NFL Betting: PFN’s macro approach to winning money in 2019

Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. Hydrogen and oxygen. Add Chris Smith and smart, patient NFL betting to that mnemonic script of necessary duos.

Responsible gambling involves restraint. The emotional waves of watching NFL betting transpire requires a decision making motive that is stoic and objective. Sometimes, that presents itself as putting your tail between your legs for a few hours instead of trying to overcompensate for a poor early round of games.

Responsible gambling involves money management. Hooray, we’re glad you had a profitable week last week. It’s no reason to triple your units on each bet this week! Come up with your long-term plan, use Chris Smith’s proven system, and build your bankroll over time while ubiquitous NFL chaos beheads the whimsical natures of others.

Think of NFL bets like a hedge fund, not a lottery ticket

You have the gusto to throw down some dollars on NFL games — great. Why put it all on one game and succumb to the volatility of high stakes when you can hedge your bets and spread the risk over multiple games? Resist the temptation to treat NFL betting like a drug; there are hotlines if that’s how you feel.

Making money is possible with the proper methodology and calibrating your expectations. Winning systems are about the grind, not the shine.

Really, PFN’s gambling approach starts with Chris Smith.

Chris has the sort of self-deprecation you need out of your handicapper – the guy willing to bet against his own team religiously.

The NFL has a funny way of swinging the pendulum from week to week, and Chris’ grit helps him sift through the NFL betting chaos

Rewind the clock 14 years, and Chris blogged down in his mom’s basement. Probably ate bagel bites and sipped on Capri-Suns. During those existentially arduous years, iron sharpened iron, and he began tracking his weekly NFL betting progress. Married and with a family now, he no longer eats bagel bites, but the betting obsession blossomed into a consistent system.

In today’s age, you need receipts to know that this “proven system” isn’t a figment of the imagination. Transparency is an important currency in the PFN gambling section. Good and bad, you know where we stand: we will track every bet of every author throughout the season.

Receipts

NFL betting

NFL betting

NFL betting

During the last seven weeks of the 2018 NFL season, Chris went 19-12-2, or 61% win percentage. You’ll notice that a significant minority of his bets are more conservative than the -110 bet variety with 52.4% implied odds. (Don’t worry, there will be Gambling 101 articles coming out this week if “implied odds” is a foreign term).

NFL Betting: PFN's macro approach to winning money in 2019

139-106-11 in the last two regular seasons: 56.7%. Dig deep into your mathematics reservoir and remember that 56.7% > 52.4%. In which case, you have a winning system.

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