Week 14 was a tough week with some bitter pills to swallow as I went 2-3 on my picks. Not a disastrous week, but a shame to have lost the momentum that had been building. My initial feel last week was not that comfortable, with a lot of inconsistent situations, but this week looks to have more opportunities to exploit. Before we get into the NFL picks for Week 15 of the season, let’s take a look at what we can learn from Week 14.
Week 14 lessons
The Lions are driving me a little bit insane in the last couple of weeks. I bet against them on Thanksgiving, and they surprised us against a good defense. I bet on them last week, and they had a nightmare against a mediocre defense. The lesson last week is to believe my thoughts from Thanksgiving. That was the notion that the Lions getting to 20 was somewhat of a fluke based solely on that long touchdown on the blown coverage. As long as David Blough is under center, the Lions are a team to stay away from unless their line creeps over 20 points, which is unlikely.
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks loss was equally as frustrating. The Seahawks just simply did not show up. There were also a lot of points left on the field in missed field goals, failed fourth-down attempts in field-goal range, and a missed touchdown on a wide-open receiver from a Rams trick play. I still feel like both of these teams are prime teams to look towards overs in their games.
The loss on the Atlanta Falcons over was frustrating because the Panthers just fell apart from mid-way through the second quarter. Before that, neither offense was really rolling, and then giveaways and weak defense gave the Falcons room to go wild. Anytime you bet the under, you are always a turnover or two away from things going wrong, and that is precisely what happened here.
Now onto the victories. The Green Bay Packers continue to be the most Jekyll and Hyde team on offense. One drive they look incredible, and on the next, they can barely move the ball. This one did have me worried when they scored 14 in the first quarter, but they only added six more points in the remaining 45 minutes. As for the Tennessee Titans, wow, simply wow. Their offense is clicking, and they could have another chance to go big this week against a mediocre Houston Texans defense.
Week 14 totals and picks
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
It has been a weird few weeks for the Green Bay Packers. Ever since their trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, their offense has not looked quite right. Yes, they scored 31 points against the New York Giants, but even that did not look comfortable. They looked right last week in the first quarter, scoring 14 points, but they stagnated after that, scoring just six points in the remaining three quarters. The Bears defense ranks fourth in the league in points allowed, allowing an average of just 17.85 points per game.
1u – Green Bay Packers Under 23.5 Total Points | -110
The Bears offense has been gaining steam lately, averaging 27.5 points per game the last two weeks. Trubisky and this run game see to be clicking finally, and now they face a Packers defense, which has looked vulnerable to solid offensive play recently. Yes, they have allowed just 28 points total in their two most recent games, but those came against the Redskins and Giants, both of which the Bears offense is better than. Take the over here in a game in which I see the Bears scoring 17-20 points.
1u – Chicago Bears Over 16.5 Total Points | -138
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
It is hard to consider the Chiefs offense as struggling, but we did see the ability of the Patriots to limit them last week. They still managed 23 points, but the entire offense looked disjointed. Patrick Mahomes has been struggling with an injury, and this Broncos team tormented Deshaun Watson last week before allowing 21 points in the second half when the contest had already been decided. This game should be closer, meaning the Broncos will play hard to the end. Four touchdowns plus just feels like too much in this one.
1u – Kansas City Chiefs Under 28.5 Total Points | -120
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
The Eagles offense is a mess. They labored to 23 points against the Giants and even required overtime to get there. The Redskins have a lot of problems, but their defense is at least solid. Last week they restricted a solid Packers offense to 20 points. They should be able to do at least that in this NFC East battle, which tend to be low scoring games late in the season.
1u – Philadelphia Eagles Under 23.5 Total Points | -125
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
This Tampa Bay offense is on fire right now. They have scored over 30 points in four of the last six weeks, and twice in the last three. Over their last three games, they are averaging 33.67 points and now face a Lions team whose season is done. The Lions have been solid in their last three outings, but two of those have been divisional matchups, and the third was the Redskins, whose offense is poor. I just do not see them having any real motivation for this game, while the Buccaneers are still trying to work a lot out. Winston is fighting for a contract, and this team will want to prove that if the schedule had been kinder, then just maybe they would have been a playoff team.
1u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26.5 Total Points | -120
Ben Rolfe is an NFL picks writer and editor at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on Twitter. For more gambling information and all of our writers NFL Week 11 picks, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.