NFL DFS values for DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Quez Watkins, and Jalen Reagor for Wild Card Weekend

How do the DFS values of DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Quez Watkins, and Jalen Reagor stack up for the NFL's Wild Card Weekend?

With all eyes on the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, fantasy football managers who played in season-long leagues transition into DFS in an attempt to take down another tournament. Each and every pick is vital, and determining the correct player from individual teams will be essential. As we look at individual games, how do the DFS values of DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Quez Watkins, and Jalen Reagor stack up against the rest of the field as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

DeVonta Smith’s Wild Card Weekend DFS value

There is no denying Smith’s talent or standing on this offense. He is Jalen Hurts’ top target at receiver and put together a solid rookie campaign. Hauling in 64 of his 104 targets, Smith recorded 916 yards (29th in the NFL) and 5 touchdowns.

Over the Eagles’ first seven games, Smith averaged 7.6 targets and recorded 8 or more in four out of seven games. Philly was passing quite a bit. They were 14th in the NFL with a 61% passing rate, coming in ahead of the league average of 59%. Yet since Week 8, the offense made a massive change in philosophy and became the run-heaviest team in the NFL. In that span, the Eagles threw on just 39% of their offensive plays, 18 percentage points lower than the NFL average of 57%.

Philly’s new offense limiting Smith

Philadelphia’s altered offensive game plan has come at the detriment of Smith. Over this period, he has seen 7 or more targets just once (Week 16 vs. NYG). He has scored 1 touchdown since Week 10 and watched his per-game averages drop to 3.2 catches on 5.1 targets for 51 yards.

He is No. 2 on the team in target share (22.2%) and No. 1 in air yards (37.1%). But given the lack of volume, Smith doesn’t have the same upside as the rest of the available DFS wide receivers this weekend.

Still, if the Eagles want to knock off the Buccaneers, they have to attack through the air. Tampa Bay is a pass-funnel defense — opposing teams are throwing on 67% of their offensive plays in neutral game scripts. This implies that Smith should approach his early-season volume.

He doesn’t have a great matchup, as Jamel Dean and Calton Davis have been solid on the perimeter, but Smith has the most upside of the Eagles’ WRs. Add in the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings, and Smith has a chance at returning decent value on his $5,500 price, albeit with a limited ceiling.

Dallas Goedert is one of the top values for DFS in the Wild Card round

If you have seen my other content this week, this should come as no surprise. I am high on Goedert this week, especially at his $4,500 price tag on DraftKings. He is my No. 1 TE pivot if you don’t want to pay up for Travis Kelce ($6,700), Rob Gronkowski ($6,400), or George Kittle ($6,000).

Whereas Smith has taken a downward turn in production, Goedert has done the opposite. A large portion of this is due to the midseason trade of Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. Since the trade (Week 7), Goedert is No. 1 on the Eagles with 25.6% of the targets and 24.5% of the air yards. He is second only to Mark Andrews in target share and is one of just eight TEs to have 24% or more of his team’s air yards. He is also fourth in average depth of target (aDOT) at 9.18.

Over his last three outings, Goedert has scored 13 or more fantasy points in three games while recording 20+ in two. He has been the No. 6 TE in fantasy since Week 7, averaging 11.6 PPR points along the way.

The Buccaneers are likely getting back LB Lavonte David (game-time decision), which slightly concerns me given his coverage ability. However, I am still in on Goedert this week for DFS. You will be hard-pressed to find a better value, especially since he’s only the eighth-highest-priced TE on the six-game slate.

Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor are shaky DFS plays on Wild Card Weekend

As I touched on with Smith, volume has been an issue for Philly’s wideouts. With that said, Watkins at least comes in with a bit of momentum. In Week 18 against the Cowboys, Watkins caught 5 of 7 targets for 84 yards. He took a short pass from Gardner Minshew for a 36-yard score with less than two minutes left in their blowout loss. It was his first touchdown of the year, and he finished the regular season with 43 receptions (62 targets) and 647 yards.

In one of the more interesting stats of the season, Watkins had a 91-yard reception back in Week 2. Incredibly, that didn’t end in a score, as he was tackled just short on the 6-yard line. Of the Eagles’ receivers, Watkins has the best matchup for DFS. He will play in the slot against Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. I would not be rushing to slide Watkins in DFS lineups, but at $3,900, he is an intriguing budget play in GPPs.

As for Reagor ($3,100), I am staying away. He has been one of the biggest disappointments since the Eagles drafted him last season. His career will always be compared to Justin Jefferson, who went one spot behind him. We all know how that has turned out.

Reagor has just two games this season with 7 or more targets but has yet to record 60 yards receiving. He has averaged just 17.6 yards and 1.9 receptions in his 17 games. He has more touches (43) and yards (482) as a returner than he does as a receiver (33 and 299). Even at $100 over the minimum, I would avoid Reagor in DFS.

Tommy Garrett is a Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here and give him a follow on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.