The NFL’s depth at the wide receiver position has considerably grown in recent years. Now, more than half the teams have a WR1 that fans can credibly argue is among the 10 best in the NFL. As a result, winning the triple crown has never been more realistic for the top target on several teams.
After three players won it in the first 50 years after the NFL-AFL merger, two players have won in the last four. One analyst believes the race is about to get tighter with a third name joining the list this season.
Could Nico Collins Win the Triple Crown?
The Houston Texans had a wildly disappointing season, at least on the offensive end. After many people pegged C.J. Stroud as a dark horse MVP candidate on the back of a phenomenal rookie season, he took a major step back in 2024.
Behind the second-worst offensive line in the league, per PFSN’s OL+ metric, and a wide receiver room that was devastated by injuries, Stroud couldn’t replicate his inaugural season success and ranked 27th by PFSN’s QB+ metric. It affected his teammates’ numbers as well.
However, a return to form could signal a history-making season for Nico Collins next season. And PFSN’s Kyle Soppe, in his bold predictions for every NFL team next season, believed Collins could have a year similar to the one Ja’Marr Chase just had.
“In nine of his 13 healthy games, Collins earned at least eight targets,” he wrote. “If that rate sticks for a fully healthy season, it’s not crazy to think his fifth season could mirror what Ja’Marr Chase did in Year 4.
“In those 13 games mentioned, Collins averaged 8.7 targets per game; if we only look at his highly involved outing, that number jumps to 9.9.”
At the 8.7 rate, his numbers reach 103 catches, 1,556 yards, and 11 touchdowns. But, at the accelerated 9.9 targets pace, his season could look like 118 catches, 1,777 yards, and 12 touchdowns. For comparison, Chase totaled 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns on 127 receptions this season.
The expected numbers would at least put him in contention for the crown, and that is without accounting for a better year from Stroud. “Stroud’s QB+ grade dipped by 14 points in Year 2 after an encouraging rookie season in what was a very discouraging result, but we can’t just ignore the promise he showed in 2023, can we?”
Simply put, a better year from Stroud and a healthier year for Collins could immediately drive his numbers up and potentially result in our third triple-crown winner of the last five seasons.
“The math from above comes in a down Stroud season, one where Collins dealt with an injury for five games. There’s room for a lot of growth in his profile, and labeling him as 2024 Chase isn’t a stretch in the slightest,” Soppe concluded.