If you’re making Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Panthers Considerations
Since trading away Christian McCaffrey, Carolina somehow looks better. I don’t mean that they are better. But follow me here . . .
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This team averaged 17.2 points per game with McCaffrey serving as the offense centerpiece through the first six weeks. In their three games since — against the Buccaneers at home and in two other road contests — they’ve averaged 25.3 points.
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Sure, that’s a small sample size. I get it. Let’s not overreact. And yet, the vacuum left by McCaffrey’s (and obviously, to a lesser extent, Robbie Anderson’s) departures has been more than adequately filled by D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, DJ Moore, and 2021 second-round draft pick Terrace Marshall Jr.
While Carolina is still last in the league in offensive time of possession, they’ve averaged a little over a minute more per game since the McCaffrey trade. The offense is less predictable. Defenses have to adjust a bit more.
And as DFS competitors, so do we. We have five slots to fill. I believe Carolina will avenge their Week 8 loss to Atlanta, and that they’ll do it on the ground and through the air.
Falcons Considerations
Last week, Cordarrelle Patterson’s return culminated in two touchdowns. But he also returned to a very different backfield than the one he left after landing on injured reserve following Week 4. As Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley ascend, we might wonder what role Patterson will play going forward.
Some might say, “surely he’ll remain a key cog in this offense.” But one of the concerns I have is his inexplicable drop-off in the receiving game. Last year, he caught 52 passes. By contrast, he’s caught only two in his last four games.
In fact, nearly 60% of his fantasy points last season came through the air. This year? 11%.
It’s still early. But Patterson might be deceptively more TD-dependent than many bettors realize. We can craft a DFS lineup that aligns with a likely game script for this contest, and which includes either Patterson or Marcus Mariota. With Carolina giving up 24+ points in five of their last six games, I’d rather lean on the QB than the 31-year-old running back.
Top NFL DFS Picks for TNF
Today, we’re playing FanDuel “MVP” mode, which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus four Flex players.
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The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
MVP: RB D’Onta Foreman, Panthers ($11,000)
Unlike DraftKings’ similar “Captain” competitions, FanDuel doesn’t require us to invest 1.5x the price on our MVP. So we can take our pick. While Moore is a great high-ceiling bet against perhaps the worst pass defense in NFL history (more on that below), Foreman’s do-it-all production wins him the MVP nod in this slate.
Flex: QB Marcus Mariota, Falcons ($17,000)
Mariota’s been shut down frequently, and he’s also shined frequently. Which version will we see tonight? It’ll be a battle regardless, and I expect Mariota to hang in and keep throwing, just like he did in the last meeting between these two teams back in Week 8. It helps that Allgeier might be getting a little more run in the passing game, elevating Mariota’s ceiling.
Flex: WR DJ Moore, Panthers ($12,000)
I’ve examined every season since 1970. This year’s Falcons have surrendered more passing yards per game than any team in the last 52 years. Moore has been PJ Walker’s favorite target. While Walker could get pulled at any time, as long as he’s on the field, Moore should deliver big-time.
Flex: RB Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($10,000)
An important pairing with Foreman. While we could go with Marshall ($9,000) instead, I prefer Hubbard’s likely volume and TD potential. Marshall’s touchdowns have been impressive, but Hubbard can achieve comparable DFS production even if he doesn’t score.
Flex: TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($8,500)
I started writing about Allgeier and how his touches barely dipped in Patterson’s Week 9 return. But if I’m betting on Mariota, it makes more sense to bet on his top receiver.
After all, I’ve designed this slate around the strong possibility that Carolina will win and that the Falcons will be forced to play catch-up for at least a good chunk of the game. Picking among Patterson, Allgeier, and Huntley is essentially guessing which one will score.
And we could argue that all three Atlanta RBs are startable. Look what Joe Mixon against Carolina did last weekend.
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But let’s not overstate macro stats. While the Panthers struggle against the run, they kept Allgeier and Huntley in check two weeks ago. They did the same against the Buccaneers, Rams, Cardinals, and even Saquon Barkley’s Giants.
When the chips are down in the fourth quarter, I expect Mariota to air it out, and when he does, I’m betting on Pitts as his primary target.
