The NFL head coach firing cycle is already underway. The New York Jets parted ways with Robert Saleh after Week 5, while the New Orleans Saints canned Dennis Allen following Week 9.
Saleh and Allen will not be the only NFL head coaches to lose their jobs this year or on Black Monday, the infamous day after the regular season when decision-makers are fired around the league.
Which other HCs should be worried about their gigs?
2024 NFL Head Coach Hot Seat Rankings
6) Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (2-7)
On paper, Kevin Stefanski is hardly a candidate to be fired in 2025. He guided the Cleveland Browns to two playoff appearances in his first four seasons, winning the NFL’s Coach of the Year award in both campaigns. Stefanski and Browns GM Andrew Berry just signed extensions with the club in June.
And yet, Stefanski’s accomplishments are threatened to be overshadowed by Cleveland’s disastrous 2022 trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the league’s worst signal-caller before tearing his Achilles last month. Meanwhile, the rest of the Browns’ roster seemingly devolved overnight, leaving a team that’s won just two games through 10 weeks.
Will Stefanski be allowed to identify, draft, and develop Cleveland’s next quarterback in 2025? Or will the Browns start fresh in the front office and along the sidelines?
5) Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
One-and-done head coaches are no longer a rarity in the NFL. Since 2011, 12 NFL HCs have been fired either during their first season or shortly thereafter. One first-year head coach has been let go in-season in each of the past three campaigns:
- Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021)
- Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos (2022)
- Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers (2023)
Among 2024’s rookie head coaches, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Antonio Pierce is the best candidate for an in-season or Black Monday firing. The Raiders’ 2-7 record is disappointing, but that’s not the only reason Pierce might be on the hot seat.
Mark Davis has hired five head coaches in the 10+ years he's been at the helm: Dennis Allen (fired), Jack Del Rio (college advisor), Jon Gruden (nicey videos), Josh McDaniels (lol), and Antonio Pierce (??).
I can't wait to see who he hires next/after Deion Sanders.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) November 4, 2024
Pierce might’ve pushed WR Davante Adams out of Las Vegas after he — inadvertently or otherwise — liked an Instagram post that suggested the veteran wideout had played his last snap for the Raiders. In September, he was forced to apologize after seemingly questioning the effort of some Vegas players, noting they’d made “business decisions” in games.
Meanwhile, Pierce’s in-game decision-making ranks among the worst in the NFL. Only the Patriots have lost more win probability than the Raiders by failing to go for fourth-down conversions.
In Week 1, Pierce made one of the blunders of the year by calling for a punt on a 4th-and-1 from the Chargers’ 43-yard line while trailing by six points. Pierce’s decision was a 100th percentile cowardly decision per the Surrender Index, while Ben Baldwin’s model indicated the 4th-and-1 punt cost the Raiders 8.5 points of win probability. Any decision with a +2% WP is generally considered a must-go situation.
4) Brian Daboll, New York Giants (2-8)
If you believe New York Giants owner John Mara, head coach Brian Daboll was not on the hot seat as of late October.
“Obviously, we’re all very disappointed with where we are right now,” Mara said after Week 7. “But I’m gonna say one thing: we are not making any changes this season. And I do not anticipate making any changes in the offseason, either.”
Big Blue was 2-5 then. At the time, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that executives around the league weren’t “buying” Mara’s endorsement of Daboll, noting that Mara has always been a fan of coaching free agent Bill Belichick.
The Giants are 2-8 now and are coming off a loss to the Panthers, who many observers considered the NFL’s worst team. Daniel Jones threw two picks against Carolina and will likely be benched coming out of New York’s Week 11 bye.
Jones will be a goner in 2025. Will Mara let Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen pick the Giants’ next quarterback? Will Schoen stay around while Daboll is fired?
3) Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (4-5)
The Chicago Bears were expected to flirt with playoff contention in Caleb Williams’ rookie campaign, and they’re 4-5 entering Week 11. So, what’s the problem for head coach Matt Eberflus?
Well, the vibes in Chicago are off-the-charts bad. Williams looks like the NFL’s worst first-year quarterback through 10 weeks and is facing calls to be benched. The Bears’ players seemingly staged a mini-revolt against OC Shane Waldron, who was fired and replaced by passing game coordinator Thomas Brown entering Week 10.
From @GMFB: The spotlight shines on Caleb Williams and coach Matt Eberflus after the firing of #Bears OC Shane Waldron yesterday… plus #Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has his surgery today. pic.twitter.com/s9xU9nvFYq
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 13, 2024
No one would have batted an eye had Chicago started fresh and parted ways with Eberflus after the 2024 campaign. Hanging onto Eberflus, hiring and then firing Waldron, and forcing Williams to slog through this type of rookie experience feels like a massive waste of time at best and the downfall of an all-time QB prospect at worst.
We’re not expecting Eberflus to be fired during the season. The Bears have never canned a head coach during a season, while Chicago doesn’t have an obvious in-house interim candidate.
Still, things are probably going to get worse for the Bears. Chicago will face the NFL’s most difficult schedule to close the 2024 season, including all six of their challenging NFC North matchups.
2) Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
Like Eberflus, Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy will probably survive for the rest of the year. While Dallas could theoretically promote special teams coach John Fassel into its interim role (he held the same title for the Rams after they fired Jeff Fisher in 2016), owner Jerry Jones has hinted that McCarthy won’t be let go during the season.
However, McCarthy will almost surely be fired in 2025, opening up one of the NFL‘s most prestigious head-coaching jobs.
McCarthy entered the 2024 campaign as a lame-duck coach after Jones refused to extend his contract. With quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) out for the season, Dallas is 3-6 and going nowhere fast.
Pro Football Network recently highlighted the 10 best candidates to replace McCarthy in 2025, from Belichick to former Cowboys CB and current Colorado head coach Deion Sanders.
1) Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Doug Pederson could be coaching for his job in Week 11.
Veteran NFL insider Josina Anderson reported on Friday that while Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan prefers to make a decision on Pederson after the 2024 season, the club could make changes if it gets blown out by the Lions on Sunday.
The Jaguars are 14-point road underdogs to Detroit this week, the league’s largest spread of the year. Mac Jones is starting in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence. It’s safe to say a Week 11 blowout is squarely on the table.
Pederson clearly knows his Jacksonville tenure is nearing its end, and his frustration has begun to blow over. Last week, he responded to a seemingly innocuous question about a Jones interception by telling reporters they wouldn’t “figure out” the play.
"I'm not gonna go through the details of the play 'cause you guys wouldn't figure it out."
Doug Pederson's response to a question about what was supposed to happen on a Mac Jones interception.pic.twitter.com/pCC7ty8Ajx
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 10, 2024
Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is on Jacksonville’s staff as the quarterbacks coach. He’d make sense as an interim option if Khan fires Pederson before the regular season concludes.
The Jaguars’ head-coaching job should be a relatively compelling position during the 2025 offseason, even if Lawrence will be viewed as something of a reclamation project. Can Khan lure coveted Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Jacksonville next year?