In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. Through Week 13, the NFC’s home-field advantage race is a three- or four-horse contest.
The Detroit Lions are in the clear pole position, as they’ve won 10 straight games with their last loss coming in Week 2.
However, the Philadelphia Eagles are streaking themselves, and a pair of division rivals remain close behind. Below we examine the current outlook for the No. 1 seed for those teams using PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Detroit Lions: 11-1
The Lions controlled the entire first half of their 23-20 Thanksgiving win over the Chicago Bears before holding on for a dramatic finish that included a controversial pass interference call on the Lions and an egregious clock-mismanagement situation by the Bears that caused time to run out despite Chicago holding its final timeout.
As a result, the Lions remain the prohibitive favorites to earn the No. 1 seed and secure home-field advantage in the NFC with a 48.4% chance.
Detroit’s 10th straight win tied with the 1934 team for the longest streak in franchise history. Week 13’s close shave aside, the Lions have dominated during that stretch, outscoring teams by an average of 17.8 PPG in those wins.
The Lions have an extremely difficult remaining schedule, the second-hardest according to PFN’s strength of schedule rankings. A rematch against the Bears in Week 16 is their only remaining game against a team out of playoff contention, and they still have rematches with the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on tap (albeit both at home).
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2
The Lions aren’t the only NFC team on a long win streak. After an uneven 2-2 start that had many speculating about Nick Sirianni’s job security, the Eagles have ripped off eight straight wins to seize control of the NFC East.
Saquon Barkley has joined the MVP conversation with a historic start to his Eagles tenure. Barkley leads the NFL with 1,766 scrimmage yards, and his 13 touchdowns trail only Derrick Henry.
The transformation on the other side of the ball has been just as important. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has revived a defense that totally collapsed at the end of 2023.
Entering Week 13, Philadelphia had a 17.0% chance to earn the No. 1 seed. Now, after their big win over the Baltimore Ravens, their odds of landing the NFC’s top seed are 26.5%.
The Eagles do have a big schedule advantage over the Lions, as the Eagles have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league (vs. CAR, vs. PIT, at WAS, vs. DAL, and vs. NYG).
Minnesota Vikings: 10-2
The Vikings were the final unbeaten team in the NFC, but they’ve since fallen behind the absurdly hot Lions.
Still, Minnesota remains firmly in the race for the top seed with its own five-game win streak, exiting its Week 13 comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals with a 18.2% chance at the No. 1 seed.
Sam Darnold to Aaron Jones to give the Vikings the lead in the final minutes!
📺: #AZvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/T7eiscO1IY— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024
The Vikings’ first loss came at the hands of Detroit in Week 7, and they’ll almost certainly have to win the rematch at Ford Field to have any chance of usurping the Lions.
Even with a win in the rematch with Detroit, Minnesota has an uphill battle. The Vikings have the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule, as the Bears are the only sub-.500 team left on their schedule.
Green Bay Packers: 9-3
While the Packers are third in the NFC North, they’re also one of the few teams with a semi-realistic chance at the top seed. After their Thanksgiving night win over the Miami Dolphins and the Week 13 results, the Packers have a 6.2% chance of earning the top seed in the NFC.
The Packers are behind the eight ball, with two of their three losses coming to the Vikings and Lions (both at home). That means Green Bay almost certainly has to go on the road and win both rematches to have a realistic opportunity at earning home-field advantage.
Green Bay has the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule. Besides the division rematches, their other key game is a visit to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15. Depending on how the NFC West shakes out, that may become a critical matchup for NFC Wild Card jostling.