There’s high anticipation associated with the AFC South as the 2024 NFL season approaches. The deferred start of what could be a decade-plus rivalry — one between dynamic young quarterbacks and potential NFL MVP candidates C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson — should finally begin in earnest, but there’s other interesting storylines in the division as well beyond the field generals of the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Trevor Lawrence will be looking to begin immediately paying dividends on the lucrative contract extension he signed this offseason, while the Tennessee Titans will trot out a revamped offense in the first year of the post-Derrick Henry era and determine if Will Levis is their franchise quarterback.
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the AFC South.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each AFC South Team
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (+850)
After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year last season and receiving mention as a potential MVP candidate, it is no surprise to see C.J. Stroud among the favorites for the MVP award heading into the 2024 season. A lot changed for the Houston Texans last year, but Stroud was the on-field face of the changes in the offense.
When you compare the 2023 offense to the 2022 offense, the contrast is stark. An increase of 4.8 points per game alongside a nearly 60-yard increase in yards per game are fantastic numbers. However, the beauty is that there is more room to grow, leaving Stroud an opportunity to put together an even better second act.
Last year, the Texans ranked 12th in yards per game (342.4) and 15th in offensive points per game (20.9). When you look at the underlying stats, they were 16th in red-zone efficiency (54.7%), 14th in goal-line efficiency (72.4%), and 19th in third-down conversion percentage (37.9%). Improving those to be among the top-10 numbers in the league could make the Texans one of the most potent offenses in the league and deliver Stroud an MVP award.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (+3000)
For many of these teams, the player most likely to win the MVP award doesn’t actually have any realistic chance. I actually think Anthony Richardson at +3000 is the single best longshot pick to win the award.
It seems impossible right now. What has Richardson done? He played all of four games as a rookie, two of which he left early. But Richardson is the perfect candidate to have a surprise 2018 Lamar Jackson-like season.
His combination of rushing and passing is best compared to Cam Newton, who won MVP in 2015. Richardson is like a souped-up Newton who, in theory, should be a better passer.
What if Richardson throws for 30 touchdowns while running for another 10? The Colts win 12+ games and the division. It’s not that improbable. At +3000, I want to take a shot on Richardson.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (+3000)
Trevor Lawrence enters 2024 with the security of a new contract, but with a lot still to prove. He was somewhat given a pass for the debacle of the Urban Meyer-led season as a rookie, and in some ways, you could look at it that his pro career is really only two years old. People often talk about QBs taking that leap in their third season, and Lawrence is arguably entering that season now.
The step up from 2021 to 2022 was impressive, and Lawrence finished seventh in the MVP voting, thanks in large part to the Jacksonville Jaguars finishing strong to snatch the AFC South title.
Narratives are often a big part of the MVP award, and that is shown in last year’s case. The Jaguars finished with the same 9-8 record as in 2022 but went 1-6 down the stretch as opposed to 6-1 the previous season.
If Lawrence can take that next step in his development by crossing the 30 touchdown mark, while cutting down on the mistakes, he will undoubtedly be in the MVP conversation. It is pretty well accepted that the fortunes of a team are tied to their QB, and we can see that in last year’s numbers.
In games the Jaguars won, Lawrence’s stats were a 70.5% completion rate, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and a 2.8 touchdown to interception ratio with just four 0.5 interceptions per game. In contrast, in losses, his stats were a 63% completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a 1.1 touchdown to interception ratio with 1.25 interceptions per game.
If Lawrence can tidy up his game in 2024, the Jaguars should finish with double-digit wins, and essentially, as a result, he will be firmly in the discussion for the MVP award.
– Rolfe
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis (+15000)
Trying to pinpoint a Tennessee Titans player who could be an MVP candidate was extremely tough. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins will likely take too much from each other for consideration, and the same could be said for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The defense lacks a star with 20+ sacks, and while you could theoretically make a case for L’Jarius Sneed, it would be highly unlikely.
That takes us to Will Levis, who the Titans selected 33rd overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. After a rough year in 2023, Levis is an extreme long shot to win MVP because it is not even a guarantee he will be the Titans’ starter all season.
Even looking back on Levis’ college career does not give much insight into how he could win an MVP award. He had just 33 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in his two years at Kentucky. Additionally, he did not provide much-added value with his legs, which is what that passing profile would need.
– Rolfe
Join Theo Ash: Your Football Opinion
Listen to the Your Football Opinion with Theo Ash! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find this podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Find us on the Pro Football Network YouTube Channel!