The second game of Saturday’s Divisional Round action sees the Green Bay Packers face the San Francisco 49ers in Levi’s Stadium in what could arguably be the best game of the entire weekend. With plenty of scoring potential in this one, could we see big DFS returns from some of the key players?
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer, let’s examine the top NFL DFS picks for the second game of the weekend.
Who are the Top NFL DFS Picks for Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers?
Brock Purdy, QB
We are somewhat spoiled for choice in terms of the QB options for this game. While neither 49ers QB Brock Purdy nor Packers QB Jordan Love brings the same level of excitement as Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson or Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, they finished as the QB5 and QB6 in overall scoring during the regular season.
Purdy averaged 18.5 points per game this season and had a run of six games in seven weeks where he topped 20 points. In the final 10 weeks of the season, Purdy scored 17 points or more on seven occasions.
The Packers are certainly not a pushover opponent, but even with his early struggles, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott managed to top 30 fantasy points against them last week. Purdy isn’t likely to throw the ball 60 times, but in a game that could end up having a shootout feel, taking Purdy either as a Flex or as your captain is an intriguing option.
Jordan Love, QB
Going up against the 49ers’ pass defense is not something fantasy managers usually volunteer for. Then again, the Cowboys were supposed to be a tough opponent as well. Last week, Love got to 22.78 fantasy points in a game the Packers had full control of, and he only had to throw the ball 21 times.
There may not be any QB left in the playoffs who is playing as hot as Love right now. The Packers’ QB finished the season with three straight 20-point performances and then put in another one last week. In the last nine games, he has seven of those 20-fantasy-point performances, which just shows his form is red hot right now.
The way this game is being viewed by the sportsbooks is with the expectations the Packers will be chasing at some point in this game. If I was going to bet on either QB to put up a 30-fantasy-point performance, it would be Love just because of the way the game script could play out here.
AJ Dillon, RB
When a player like RB AJ Dillon is valued this cheaply, you have to at least consider him. If all Dillon does is fall in the end zone once, he is returning exquisite value on the cost you can get him in your lineup for this week. Plus, it allows you to go a bit more expensive across the other five positions than you might have first planned.
The elephant in the room is that Dillon is questionable with thumb and neck injuries, which is far from ideal. If you build your lineup with Dillon, then make sure you have a pivot plan if he is listed among the inactives on Saturday.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
The beauty of getting a player like Dillon in your lineup is that it would allow you to splurge on an option like RB Christian McCaffrey either as your captain or in that Flex spot. McCaffrey averages 25.9 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring and 22.4 in FanDuel scoring. Regardless of platform, he is pretty clearly the No. 1 RB.
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You can count on one hand the number of performances from McCaffrey where he has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in a game this season. He is always a threat to find the end zone and has shown multiple times this season that he could even score two — or more — touchdowns in a single game.
The captain price for McCaffrey is a rich price to pay when someone like Love could have a similar ceiling at a lower price. You always want to try and get CMC in your lineup, but putting him as captain opens you up to a lot of risks while hamstringing your options across the other five positions.
Aaron Jones, RB
It is impossible to ignore Packers RB Aaron Jones because he now has four straight 100-yard games and found the end zone three times last week. The veteran finally appears to be fully healthy, and while this appears to be a tough matchup, there is plenty of reason for optimism.
Across the entire 2023 regular season, the 49ers defense allowed 18.36 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Even if that is the return for Jones, that is enough to almost return double the value of the price point you can get him at this week.
Then you consider the 49ers have allowed 21.63 fantasy points to RBs in the last four weeks, and there is enough ceiling here for me to want Jones in my lineup. Dillon being active could eat into the ceiling if they use the younger back around the goal line, but Jones would likely be the No. 1 option across the rest of the field.
Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, WR
When I started looking at my lineup options here, my plan was always to rule out the more expensive 49ers’ WR. If the pair have been so close in terms of fantasy output this season, then why would you pay for the more expensive one? You likely cannot have both, so really just pick your poison.
I can make the case for both Aiyuk and Samuel getting to around 20 fantasy points this week, but I could not tell you definitely which one. Therefore, if I decide to have one in my lineup, I am just picking the cheaper option of the two and rolling with it.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
When it comes to the WR position for the Packers, my approach is to try and take the best value. Working out which of the four or five young WRs is going to ball out in any given week has been tough. Saying that, Wicks just stands out as a potential value option here.
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He finished the regular season with games that saw him average 16.9 fantasy points in DraftKings, and 14.6 in FanDuel. Last week he made it four touchdowns in three games, finishing with 10.5 points in DraftKings and 9.5 in FanDuel. The value is here if you need a mid-priced option in your lineup
Bo Melton, WR
I said earlier that you needed a potential pivot for Dillon, and Bo Melton may very well be that. In the last three weeks of the season, he averaged 15.7 fantasy points on DraftKings and 12.2 on FanDuel. Last week was a tough one, but as a lineup-balancing option, even if you just get a couple of points out of him, it allows you to go bigger elsewhere.
George Kittle, TE
The pricing of George Kittle compared to the other pass catchers just does not make sense to me this week. When you look back at Kittle’s game logs, between Week 7 and Week 16, he had three 20+ point performances, three more over 10, and just two under 10 points.
There is a very real road map to Kittle returning great value on his salary this week, so he could end up being a lineup staple. The Packers’ defense has allowed 13.08 fantasy points per game to TE in the final four weeks of the regular season and just gave up 93 yards and three touchdowns to Jake Ferguson.
Selecting Kittle as the captain has the potential to be the ultimate differentiation move this week. If you combine that strategy with either Dillon or Melton, then load your other Flex spots with high-priced players, the ceiling is pretty high on that lineup if Kittle and one of the low-priced players deliver as they could.
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