NFL MVP Race Week 14: Jonathan Taylor impresses, but is Tom Brady overvalued and Dak Prescott a dark horse?

How is the NFL MVP race shaping up entering Week 14? Could a non-QB win the award, and should Tom Brady really be the favorite?

Heading into Monday Night Football, what is the status of the 2021 NFL MVP race? Where does the race for MVP stand as we start to look towards Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season? Can any player other than a QB still win it, and is there anyone that might be a value right now? Let’s break down the NFL odds.

NFL MVP race heading into Week 14

  • Tom Brady +175
  • Josh Allen +500
  • Aaron Rodgers +600
  • Kyler Murray +1000
  • Dak Prescott +1200
  • Patrick Mahomes +1600
  • Matthew Stafford +1600
  • Jonathan Taylor +1800
  • Justin Herbert +1800
  • Lamar Jackson +2500
  • Cooper Kupp +4000

Jonathan Taylor once again helped his case in the NFL MVP race heading into Week 14

After his streak of 100 total yards and a touchdown came to an end against the Buccaneers, Jonathan Taylor got right back on the horse this week. He rushed for 143 yards on 32 attempts, adding 2 touchdowns as the Colts won convincingly against the Texans. While this performance improved his odds, beating up on the Texans will not make a significant difference in the 2021 NFL MVP race.

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However, after his Week 14 bye, Taylor will have some significant opportunities to make his case for the MVP award. The Colts face the Patriots and Cardinals in prime spots in back-to-back weeks. In Week 14, they play on Saturday Night Football, before facing the Cardinals in the primetime Christmas Day game. Two big performances in a national spotlight could significantly alter the 2021 MVP race.

Tom Brady makes his mark while Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott keep themselves in the game

As other contenders fall away, Tom Brady stands tall atop the race for NFL MVP. He leads the league in passing yards (3,771), passing yards per game (314.3), and touchdowns (34) heading into Week 14. However, PFN’s Offensive Value Metric (OVM) suggests that Brady may not provide as much value to the offense as it seems.

OVM grades players on the value they add to their offense based on elements within their control. Based on the metric, Brady is just providing average value at the position to his offense.

When we look to Next Gen Stats, Brady is completing passes at a rate 0.5% below expectations. That is despite ranking below average at the position in terms of aggression.

With the talent around him, Brady is not being asked to do that much to elevate the offense. The numbers he is putting together look appealing, but they are based on the talent around him as much as they are on Brady making plays.

Murray and Prescott are elevating the offenses around them

Two other QBs in the MVP race are surrounded by talent but are also elevating the talent around them — Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott. Both are currently inside the top three in terms of value added within their environment this season, according to OVM.

Both are playing on teams in the thick of the NFL playoff race right now. The Cowboys’ recent struggles have hurt Prescott’s chances, while the Cardinals going 2-1 without Murray did not help his credentials in the 2021 NFL MVP race. However, both will have significant opportunities down the stretch to demonstrate they deserve to win the award.

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