since 2009 (62.2 opposing QB rating). For the Saints to move the ball, they will need rush the ball.

I’m anticipating a game script that favors the Bills. The ripple effect will include Trevor Siemian passing more than the Saints want him to, targeting receivers who probably wouldn’t start on most other teams. It’s a recipe for disaster. I believe there’s a good chance Buffalo will force 3 turnovers and score at least 1 defensive touchdown. Like the Raiders, the Saints are on the decline, and they don’t have the playmakers to dig out of a big hole.

Week 12 Point Spread Bet: Take the under on total points (45), assuming Buffalo’s defense shuts down New Orleans.

Week 12 Player Props Best Bets: Josh Allen under 274.5 passing yards (-115) and under 32.5 rushing yards (-115).

BJ Rudell is the Fantasy Football Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here, listen to him on PFN’s Fantasy Football podcast, and check out his contributions in PFN’s free fantasy newsletter. Give him a follow on Twitter: @BJRudell.