NFL MVP Race Week 13: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen improve stock while Joe Burrow remains a sleeper candidate

Who improved their stock in the 2021 NFL MVP race heading into Week 13, and which player might be an intriguing long-shot candidate?

Much like everything in the 2021 NFL season, the MVP race has had multiple twists and turns over the course of the year. Where does the NFL MVP race stand heading into Week 13, and which players might present some value right now?

NFL MVP race heading into Week 13

  • Tom Brady +350
  • Josh Allen +450
  • Aaron Rodgers +600
  • Kyler Murray +1000
  • Patrick Mahomes +1200
  • Dak Prescott +1200
  • Matthew Stafford +1600
  • Lamar Jackson +1600
  • Justin Herbert +1800
  • Jonathan Taylor +1800
  • Cooper Kupp +3500
  • Derek Carr +4000
  • Joe Burrow +4000

Jonathan Taylor continues to improve his position in the 2021 MVP race

Jonathan Taylor’s odds to win the 2021 MVP award continue to fall after yet another strong show, despite a loss in Week 12. Taylor matched 2006 MVP LaDainian Tomlinson with nine straight games of 100 total yards and a touchdown. He narrowly failed to beat Tomlinson’s record, falling an agonizing 3 yards short in the Colts’ loss to the Buccaneers.

However, despite the streak ending and the Colts losing, Taylor’s NFL odds for the 2021 NFL MVP race fell again heading into Week 13. Taylor is now under the +2000 mark for the first time (+1800). He is still an outsider for the award and almost needs to be perfect down the stretch. But heading into a soft matchup with the Texans, he has a chance to improve his stock further.

Josh Allen’s MVP odds improve in Thanksgiving showing while Joe Burrow remains a dark horse

Playing in prime-time games can be a huge boost for MVP chances, and Josh Allen got that boost in Week 12. He completed 82.14% of his passes as he threw for 260 yards with 4 touchdowns. According to Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric, Allen was the second-most valuable QB to his offense in Week 12 (pre-Monday Night Football).

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Allen’s odds might have even tumbled further if he had not thrown 2 interceptions in the game Thursday. The Bills QB will get another chance to improve his standing in the NFL MVP race in prime time in Week 13. Buffalo faces their division rival, the New England Patriots, with first place in the AFC East on the line. Another strong showing from Allen could boost him above Tom Brady into first place. However, facing a Bill Belichick-run defense also can put a major doubt in Allen’s chances if he struggles.

Burrow’s value in Cincinnati is being overlooked

After a disastrous outing in Week 9, Joe Burrow has taken a back seat to the run game in the last two weeks. However, the Bengals QB still managed to have a strong showing in Week 12. He averaged an impressive 7.92 yards per attempt while completing 83.33% of his passes. Even with odds at +4000, Burrow should still be in contention in the 2021 NFL MVP race heading into Week 13.

OVM grades Burrow as both the most valuable QB to his offense in Week 12 and overall this season. If we look at Next Gen Stats, no QB has been more aggressive than Burrow this year. Additionally, Burrow is the third-best QB in the league this year in completion percentage above expectation. There is a lot to like about the way Burrow is playing, and if the Bengals finish strong, he has a great chance to be MVP despite throwing 12 interceptions so far this season.

Ben Rolfe is a Senior Managing Editor at Pro Football Network and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can find him on Twitter @BenRolfePFN.


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