1 Player on Every AFC Team Who Could Take Home the NFL MVP Award: Could Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Aaron Rodgers Earn More Hardware?

The AFC might have the best crop of QB talent in the NFL, and each of the last six MVPs has gone to players currently in that conference. But beyond the signal-callers, there are plenty of pass-catchers — and even one defender — who grace this list.

As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the AFC.

Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each AFC Team

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson (+1500)

Back-to-back MVP awards aren’t unheard of — five players have combined to win them six times (Peyton Manning did it twice).

Can Lamar Jackson join that list? I think he’s the most likely Raven to earn the award, but there’s a reason he’s only sixth in the betting markets.

The addition of Derrick Henry this offseason is great for Baltimore but a net negative for Jackson’s MVP case. The Ravens don’t have much room for their team success to increase and while Jackson is a uniquely gifted player, he benefited greatly from injuries/slumps to other QBs in the MVP conversation.

– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (+900)

Josh Allen has to eventually win one of these, right?

He’s now finished fifth, third, and second in MVP voting in three of the past four years. No one can convince me he shouldn’t have won it last season, throwing for 29 touchdowns and rushing for 15. Allen completely carried the Bills to the playoffs after the team looked dead and buried.

With the loss of Stefon Diggs, everyone seems to be writing the Bills off as serious contenders. This team hinges on Allen. He’s more than capable of carrying a weak supporting cast because he’s that good.

At +900, Allen is still tied with Joe Burrow as the third favorite. So, the odds aren’t great. But I truly believe if Buffalo didn’t choke away a few games last year and wound up going 13-4 or 14-3, Allen would’ve won it. He still has the “never won it before” thing going for him. Plus, there’s quite literally no one else on the Bills even remotely capable.

– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (+900)

Joe Burrow put up the worst numbers of his career through 10 games, then suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Yet, per DraftKings, he’s still tied for the third-best odds to win the NFL MVP award.

With all due respect to Ja’Marr Chase, no other player is in the same solar system when it comes to his value to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Playing at an elite level, as Burrow did in the 2021 run to Super Bowl LVI and the return trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2022, should be enough proof of Burrow’s value to the franchise.

But if you need more, consider what the team looked like, losing three of its first four, when Burrow was compromised with the calf injury to start 2023.

Or look at what happened when he went out with the wrist injury. Jake Browning came in and played better than anyone could have imagined, putting up historic numbers for a quarterback in his first few starts in addition to leading the league in completion percentage. And the Bengals still went 4-3 with him at the helm.

– Jay Morrison, Cincinnati Bengals Beat Writer

Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper (+30000)

Skill position players are never a great bet to win the award. That said, if someone from Cleveland is going to make a push, it’s the team’s WR1 in Amari Cooper. For his career, he averages 7.7 targets per game (131 per 17 games).

If we simply pull out the napkin and do a little math, that could result in a monster season. If we assume 131 targets for Cooper and extrapolate his production when Deshaun Watson was throwing him the ball last season — we are talking about 94 receptions for 1,611 yards.

For Cooper to pull off this monumental upset, the Browns would have to run hot and impress at the tail end of the season. Well, they finish with four straight games against high-powered offenses where they are going to need to put up points (Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens).

If Cooper has a huge game and the Browns win the division because of a win in Baltimore on the final day of the regular season … maybe?

– Soppe

Denver Broncos: Patrick Surtain II (+100000)

You have to go back to 1986 to find the last defensive player to win NFL MVP, which was when Lawrence Taylor took home the award. That season, Lawrence had 20.5 sacks as the New York Giants went 14-2 on their way to winning the NFC East, the NFC, and Super Bowl XXI.

Patrick Surtain’s path to the MVP award would look a little different, mainly because he is not sacking anyone. For Surtain to have any chance in the conversation, he would likely need to come close to setting a single-season record for interceptions (15) and pick-sixes (6) and probably also need to contribute on special teams with some kick or punt return touchdowns.

Even then, the Broncos’ path to a double-digit win season is slim, and it is hard to imagine a defensive player on a 9-8 win team taking home the MVP. It could happen, but it isn’t necessarily likely.

If the Broncos do surprise and make the playoffs with Surtain posting huge numbers, it is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t be betting on it.

– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (+850)

After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year last season and receiving mention as a potential MVP candidate, it is no surprise to see C.J. Stroud among the favorites for the MVP award heading into the 2024 season. A lot changed for the Houston Texans last year, but Stroud was the on-field face of the changes in the offense.

When you compare the 2023 offense to the 2022 offense, the contrast is stark. An increase of 4.8 points per game alongside a nearly 60-yard increase in yards per game are fantastic numbers. However, the beauty is that there is more room to grow, leaving Stroud an opportunity to put together an even better second act.

Last year, the Texans ranked 12th in yards per game (342.4) and 15th in offensive points per game (20.9). When you look at the underlying stats, they were 16th in red-zone efficiency (54.7%), 14th in goal-line efficiency (72.4%), and 19th in third-down conversion percentage (37.9%). Improving those to be among the top-10 numbers in the league could make the Texans one of the most potent offenses in the league and deliver Stroud an MVP award.

– Rolfe

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (+3000)

For many of these teams, the player most likely to win the MVP award doesn’t actually have any realistic chance. I actually think Anthony Richardson at +3000 is the single best longshot pick to win the award.

It seems impossible right now. What has Richardson done? He played all of four games as a rookie, two of which he left early. But Richardson is the perfect candidate to have a surprise 2018 Lamar Jackson-like season.

His combination of rushing and passing is best compared to Cam Newton, who won MVP in 2015. Richardson is like a souped-up Newton who, in theory, should be a better passer.

What if Richardson throws for 30 touchdowns while running for another 10? The Colts win 12+ games and the division. It’s not that improbable. At +3000, I want to take a shot on Richardson.

– Katz

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (+3000)

Trevor Lawrence enters 2024 with the security of a new contract, but with a lot still to prove. He was somewhat given a pass for the debacle of the Urban Meyer-led season as a rookie, and in some ways, you could look at it that his pro career is really only two years old. People often talk about QBs taking that leap in their third season, and Lawrence is arguably entering that season now.

The step up from 2021 to 2022 was impressive, and Lawrence finished seventh in the MVP voting, thanks in large part to the Jacksonville Jaguars finishing strong to snatch the AFC South title.

Narratives are often a big part of the MVP award, and that is shown in last year’s case. The Jaguars finished with the same 9-8 record as in 2022 but went 1-6 down the stretch as opposed to 6-1 the previous season.

If Lawrence can take that next step in his development by crossing the 30 touchdown mark, while cutting down on the mistakes, he will undoubtedly be in the MVP conversation. It is pretty well accepted that the fortunes of a team are tied to their QB, and we can see that in last year’s numbers.

In games the Jaguars won, Lawrence’s stats were a 70.5% completion rate, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and a 2.8 touchdown to interception ratio with just four 0.5 interceptions per game. In contrast, in losses, his stats were a 63% completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a 1.1 touchdown to interception ratio with 1.25 interceptions per game.

If Lawrence can tidy up his game in 2024, the Jaguars should finish with double-digit wins, and essentially, as a result, he will be firmly in the discussion for the MVP award.

– Rolfe

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (+475)

As a two-time NFL MVP in the last six seasons, it does not take much extrapolating to see how Patrick Mahomes can win the award for a third time. We can simply compare what he did in 2018 and 2022 to the years he missed out on the award to see what kind of statistical numbers Mahomes has to put up in 2024.

In the two seasons he won the MVP, Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns with 50 and 41, respectively. Those two seasons were not his best in terms of protecting the ball, demonstrating that the positive plays are a bigger element in Mahomes’ candidacy than the negative. In 2018 and 2022, Mahomes also led the league in ESPN’s QBR.

The team outcome is not a major part of Mahomes’ MVP candidacy because the Chiefs finished 14-2 in 2020, and he finished third in the voting.

The bigger element is avoiding poor performances in primetime or spotlight games, as we saw on Christmas Day last year. In a national game, Mahomes seemingly melted down at home and largely dropped out of the MVP conversation in that moment.

The path to Mahomes’s MVP award win is easy, but the value at +475 leaves little room for error. If you want to back Mahomes, you are better off waiting until he has a rough game and looking for longer odds. It is not a guarantee that he will have a bad game, but I believe we will see odds longer than +500 at some point this year.

– Rolfe

Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams (+40000)

When the quarterback position lacks star power, it opens an opportunity for other positions to shine as the best player on the team from an MVP candidacy perspective. In Las Vegas, that candidate is Davante Adams, but the path to Adams winning MVP is not an easy one to figure out.

Entering the 2022 season, Adams was set to benefit personally from being out of Aaron Rodgers’s shadow. In 2020, Adams scored 18 touchdowns, but not only did he not get a single MVP vote, he did not even get a single Offensive Player of the Year vote.

However, in his first year in Las Vegas in 2022, Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns but still was not considered for the MVP or OPOY award. It is not like the Las Vegas Raiders were ignored, with Josh Jacobs finishing fifth in OPOY voting, it was just Adams did not get the votes.

Therefore, Adams has to be looking at needing to post close to 2,000 receiving yards or 20+ receiving touchdowns to receive serious MVP consideration. A relative lack of competition at the WR position will help, but with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell throwing him the ball, posting those gaudy numbers is a tough ask for a 31-year-old receiver.

– Rolfe

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert (+2200)

Selecting Justin Herbert here was not actually as clear-cut as it could have been. While Herbert is undoubtedly a star, the combination of a preseason injury and the change of coaching staff could hurt his chances.

Jim Harbaugh’s last spell in the NFL saw him lean heavily on a power run game, which could take away from the big number Herbert would need to post to win MVP.

While Herbert can move around and make plays with his legs, he is not known as a mobile quarterback. Therefore, it is not like he can make his MVP case by being a dual-threat quarterback.

If the offensive style of Harbaugh and Greg Roman take the ball out of Herbert’s hands more than previously, he may lack the opportunity to stake an MVP claim.

The problem is that there is no other obvious candidate on the roster to step into the breach. Gus Edwards is not a Christian McCaffrey-style player, and J.K. Dobbins may be limited as he returns from injury. Similarly, at WR, there is no Tyreek Hill-style player who could dominate the headlines and put themselves in the frame.

That leaves Herbert as the top option. But at his current odds, he is a player I am avoiding when considering betting on the MVP award.

– Rolfe

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (+2500)

Tyreek Hill is the two-time defending team MVP.

But the only Dolphins player with a realistic chance of winning it at the league level is Miami’s new $212 million man: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who at +2500 has the NFL’s 13th-shortest odds to take home the hardware.

Those odds certainly reflect some doubt about Tagovailoa’s ability to stay healthy (he’s only played a full season once in his career) and his ability to beat the NFL’s best (he went 1-6 against playoff teams in 2023).

But those odds also are dragged down by betting ambivalence about the Dolphins’ chances as a team.

They’re +2200 to win the Super Bowl and just 10-to-1 to capture the AFC’s 1 seed. If the Dolphins can meaningfully surpass their 9.5 wins total line, Tagovailoa has a real chance to become the first Miami player to win MVP in four decades

– Adam Beasley, Miami Dolphins Beat Writer

New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson (+50000)

A defensive player hasn’t won MVP since 1986, and a receiver has never won the award. The Patriots don’t have anyone who could buck those trends, especially with Christian Barmore potentially facing a lost season due to blood clots.

As for quarterback, Drake Maye could be a decent pick, but he would likely need to play a full season to have a shot. Through a week of Patriots training camp, he looks more likely to redshirt the season than compete for any award.

So, the pick here is Rhamondre Stevenson, arguably the best offensive player on the team. He racked up 1,461 all-purpose yards in six total TDs in 2022 before injuries limited his production in 2023. If he can stay healthy, he has the ability to put up a monster campaign for an offense that will heavily rely on the running game.

– Dakota Randall, New England Patriots Beat Writer

New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers (+1600)

Like the Falcons, albeit in a much more high-profile situation, votes for the Jets are likely to follow the “what has changed” narrative.

Garrett Wilson might well take a massive step forward, and Breece Hall’s duality might actually be the most valuable component of this offense. But should this team develop into a Super Bowl contender in Aaron Rodgers’ first true season at the helm, he’ll be the one given the credit.

I’m not sure this team is structured to allow Rodgers to put up the needed numbers to earn his fifth MVP, but the wins could pile up, and that puts him in the mix to tie Peyton Manning’s record for times honored with this award.

– Soppe

Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields (+12000)

The Pittsburgh Steelers do not have an obvious MVP candidate anywhere on their roster. However, you could argue for four players: Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, T.J. Watt, and George Pickens. We know what Watt brings to the table, but we also know that a 22.5-sack season in 2021 could not even get a look in when it comes to MVP voting.

Pickens is likely the only skill-position player with a shot because of the committee situation at RB, but he would need to post massive numbers while playing with two different QBs for him to get the credit. If he posts monster numbers with either Wilson or Fields under center for the entire season, they will get the credit.

That brings us to the QBs, and of the two, Fields is the player with the profile to win MVP. It would require him to start at least 14 games, which is not a given, but if he does, his dual-threat ability makes it possible. Essentially, you would be looking at a Lamar Jackson-style stat line for Fields, where he puts together a solid passing profile supplemented with strong rushing numbers.

The case for Fields is essentially the one I made for Jones a little bit above. Pass for 3,500+ passing yards with somewhere close to 30 passing touchdowns, minimize the mistakes, and rush for 8-10 touchdowns and 800-1,000 rushing yards. That still might not be enough, but it would get him in the discussion.

– Rolfe

Tennessee Titans: Will Levis (+15000)

Trying to pinpoint a Tennessee Titans player who could be an MVP candidate was extremely tough. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins will likely take too much from each other for consideration, and the same could be said for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The defense lacks a star with 20+ sacks, and while you could theoretically make a case for L’Jarius Sneed, it would be highly unlikely.

That takes us to Will Levis, who the Titans selected 33rd overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. After a rough year in 2023, Levis is an extreme long shot to win MVP because it is not even a guarantee he will be the Titans’ starter all season.

Even looking back on Levis’ college career does not give much insight into how he could win an MVP award. He had just 33 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in his two years at Kentucky. Additionally, he did not provide much-added value with his legs, which is what that passing profile would need.

– Rolfe