Week 4 was a strange week. Road teams and underdogs did not just cover the spread, but they won left, right and center. Road teams were 11-5 straight up in Week 4, including 7-1 in the 1 pm window and 3-1 in the 4 pm window. Scoring was also somewhat crazy last week and it manifested in the second week of struggles for us. Another 1-4 week when it comes to NFL picks has left me at 9-11 on the season. However, once again, some valuable lessons were learned from last week’s losses that we can take forward into the rest of the season.
The biggest lesson was that injuries can be killers when it comes to totals. The Colts offense without T.Y. Hilton was always going to have struggles, and that manifested itself in them failing to get over 26 points against the Raiders. However, saying that, they still scored 24 and missed a field goal, which would have seen the over hit. Yes, we were on the wrong side of this, but it was a tough beat. The lesson? Beware the Colts offense without Hilton, and Adam Vinatieri‘s struggles are a nightmare for the Colts and betters alike.
Another injury that killed us was the loss of Terry McLaurin for the Redskins. McLaurin has added another dimension to their offense, and when he went down the over in the Redskins game was in trouble. Unfortunately, McLaurin suffered the injury after this article was published and there was not a lot we could do but hope he was able to suit up on the day. He could not, and sadly the Redskins offense flopped no matter who was at quarterback.
The other two losses were simply miss-reads on my part. The Ravens defense has demonstrated it can be vulnerable to the run a couple of times this season, and the Browns exploited that to score big on them, despite their early offensive struggles. As for the Cardinals game, that offense is a nightmare to judge week-to-week. Unfortunately, the Seahawks are the wrong team to rely on running up the score, as they prefer to grind teams down with long drives when leading. I should have known better than playing the over on a Seahawks game, their offense is sneakily good in multiple facets and can lean on whichever element they need depending on the situation.
In Week 4, we saw a swing back to the under with nine of the 15 games going under. After a week with ten overs in Week 3, we were right back to that average of six in Week 4. Was Week 3 a fluke or did sportsbooks and bettors overreact to the drop in offensive holding penalties from Week 3 with the Week 4 lines?Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the PFN betting group has over $200 of profit despite the industry in a 2019 funk. With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Passthat'll pay for itself and more.