The New York Jets won against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2. The game was close throughout, but the Jets were able to close it out.
The New England Patriots had very low expectations coming into this season, but they head into this Thursday night matchup with one win against the Cincinnati Bengals and a tough overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Lines, Odds, Starting Time, and More
- Spread
Jets -6 - Moneyline
Jets (-258); Patriots (+210) - Over/Under
37.5 total points - Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
MetLife Stadium
Jets vs. Patriots Preview and Prediction
The Jets have been quite decent this season on offense, registering the 11th-best total EPA (expected points added) in the NFL. Taking into account their defensive opponents, the Jets have faced the eighth and 18th-ranked defenses in terms of EPA.
The Patriots fall right in line with this level of defense as they are ranked 14th, per Tru Media. All three of the Titans, San Francisco 49ers, and Patriots rank in the top 13 in terms of man coverage. The Patriots in particular, have used man coverage 41.2% of the time, good for fifth-most. The Jets against man coverage rank 14th in EPA, whereas the Patriots rank 12th when using it defensively.
The main key to a successful game for the Jets this Thursday is keeping Aaron Rodgers protected.
Rodgers and the Jets’ offense rank ninth in the league in EPA when he isn’t pressured (92 plays this season) and 22nd when he is (13 plays) this year. This bodes extremely well for the Jets, as the 13 plays where Rodgers has been pressured rank 30th in the league, and the Patriots’ defense ranks 26th in generating pressure defensively.
Looking at whether this is a Rodgers stat (he ranks second in time to throw) or a Jets offensive line stat, I found that the offensive line has given up only two of its 13 pressures in less than 2.5 seconds (the cutoff for a “quick” pressure). This is the 10th-lowest quick-to-total pressure ratio in the league.
The Patriots’ offense has been quite impressive relative to expectations, ranking 16th in EPA. Their best strengths have been passing the ball and staying on schedule, where they rank eighth in success rate. Success rate is defined as the percentage of plays where your EPA is greater than zero. This means Jacoby Brissett has done a wonderful job of marching down the field and limiting turnovers.
What makes this even more impressive is that it was done against the Bengals and Seahawks defenses, both of which are in the top 12 in generating pressure (Seahawks second, Bengals 12th).
When the Jets come into town, the Patriots will already be prepared for the pressure the Jets bring in the pass rush.
Overall, the Patriots have been a really tough team through the first two weeks of the season. They match up strength for strength with the Jets.
My Pick: Patriots +6
David Bearman’s Pick for Thursday Night Football
The Jets just aren’t good enough to be favored by around a touchdown and not against a Patriots team that has shown toughness and grit the last two weeks in beating the Bengals and losing late vs. the Seahawks. Also tough to lay this many in a game that I don’t see having much scoring. The offenses enter 20th (Jets) and 25th (Pats) in total yards and middle of the pack in EPA.
Two games in, Aaron Rodgers’ depth of throw sits at 6.5 yards, much lower than his Green Bay days. The current number of 38.5 doesn’t scare me as, over the last few years, this has been a low-scoring affair, with the combined score being 25 and 20 last year and 13 and 39 last year, with the 39, including a late garbage time TD.
It’s also a short week for both teams, one of which has an old QB coming off a missed season. Since the start of 2023, unders are 18-9 in divisional games with a sub-40-point total. Simply put, I don’t expect a lot of points, so I will take the 7 and the under.
Pick: Patriots +7 (-125) and Under 38.5