The Kansas City Chiefs are the benchmark for success — not just in the AFC West but across the NFL. A large reason for it is the multi-MVP recipient who plays under center in Arrowhead.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers are fighting to catch up, and to do so they would need big seasons from their most important stars.
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the AFC West.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each AFC West Team
Denver Broncos: Patrick Surtain II (+100000)
You have to go back to 1986 to find the last defensive player to win NFL MVP, which was when Lawrence Taylor took home the award. That season, Lawrence had 20.5 sacks as the New York Giants went 14-2 on their way to winning the NFC East, the NFC, and Super Bowl XXI.
Patrick Surtain’s path to the MVP award would look a little different, mainly because he is not sacking anyone. For Surtain to have any chance in the conversation, he would likely need to come close to setting a single-season record for interceptions (15) and pick-sixes (6) and probably also need to contribute on special teams with some kick or punt return touchdowns.
Even then, the Broncos’ path to a double-digit win season is slim, and it is hard to imagine a defensive player on a 9-8 win team taking home the MVP. It could happen, but it isn’t necessarily likely.
If the Broncos do surprise and make the playoffs with Surtain posting huge numbers, it is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t be betting on it.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (+475)
As a two-time NFL MVP in the last six seasons, it does not take much extrapolating to see how Patrick Mahomes can win the award for a third time. We can simply compare what he did in 2018 and 2022 to the years he missed out on the award to see what kind of statistical numbers Mahomes has to put up in 2024.
In the two seasons he won the MVP, Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns with 50 and 41, respectively. Those two seasons were not his best in terms of protecting the ball, demonstrating that the positive plays are a bigger element in Mahomes’ candidacy than the negative. In 2018 and 2022, Mahomes also led the league in ESPN’s QBR.
The team outcome is not a major part of Mahomes’ MVP candidacy because the Chiefs finished 14-2 in 2020, and he finished third in the voting.
The bigger element is avoiding poor performances in primetime or spotlight games, as we saw on Christmas Day last year. In a national game, Mahomes seemingly melted down at home and largely dropped out of the MVP conversation in that moment.
The path to Mahomes’s MVP award win is easy, but the value at +475 leaves little room for error. If you want to back Mahomes, you are better off waiting until he has a rough game and looking for longer odds. It is not a guarantee that he will have a bad game, but I believe we will see odds longer than +500 at some point this year.
– Rolfe
Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams (+40000)
When the quarterback position lacks star power, it opens an opportunity for other positions to shine as the best player on the team from an MVP candidacy perspective. In Las Vegas, that candidate is Davante Adams, but the path to Adams winning MVP is not an easy one to figure out.
Entering the 2022 season, Adams was set to benefit personally from being out of Aaron Rodgers’s shadow. In 2020, Adams scored 18 touchdowns, but not only did he not get a single MVP vote, he did not even get a single Offensive Player of the Year vote.
However, in his first year in Las Vegas in 2022, Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns but still was not considered for the MVP or OPOY award. It is not like the Las Vegas Raiders were ignored, with Josh Jacobs finishing fifth in OPOY voting, it was just Adams did not get the votes.
Therefore, Adams has to be looking at needing to post close to 2,000 receiving yards or 20+ receiving touchdowns to receive serious MVP consideration. A relative lack of competition at the WR position will help, but with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell throwing him the ball, posting those gaudy numbers is a tough ask for a 31-year-old receiver.
– Rolfe
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert (+2200)
Selecting Justin Herbert here was not actually as clear-cut as it could have been. While Herbert is undoubtedly a star, the combination of a preseason injury and the change of coaching staff could hurt his chances.
Jim Harbaugh’s last spell in the NFL saw him lean heavily on a power run game, which could take away from the big number Herbert would need to post to win MVP.
While Herbert can move around and make plays with his legs, he is not known as a mobile quarterback. Therefore, it is not like he can make his MVP case by being a dual-threat quarterback.
If the offensive style of Harbaugh and Greg Roman take the ball out of Herbert’s hands more than previously, he may lack the opportunity to stake an MVP claim.
The problem is that there is no other obvious candidate on the roster to step into the breach. Gus Edwards is not a Christian McCaffrey-style player, and J.K. Dobbins may be limited as he returns from injury. Similarly, at WR, there is no Tyreek Hill-style player who could dominate the headlines and put themselves in the frame.
That leaves Herbert as the top option. But at his current odds, he is a player I am avoiding when considering betting on the MVP award.
– Rolfe
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