If you’re looking for Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders Thursday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 14, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
The Rams might end up having the worst record of any defending Super Bowl champion. And sadly, it’s only partially due to injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp (and sure, Allen Robinson II). More to the point, the writing was on the wall when they were blown out at home in Week 1.
The recent signing of Baker Mayfield adds to the sense of desperation. Perhaps the former No. 1 overall draft pick can earn a backup role for 2023. But this team is playing out the season, likely with the knowledge that things won’t get much easier next year when their key playmakers are another year older.
For now, Cam Akers clearly has DFS appeal after his two-TD outburst on Sunday. But he’s caught only one pass since Week 3, and the Raiders are yielding only 4.2 yards per carry — good for 11th best in the league. We have no idea if Akers will continue carrying the load or if cheap rookie Kyren Williams might get a little more run.
Through the air, I remain all-in on 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell, who’s playing for a top-three receiver role in 2023. The Raiders don’t do a great job pressuring quarterbacks and are surrendering the fourth-most receiving yards. Opposing QBs enjoy an NFL-high 70.3% completion rate.
Assuming Vegas’ offense continues to shine — or at least “do pretty well” — the Rams will need to air it out. And perhaps no Ram has more big-play ability than Atwell.
If Las Vegas squeaks into the playoffs, Davante Adams would deserve MVP votes. He’s on a realistic trajectory for the greatest WR season in history: a 1,666-17 receiving line. Sure, that might look a little weak compared to Cooper Kupp’s blistering 1,947-16 line last season.
But Kupp did his damage on 8.5 catches per game. Adams is averaging only 6.6 catches, or about 22% less volume.
With 30+ DFS points in four of his last five outings, Adams might be on the hottest five-game streak in WR history. Given the lack of reliable talent for the Rams, there are no strong arguments for keeping him off our slate.
The biggest question for me is whether the injured Josh Jacobs will start, and if so, whether he’ll be a trap play. I’d estimate at least 60% of DFS competitors will include him in their lineup.
Yet, my research shows RBs with his sizable Sunday volume (28 touches) are major Thursday regression risks. As the second-most expensive DFS option, he’ll need to dominate to be worth the investment.
Top NFL DFS Picks for TNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Davante Adams, Raiders ($19,200)
Rarely does a captain cost this much. It would be hard to justify if Vegas were playing the Bills, given how much salary cap it would burn. After all, we’d need to factor in the possible additions of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and other high-priced producers.
But against the Rams, we can afford to go big. I’m betting at least 90% of competitors will include Adams in their lineup, and perhaps over 35% will place him in the Captain slot. Relatively speaking, those would be high percentages.
Flex: QB Derek Carr, Raiders ($10,200)
I’ll probably have enough space to select Derek Carr or Jacobs ($12,400). This is a tough decision. Many smart people would pick Jacobs. But I’m trusting my historical research and the context of a team dealing with a questionably healthy star.
This is a winnable game. If the Raiders are to make the playoffs, they’ll need to run the table these next three weeks and then conquer the 49ers in Week 17 or the Chiefs in Week 18. They might lean a bit more on Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah (if healthy).
Despite massive upside, Jacobs seems riskier than Carr, who should net 16+ points.
Flex: WR Mack Hollins, Raiders ($7,400)
Investing in Carr means going all in on Mack Hollins, who’s the clear-cut No. 2 receiver in a passing attack that should break through against the Rams’ below-average pass defense.
Flex: QB Bryce Perkins, Rams ($6,000)
Now let’s pivot to LA, beginning with (tentatively) Bryce Perkins. I love Perkins as a dual-threat QB with 18+ point upside against the Raiders … if he starts. If he’s not named the starter, we can easily switch to Van Jefferson ($6,400) without impacting the rest of this lineup.
Flex: WR Tutu Atwell, Rams ($4,400)
I added Atwell in my fantasy league on Wednesday to block my WR-needy opponent who’s in bye-week hell. That’s how much I believe in his potential.
Flex: WR Brandon Powell, Rams ($2,800)
With $2,800 remaining, let’s roll with the middling Brandon Powell, hoping a TD (against one of the league’s most TD-friendly pass defenses) could turn him into a major bargain.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.