The Detroit Lions made history in 2023 with their first-ever NFC North title, but the Green Bay Packers snuck into the playoffs as well and took down the NFC’s No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears missed out on the dance and are resetting under center.
Is the veteran at the helm in Detroit a potential candidate to win the league’s highest individual honor? Green Bay and Chicago have young stars who will push him for the position, but Minnesota has one of the league’s brightest superstars.
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the NFC North.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each NFC North Team
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (+5000)
Of all the additions the Chicago Bears have made this offseason, the only player who will likely be credited with leading their success, if they have any, is rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
The Bears decided to move on from Justin Fields and draft Williams first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Barring injury, he will almost certainly start this season.
Williams has been put in the best position of arguably any top-five selection at the QB position ever. Chicago added Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift in free agency and then drafted Rome Odunze. That has surrounded Williams with a wealth of talent, which should help this offense to click in 2024.
While Swift is a good running back, and both Allen and Moore are wonderful pass catchers, none is likely to have a Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill-level impact. Therefore, if anyone is going to receive the MVP award in Chicago, it will be Williams.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (+2000)
It’s only a matter of time until we change the labeling of this award to the MVQB: 16 of the past 17 winners have been signal callers, including a current run of 11 straight. Taking snaps is the first unofficial qualifier for this honor, and not far behind is team success, as only once since 2003 has the MVP gone to a quarterback leading a team that lost more than four games during the regular season.
In that vein, I labeled my betting pool as the quarterbacks on the top-10 teams in terms of implied win totals. The QBs who have hoisted the trophy have been heavily relied upon, rarely sharing a backfield with a heavily involved traditional back. In fact, over the past decade, the lead running back playing alongside the MVP averaged 949.2 rushing yards for the season.
It’s time to start eliminating names. Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers all checked the implied wins box, but all have a star RB whose rushing yardage total is posted at or above 975.
With six names remaining on my list, I elected to look at how these quarterbacks have produced their video game numbers.
MVP winners:
- 2014-19: 9.0 average depth of target (aDOT)
- 2020-23: 7.8 average depth of target
This trend helps me eliminate four more names. We need volume statistics, and these short passes have proven to be the best way of doing that.
Gone is C.J. Stroud (aDOT rose by 21% in the second half of his season, and Year 2 QBs have posted a higher aDOT than Year 1 QBs over the past decade). The award’s favorite, Patrick Mahomes, has a downward-trending aDOT, but the construction of this roster hints that we could see that change in 2024.
The general perception of the Buffalo Bills after Joe Brady took over was one of conservative nature, but Josh Allen’s aDOT actually rose by 8.3% after the change in OC (not to mention that James Cook averaged 16.7 carries per game over that stretch and is someone I’d bet to clear that 950 rushing yard threshold from earlier).
Dak Prescott saw his aDOT increase last season and posted the highest deep ball completion percentage of his career. With the Cowboys allowing pressure at the fifth-lowest rate, the time to throw those passes makes him a good bet to produce similar numbers this season.
That’s right, this is a Joe Burrow vs. Jared Goff situation for me. I think Burrow is the greater talent, but there is certainly more health risk in his profile. Beyond that, 35.3% of NFL games are played within your own division.
AFC North Defensive EPA Ranks:
- Browns: 1st
- Ravens: 3rd
- Steelers: 7th
NFC North Defensive EPA Ranks:
- Bears: 14th
- Vikings: 20th
- Packers: 23rd
AFC North opponents allowed 66.3% of yards to come through the air compared to 68.4% by the NFC North. This isn’t directly a fantasy football-based award, though eye-popping statistics certainly help. With divisional games backloaded, Goff could separate himself down the stretch much like Jackson did last season.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (+1400)
Jordan Love jumped out of the shadow of Aaron Rodgers with an impressive 2023 season, his first as a starter. Love finished with 32 touchdowns and 4,159 yards as the Green Bay Packers ended the year with a 9-8 record. That performance in his first season has meant that Love heads into the 2024 season with the fifth-shortest odds of any MVP candidate.
For that to become a reality, we need to see further growth from Love and the Packers’ offense, as they finished in the middle of the pack in a number of offensive categories last year. One area that they could easily improve is their red-zone efficiency.
Per TruMedia, the Packers ranked 19th in the league with a 51.6% conversion rate of red-zone opportunities to touchdowns, despite having a 95% conversion rate on goal-to-go opportunities. If Love and the Packers can get into the top 10 in red-zone efficiency, they will put themselves in the conversations with the elite offenses and put Love firmly in the MVP discussion.
– Rolfe
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (+13000)
Trends are made to be broken, and if the Vikings win the NFC North, we have a decent chance of getting the first receiver to earn MVP honors.
Justin Jefferson has done everything and more than you could ask for through four seasons, setting records every step of the way. If he can drag this team to the postseason with a journeyman or rookie under center, a star tight end on the shelf to start the season, and his WR2 in legal hot water — he’d be well deserving of the MVP.
Outside of Jefferson, what is Minnesota’s path to success in 2024?
– Soppe
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