After two weeks in which he is leading the league in passing yards per game with his team sitting at 2-0, Tua Tagovailoa (+600) now has the shortest NFL MVP odds, making him the new betting favorite to win the award. Next behind Tua is Patrick Mahomes (+700), followed by Josh Allen (+800), Jalen Hurts (+850), and Lamar Jackson (+1200) to round out the top five.
The two players whose odds have taken the biggest hit since the start of the season are Joe Burrow and Justin Fields. Prior to Week 1, Burrow had the second-shortest odds behind Mahomes at +750.
After an 0-2 start, with a possibly reinjured calf, Burrow’s current odds are just +2000. Fields, meanwhile, was the most popular MVP bet before the season at +2000, but his odds have increased dramatically, now at +7000.
Tua has been the biggest riser in the way-too-early NFL MVP race, but there is another player who is playing himself into the conversation, and it isn’t a quarterback. That would be Dallas Cowboys star pass rusher Micah Parsons.
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Micah Parsons NFL MVP Odds Update
According to Max Meyer, Senior Editor at PointsBet, Micah Parsons’ MVP odds have shifted from +10000 to +4000 since the start of the season. Parsons’ three sacks in two games on the NFL’s top defense is a big reason for this movement, but so is the amount of action at PointsBet.
Since Sept. 7, more than 17% of the NFL MVP bets made at PointsBet have been on Parsons, which is more than any other player.
Before the season, virtually nobody at PointsBet was betting on Parsons to win MVP. Prior to Week 1, just 0.5% of the MVP tickets and 0.2% of the handle were on Parsons.
We all know that this is a quarterback award, but when a different position wins MVP, it’s usually still an offensive player. Since 2000, the only four players to win NFL MVP that weren’t quarterbacks were running backs, with Adrian Peterson being the most recent winner (2012).
Meanwhile, a defensive player hasn’t won MVP since Lawrence Taylor did in 1986. However, if there’s any defensive player to snap this 37-year drought, it’s Parsons, who has drawn the most LT comparisons since the Hall of Famer retired.