Understanding the NFL Divisional Round betting trends is one of the best ways to decide what NFL betting strategies you are going to utilize for the games this week and where the public can find additional value. As we examine the NFL betting trends for this week, we will look for the opportunity to apply a betting strategy called “Dutching,” which can help lower our risk and increase the likelihood of a profit.
Luckily for us, Pikkit tracks all of the bets placed in their community. That feature is one of the reasons we’ve named Pikkit the best bet-tracking app on the market.
NFL Betting Strategies for Divisional Round
Dutching is one of many NFL betting strategies used to spread the risk across multiple outcomes in a single event. The idea is to place multiple bets on different outcomes to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome.
The bettor will calculate the potential return for each outcome and then place bets in proportion to the potential return. This way, if one outcome loses, the bettor will still make a profit from the other outcomes.
Typically, in an NFL playoff game, there are two outcomes: a winner and a loser, with each team representing one or the other. However, most sportsbooks have prop bets that allow wagers to be placed on winning margins.
Using my Behavior Bets sports betting model and its score prediction capabilities, I have come within an average of 5.3 points of each team’s actual score in any given week this NFL season. This allows me to have a high degree of confidence in potential winning margins.
With that confidence, I can place bets on two to four different winning margins, knowing I am going to lose on one to three of those bets. But the one I hit on will provide winnings that cover the losses and net me a profit.
Winning margin props always have plus odds at the sportsbooks. Meaning as long as the lowest odds you select for a given winning margin net you a profit across the total amount that you bet, you’re golden. Below, I deploy this NFL betting strategy for each game.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Using my Behavior Bets model, I have the Kansas City Chiefs winning this game by three points. The public is all over the Chiefs in this one. The latest NFL betting trends in this game see 83% of the bets coming for the Chiefs on the moneyline. They are a bit savvy on the spread, as only 58% of the bets have the Chiefs covering what is an 8.5 spread.
MORE: NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Thus, the beauty of dutching. The winning margins I like for this one come from Caesars Sportsbook, where if you place your first wager of $10 or more, you get 100% of your stake back as a Bet Credit, up to $1,250, if you lose.
- Kansas City 1-6 points +295
- Kansas City 7-12 points +380
- Kansas City 13-18 points +410
My full breakdown of using this NFL betting strategy for this game explains how I chose these margins over other ones and why a Jacksonville win is very unlikely, even more so than the KC winning by any of these three margins.
Bills vs. Bengals
My Behavior Bets model sees the Cincinnati Bengals winning in an upset over the Buffalo Bills, taking this game by four points despite being 5.5-point underdogs. The NFL betting trends on this game are interesting, as the public is split on the money line, with 51.5% of the bets actually picking the Bengals to win and 76.3% of the bets picking the Bengals to cover.
The best odds on winning margins for this one come from DraftKings, where you can get a $50 free bet with your first deposit. The three winning margins I like are:
- Bengals 1-6 points +425
- Bills 1-6 points +275
- Bengals 7-12 +750 OR Bills 7-12 +360
My full breakdown of this game using this NFL betting strategy explains why I’m picking these margins specifically and why an option to add a third margin could further limit your risk, but you need to be ok with a diluted profit.
Eagles vs. Giants
The Behavior Bets model sees this game going the Eagles’ way in a hard-fought three-point victory. The public agrees that Philly wins, with 78.3% of the bets coming in on the Eagles’ moneyline. The public also thinks it will be close, with 54.7% of the bets coming on the Giants covering a 7.5-point spread.
The best winning margin odds in this one come from PointsBet, where with “PointsBet Second Chance,” if your first Fixed Odds cash bet of the day loses, you’ll get a Second Chance in Bet Credits.
- Giants 1-6 points +550
- Eagles 1-6 points +330
- Eagles 7-12 points +400
My full breakdown of this game and how I apply this NFL betting strategy looks at why these margins were selected and what the profit-winning opportunity is.
Cowboys vs. 49ers
The 49ers are most likely to win this game by close to 10 points, much closer than the 3.5-point spread the books have this game set at, according to the Behavior Bets model. The public is split on the winner, with only 51% of the bets coming in on San Francisco to win. 69% of the bets have Dallas covering.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions
Here is where line shopping and using multiple books can be helpful, as the best winning margins come from both Caesars and PointsBet.
- 49ers 1-6 points +300
- 49ers 7-12 points +425
- 49ers 13-18 points +550
- 49ers 19-24 points +950
My full breakdown of this game explains why I picked four winning margins here, as opposed to two or three, across two different sportsbooks, and how that plays as a part of this NFL betting strategy. A profit is a profit, wherever it comes from.