Week 2 of our NFL odds totals article got off to a great start as we went 3-0 on totals in the early window of games. However, the Saints at Rams and Eagles at Falcons games dragged us back to a 3-2 record on the week. However, profit is profit and we now sit at a nice 7-3 on the season entering Week 3.
This season so far has been about low scoring games, with the under going 20-12 through the first 32 games. There is nearly always a correction back the other way at some point, but for now, with sloppy offense having been on show in the first two weeks, let’s continue to ride the under into Week 3.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
This game should not even be a question mark. It is between one team that is expected to challenge for a potential Super Bowl spot, and another team generally expected to struggle to get to 8-8. However, the Eagles have stumbled a little out of the gate this season. They were given a scare at home to the Redskins in Week 1, before falling to a late Falcons rally in Week 2. In contrast, the Lions shot themselves in the foot in Week 1 before pulling out a win against the Chargers in Week 2.
So far this season, the Eagles have yet to score a point in the first quarter and only have 13 of their 52 points in the first half of games. They tend to pick up the pace in the second half, but their sluggish early offense has opened up an angle for us.
The Detroit Lions have been solid on defense this season, disregarding a late-game meltdown against the Cardinals. In their two games, they have allowed a total of 37 points, and just 13 in the first half. Their offense has also had its issues as they have totaled just 13 points and really struggled to move the ball against the Chargers. I think they will have more success against the dreadful secondary of the Eagles, but it might take time to open the offense on the road against a talented defensive line. I am expecting this game to have a sluggish start before it gets fun in the second half.
1u – Under 22.5 First Half Points | -110
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
These two offenses have looked absolutely fine this season, but they have struggled to really make their mark. The Vikings average 22 points per game but have relied mostly on their run game to generate points. The Raiders are averaging just 17 points per game and will have to contend with the difficulties of being a West Coast team playing in the one o’clock time slot. Both defenses are reasonably solid. Besides a 28 point second quarter, the Raiders did a solid job on the Chiefs offense this past week. Now they face the much less explosive Vikings offense. Vikings home games have seen the under go 7-2 over the last two seasons, and I am expecting to see the eighth under here in this one.
1u – Under 43.5 Total Points | -110
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns
This is a surprising matchup to be considering the under in, but I have concerns about both offenses. The concern stems mainly from their offensive lines. The Browns looked unimpressive for the large part in their defeat of the Jets, and only scored 23 points thanks to a breakaway 87-yard touchdown by Odell Beckham. They have managed just 36 points this season and a big part of the problem has been their offensive line.
Equally, the Rams offensive line has had some issues, but they have been masked by facing mediocre defensive lines. Now they face one of the most talented defensive lines in the game on Sunday Night Football. The Browns rank second in the league in sacks and could add to that against a quarterback in Jared Goff who has been sacked four times this season. All of the smart money is coming in on the under with the line already having moved down two points. However, I still think this line is a fraction on the high side in a game which could be dominated by defensive lines.
1u – Under 49 Total Points | -110
New York Jets at New England Patriots
The question here is how many points do you think the Patriots score? Are they going to keep putting their foot to the throat of teams? If so, then this could get dicey. However, the Jets demonstrated they could be reasonably solid on defense against the Browns. The reason why this is all about New England is that it is hard to worry about the Jets offense. With third-string quarterback Luke Falk starting on an offense which has scored just 19 points this season against a Patriots defense who has yet to allow a touchdown.
The Jets total in this game has been set at 10.5, which is ridiculously low. However, the fact I might have even considered backing the under shows how big the disparity might be between these two teams. Since the beginning of last season, the under is 7-3 when the Patriots play at home and 7-2 in the regular season. The Patriots offense will likely make this one close, but they should not get back to 40 this week unless the Jets also hand them two defensive touchdowns!
1u – Under 43.5 Total Points | -110
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
The last two picks have looked at the over/under record of teams at home, but in this one the road record is significant. Since the beginning of last season, the under is 7-2 in Saints road games, and that was with Drew Brees under center. Now the Saints head to Seattle, where the atmosphere will make it tough for Teddy Bridgewater. Additionally, the Seahawks offense has looked slow at times this year, and their run game is due to get started. This game has the feeling of a tight low scoring affair where we learn a lot about both teams.
1u – Under 45 Total Points | -110
Ben Rolfe is a gambling writer and editor for the NFC South and North at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and bets, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.