Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today for Sunday’s Games: Picks Include Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Others

We have two playoff games left for Divisional Round weekend, and our experts share their top NFL player prop bets for Sunday's action.

Today’s NFL playoff games feature four offenses filled with premier talent who are capable of scoring a bunch of points. With notable offensive players across the board in action today, which player prop bets should you be targeting? Our NFL betting experts give out their favorite NFL player prop bets for Sunday’s Divisional Round games.

Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Today’s Playoff Games

Rachaad White Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110 at BetMGM)

Katz: Rachaad White has gone over 15.5 rush attempts in 10 games this season, including last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. So, why are we on his under? Let’s look at what those 10 games have in common. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won nine of them.

In losses, White went over this number just once. That outlier game was Week 9 against the Houston Texans where the Bucs were leading for the first three quarters.

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The Bucs are 6.5-point underdogs on the road against the Detroit Lions this week. Additionally, the Lions are a pass-funnel defense. They allow the second-most passing yards per game but the fewest rushing yards per game. The Bucs are not going to run White into a wall over and over again.

This season, the Bucs registered a 58% neutral game script pass rate. They throw when the game is competitive and run to salt it away. Unless the Bucs surprise us all and take a lead into the second half against the Lions, I expect White to finish in the range of 10-12 carries.

Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Besides a garbage-time touchdown late in the game, Chris Godwin was pretty much a non-factor against the Eagles last week. There’s no way he can make it two weeks in a row against two of the worst pass defenses, right?

After the Washington Commanders, the Eagles and Lions each gave up the most yards to wide receivers during the regular season.

Unlike last week, however, I’m expecting the Buccaneers to be in a negative game script as 6.5-point underdogs against the Lions, which means he should get more than the five targets he had against the Eagles.

The last time these two teams played each other in Week 6, Godwin had six receptions for 77 yards. Although the offense only put up six points, they threw the ball on 75% of their plays with an average depth of target of 12 yards per attempt. If history repeats itself, that should set up as a smash spot for Godwin.

Sam LaPorta Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Katz: Sam LaPorta suffered a scary-looking knee injury in the Lions’ Week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Fortunately, he escaped with just a hyperextended knee and a bone bruise. He probably would’ve missed last week’s game had it been a random regular-season game, but in the playoffs, he played through the injury.

LaPorta definitely wasn’t 100%, but he still played 80% of the snaps. Most importantly, he made it through the game without a setback.

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Heading into the Divisional Round, LaPorta was already practicing fully on a Wednesday. I’m expecting him to be much more involved this week than he was last week when he caught just three passes for 14 yards.

LaPorta saw 11 targets when these teams played back in Week 6. He only caught four passes but still reached 36 yards, more than his line for this week.

The Bucs allowed 63 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, just one yard per game behind the Denver Broncos for the most in the league. The way to beat the Bucs is through the air. Jared Goff should be airing it out plenty, and when the ball isn’t going in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s direction, it is probably going to LaPorta. I think we win this in the first half.

Jahmyr Gibbs Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Soppe: The Buccaneers have gone 15 straight games without allowing a rush to gain more than 20 yards, the longest such streak since the Chicago Bears ripped off 16 straight, bridging the 2000 and 2001 seasons, Brian Urlacher’s introduction to the NFL.

Both Goff and Baker Mayfield are playing at an elite level, but these run defenses have been as consistent as anything, which leads to an early prop angle if you’re so inclined. Jahmyr Gibbs is in the 2024 fantasy football first-round discussion, but with a healthy David Montgomery, the rookie averages just 12.4 carries per game when the Lions are favored.

If we are to assume that the splash run is going to be difficult to come by, Gibbs is in a tough spot to make the most of limited volume — under 46.5 rushing yards in seven of eight games this season when failing to notch a run of 20+ yards.

Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (-105 at DraftKings), Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: During the regular season, Rashee Rice ranked second among receivers in yards after the catch per reception, and the Bills encourage their opponents to check down (second lowest aDOT).

When on the perimeter, Rice has caught a pass on 24.1% of his routes, a rate that dwarfs that of Travis Kelce (15.3%). Kansas City’s budding star earned 35.2% of the targets last week against the Miami Dolphins and might well prove to be the skeleton key for a Kansas City Chiefs team eyeing a repeat.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110 at DraftKings)

Bearman: Win or lose, Josh Allen throws picks. In 12 of his last 14 games, he has thrown at least one interception, which is absurd. I’m banking on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to be able to force Allen into at least one poor decision.

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Katz: We hit on this bet last week. We’re going back to the well once more.

I understand why sportsbooks need to keep setting Stefon Diggs’ longest reception line at 20+ yards. It corresponds with Josh Allen’s passing yardage total and Diggs’ receiving yards total. The same process I used last week applies this week. For those of you who may not have read last week’s blurb, or perhaps have forgotten, here it is again:

“On the season, Diggs has just 10 catches of 20+ yards. But here’s the kicker. Not one of them occurred in December (or January). In a game with a low projected point total in bad weather, this isn’t the spot where Diggs is suddenly going to break free for a deep one. If he takes a screen or breaks a tackle on a curl, so be it. That’s the only way I see us losing this.”

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This week’s game doesn’t have a low point total or bad weather, but as it turned out, neither did last week’s. The game ended up being quite high-scoring and, while it was cold, the weather was not an issue.

When these teams met in Week 14, Diggs commanded a whopping 11 targets. He caught four passes for 24 yards. I am once again expecting a bunch of underneath stuff for Diggs, meaning even if he sees high target volume, he won’t catch a pass longer than 20 yards.

Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (+110 at DraftKings), Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: In a game that features Allen and Patrick Mahomes, any player is capable of having a big day; that much we know. These are two creative offenses that pick on opposing weaknesses — it just so happens that these two defenses share a common flaw.

On passes thrown outside the hashes by opponents this season …

  • Chiefs: Fifth-highest opponent aDOT (average depth of target)
  • Chiefs: 32nd in INT% (one interception on 244 throws)
  • Bills: 27th in first-down rate
  • Bills: 29th in completion percentage

They are both good defenses with a similar blind spot that the All-Pro QB on the other side can exploit in a major way. With the knowledge of where to look, the only thing left to do is find the players that are used in those advantageous areas.

Dalton Kincaid ranks second among TEs in both catches (42) and catch rate (82.4%) on those perimeter passes. For the season, he and Diggs have seen 47.1% of Buffalo’s such targets and accounted for 47.3% of their catches on those passes.

If you believe that L’Jarius Sneed is focused on Diggs and/or are worried about Diggs’ recent usage, Kincaid (third among TEs in perimeter routes, 15th in routes run elsewhere) is the man for you.

KEEP READING: Bucs vs. Lions Player Prop Bets Include Chris Godwin and More

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