Aaron Rodgers finally gets to play football with the New York Jets. It’s been a long time coming after his season was cut short just a few minutes into the action in 2023. Game 1 will be as tough as any of them because he must go up against a San Francisco 49ers team that is hungry for a Super Bowl and now has contract disputes behind them.
New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
49ers -4 - Moneyline
49ers (-205); Jets (+170) - Over/Under
43.5 total points - Game time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Levi’s Stadium
Jets vs. 49ers Preview and Prediction
The Jets’ offense will be a tough matchup to predict because there are several question marks that have no legitimate historical backing.
Three of the five offensive linemen starting for the Jets are new to the team: Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson. Per TruMedia, there were 104 offensive linemen with over 500 pass-blocking snaps last season. Smith, Simpson, and Moses ranked 20th, 21st, and 41st, respectively, in pressures allowed per game. T
While this is a huge improvement from last season, New York still has to face a 49ers pass rush that finished 10th in generating pressure without blitzing. San Francisco was also top five in terms of opponent pass yards per attempt and overall passer rating.
The marquee matchup of Monday night will inevitably be the top secondary versus the top skill-position group. What makes this even better is that Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II have never gone up against Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. The only Jets defender with any experience against these two is D.J. Reed.
Reed has played 22 snaps since 2021, in which either Aiyuk or Samuel was the target. In those snaps, his team gives up 0.55 EPA (expected points added) per play. This is the 20th worst on the list. Luckily for Reed, he will have arguably the best corner in football as well as Tony Adams, Chuck Clark, and Carter to help out.
Another big question will be if the 49ers’ offensive line can handle a tough Jets pass rush. New York had the fifth-highest pressure rate at 40.3% last season. This was with the second-lowest blitz percentage in the league.
Per PFF, the Jets’ defense excels in certain areas. They ranked sixth in the league for incompletions forced by defensive line pressure and fifth for incompletions caused by coverage. However, they were 28th in incompletions resulting from inaccurate passes and miscommunications on offense.
In contrast, the 49ers’ offense ranked 23rd in incompletions forced by defensive line pressure, 31st due to coverage, and 32nd due to inaccurate passes. For New York to effectively stop San Francisco’s offense, they need to focus on forcing miscommunications between Brock Purdy and his teammates, as they ranked fourth in incompletions caused by miscommunication.
I think the 49ers are just too overpowered to be stopped. We have no idea if Rodgers will be the player he once was and how his chemistry is with this Jets offense. One thing we do know is that the 49ers are very good at football and covered in 56.3% of their games last season despite being favored by 8.06 points on average — 2.21 points more than any other team.
Pick: 49ers -4, 49ers ML