If you’re looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Packers Considerations
Green Bay is a tough team to figure out. In recent years, they’ve been fairly predictable in DFS lineup constructions. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams were must-starts if we could make the budget numbers work. AJ Dillon was a nice bargain if the price setters didn’t over-inflate him.
But times have changed. Rodgers is no longer reliable. We’re barely halfway through the season, and he’s already had three hyped No. 1 receivers: Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, and Christian Watson.
We could take a shot on cheaper guys like a returning Randall Cobb, perhaps Robert Tonyan, or even the underperforming Mason Crosby. Yet, that would constitute “playing it safe,” and not in a good way.
With Doubs sidelined, we either need to guess whether Lazard or Watson will break through, or choose both, and hope Rodgers brings his A game against a C- pass defense.
The running game also brings more questions than answers. Heading into Week 6, imagine if I’d told you that Aaron Jones would rack up 135+ rushing yards in two of the next five games, but no more than 25 yards in three other games. Honestly, how often does that happen?
There are reasons, of course. Jones got hurt in one contest, muting his output. Yet, it reflects a larger issue, which is that Jones has hit 110+ yards four times, 63 yards once, and less than 50 yards every other game. His touchdowns per game have dropped each season since 2019.
However, Jones is averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per carry. However (again), the opposing Titans have an elite run defense that’s yielded only 4.0 yards per carry (third best in the league) and an NFL-low two rushing TDs.
If we pay big for Jones, we’d lose financial flexibility elsewhere. We’d need him to dominate, knowing his chances might be only 50/50 at best.
Titans Considerations
Let’s keep this simple. The Commanders beat the Eagles on Monday night because they ran the ball 49 times. Objectively, they ran terrible, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. But it worked because of timely situational passing by Taylor Heinicke and catching — primarily by Terry McLaurin.
Derrick Henry has long been a key driver of Tennessee’s offense. This year, he’s taken it to an entirely new level and is on pace to lead the league in rushing attempts for the third time in four years. Henry’s also on a near-record pace for receptions, though obviously, that’s secondary.
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Rookie Treylon Burks’ return gives Ryan Tannehill an extra weapon. That said, this game isn’t about Burks or Robert Woods or even Week 10 hero Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. This game is about whether Henry can carry Tennessee on his back against a porous run defense surrendering 4.8 yards per carry.
Henry had a whopping 25+ touches in each game of the Titans’ five-game-winning streak from Weeks 3 to 8. The team has scaled him back a bit since then. I believe they’re poised to overload Henry once again — perhaps to the detriment of his long-term durability. But short term, he appears to be the safest Tennessee DFS option, even at his steep price.
Top NFL DFS Picks for TNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($15,600)
We need to take some chances. While Rodgers hasn’t been his usual elite or near-elite self, he has strong 20+ point potential (i.e. 30+ points as Captain) with most of his key receivers healthy and facing a defense that gave up 350+ passing yards each to Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
Flex: RB Derrick Henry, Titans ($11,600)
Of course. We might even see 4+ receptions for just the fourth time in his career. After two games of more modest (for him) usage, this is the matchup they’ve been saving him for.
Flex: WR Allen Lazard, Packers ($8,600)
I’m eyeing a big night for Lazard and/or Watson. Lazard is pricier, and also risky to bench, because a lot of DFS competitors will start him, and because his floor and ceiling are terrific.
Flex: WR Christian Watson, Packers ($7,400)
This move reinforces why I have Rodgers in the Captain slot. Watson is one big play away from being worth his DFS cost.
Flex: RB AJ Dillon, Packers ($6,600)
Surprised? Me too. We have $6,800 remaining for the last two DFS spots. Based on Aaron Jones’s usage on Sunday (26 touches), my research shows he’s a significant regression risk for Thursday. I’m banking on Dillon getting most of the second-half work with Green Bay ahead, chewing up yards and exceeding 10 DFS points.
Flex: WR Randall Cobb, Packers ($200)
This lineup assumes Randall Cobb will return tonight, which seems likely as I write this. If circumstances change, then we’ll simply shift and swap out Cobb and Dillon for Sammy Watkins ($4,800) and the boom-bust Josiah Deguara ($1,800). But I believe Cobb will be a go in a must-win game that could catapult the Packers into serious playoff contention.