The NFL playoff race is quickly becoming the most important topic across the league as we enter Week 13. As we’re finding out the true Super Bowl contenders, the NFL MVP race is also becoming clearer.
It’s safe to project the MVP award to a playoff participant. We know Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is one of the top contenders for MVP, but could we see a running back or wide receiver win the race?
We’ll also look at the cases for Bills receiver Stefon Diggs and New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson as we head into their Thursday Night Football matchup. Let’s dive into the 2022 NFL MVP odds entering Week 13.
NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 13
Let’s take a look at the 10 players with the best odds of winning the NFL MVP award entering Week 13, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to read our analysis of all NFL and CFB sports betting.
- Patrick Mahomes
QB, Kansas City Chiefs (-160)
- Jalen Hurts
QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+350)
- Tua Tagovailoa
QB, Miami Dolphins (+500)
- Josh Allen
QB, Buffalo Bills (+1400)
- Joe Burrow
QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
- Lamar Jackson
QB, Baltimore Ravens (+6000)
- Geno Smith
QB, Seattle Seahawks (+8000)
- Kirk Cousins
QB, Minnesota Vikings (+8000)
- Tyreek Hill
WR, Miami Dolphins (+10000)
- Justin Jefferson
WR, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
Can Josh Allen Win MVP in 2022?
After being optimistic Allen would buy some goodwill back on Thanksgiving against the lowly Detroit Lions defense, Allen is firmly an underdog now. He’s struggled over the last month, not only dealing with an elbow injury but also seeing a major drop in efficiency and decision-making. He completed only 57.14% of his passes against the Lions, and Buffalo likely loses if he doesn’t run for 78 yards and a score.
Allen has been missing short throws that we’re used to seeing him hit. He’s thrown for more than 253 yards just once since Week 6 and was under 219 yards in three of his last five games. At this point, he’s a bigger threat as a runner than a passer.
Dropping from the MVP favorite in just the span of three weeks, Allen has lost all momentum to win the award. He’s a bad value at +1600, and preseason bettors should give up hope of those bets cashing. Playing a top-six defense that has played extremely well against the pass also doesn’t bode especially well.
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I don’t think it’s likely Allen claws his way back into the MVP race. He’s been outplayed by Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts has been more consistent on the league’s best team. Losing momentum in the MVP race can mark the immediate end of one’s candidacy.
It feels strange to already rule out Allen, considering his team has an 8-3 record, and he’s second in passing yards on the season. But Allen simply hasn’t met the incredibly high bar set by his peers.
Can Stefon Diggs Win MVP in 2022?
A wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP award, as quarterbacks and running backs have claimed every offensive nomination since the award’s inception.
For as well as Diggs has played — ranking No. 2 in the NFL in catches — and third in yards and touchdowns, he hasn’t been as dominant in his performance as someone like Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, or Calvin Johnson were. He’d have to be one of those all-timers to have even a relative shot to win MVP.
Nevertheless, Diggs has been one of the two most valuable players on the Bills’ roster this season. He’s a worthy Offensive Player of the Year candidate despite having the eighth-best odds to win. He just happens to be facing superhuman performers in Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, plus Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes are eligible for OPOY.
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Diggs’ matchup against the Patriots is favorable. Though Allen has been struggling, Diggs hasn’t seen much of a drop in production. He has seven straight games with 93 or more yards or one touchdown scored. He’s hit both marks in five games this season.
Can the Patriots contain Diggs? They held him to 11 receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown in two games last year. His Week 15 performance in 2021 was the stronger of both games, producing seven scores for 85 yards and the touchdown.
The Patriots are hoping to slow the speedster down and prevent a complete takeover.
Can Rhamondre Stevenson Win MVP in 2022?
Ranked 15th in the league in rushing yards and 77th in receiving yards, there’s no way Stevenson will win MVP or even NFL Offensive Player of the Year. No odds are listed for him. Still, Stevenson has been very good in a milquetoast offense that has lacked any other form of playmaking.
The second-year stud has already surpassed his production from last year, averaging 11.3 more rushing yards and 22.3 receiving yards more per game. Stevenson’s shown his versatility over the last two weeks, producing 132 receiving yards as the running game has come to a halt. New England’s rushing game was stifled against the Jets and Vikings, and Stevenson had only 62 ground yards.
He’s certainly the key X-factor for Week 13’s matchup against the Bills. The Patriots’ passing attack has been either brilliant or terrible. Mac Jones is coming off, arguably, his best career game at Minnesota. If he can’t replicate that success, then Stevenson will carry a heavy load.