Set your alarm clocks, put on a pot of coffee, and get ready for some early morning football as the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons do battle across the pond. The Jets come into the game off their first win of the season, a 27-24 overtime nail-biter over the Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, the Falcons again gave up a lead in their 34-30 defeat to the Washington Football Team. Both teams are 1-3, so who will emerge victorious from the Jets vs. Falcons at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?
New York Jets offense vs. Atlanta Falcons defense
Statistically, the Falcons have one of, if not the, worst defenses in the NFL. But prior to the Jets beating the Titans, you might have said the New York offense vs. Atlanta defense was a close element in this matchup.
As we should expect from a young quarterback, Zach Wilson has had his struggles through the season’s first quarter. While we should have expected that, the former BYU passer and No. 2 overall pick was already being scrutinized and written off from all angles. Having thrown 7 interceptions, completed less than 60% of his passes, and been sacked 15 times in three defeats, he looked like a shadow of the dynamic playmaker we’d seen in college.
Yet, in the second half of the Titans game, Wilson came alive. The young quarterback looked creative, composed, and in command of the offense. Yes, there were some plays that he’d like back, but it was a performance worthy of a second-overall pick. It was almost like a light flicked on for Wilson, and head coach Robert Saleh expects him to build on that.
“He takes the good with the bad, and vice versa. He’s always trying to find ways to get better. He’s had a really good week of practice. Again, every week, the emphasis is footwork, eyes, progression. The off-schedule stuff that we saw, you really can’t teach some of the stuff that he does.”
Falcons’ defensive woes, New York Jets’ offensive resurgence
Going up against a Falcons defense that hasn’t forced an interception this season while allowing the most points in the NFL through Week 4 should give Wilson a solid base to build on in the Jets vs. Falcons game.
There is an age-old argument of whether coverage or pressure is the most significant contributor to defensive success. But what if you struggle in both facets? This is the issue impacting Atlanta as they prepare to face New York.
This season, they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their passes, the fifth-highest in the NFL. Furthermore, 7.9% of passing plays against the Falcons result in a touchdown, the second-most in the league, with 11 touchdowns given up to the passing game.
It’s hard to cover when the quarterback has all day long to throw, and the Falcons have the third-worst defense in the NFL in terms of quarterback pressure. They’ve gotten pressure on the opposing quarterback on just 18.9% of QB dropbacks this season.
New York Jets offensive line
They could have their struggles again this Sunday. Like their quarterback, the Jets offensive line is growing in confidence and cohesion each game despite losing first-round offensive tackle Mekhi Becton. After allowing 15 sacks in the first three weeks, Gang Green’s front five gave up just one sack against Tennessee. However, Saleh urges people to look beyond the numbers.
“Aside from the first game — credit Carolina, they got after us a little bit up front — every game since then has been pretty darn good, even though the sack numbers might show differently. Overall, the structure, the technique, and the amount of time has been really good.”
Meanwhile, the Jets are expected to return their full complement of offensive weaponry. Jamison Crowder had a triumphant return against the Titans, with 61 yards and a touchdown. Elijah Moore is out of concussion protocol and is set for a return too.
Advantage: Jets
Atlanta Falcons offense vs. New York Jets defense
While New York returns wide receivers in this Jets vs. Falcons showdown, several key playmaking contributors remained in Atlanta when the flight departed for London. The Falcons will be without Calvin Ridley, with the team releasing the following statement on Thursday:
“Due to a personal matter, Calvin Ridley will not travel to the Falcons game in London this weekend. We are in support of Calvin during this time and will respect his privacy on the matter.”
To compound their offensive weaponry woes, Russell Gage is out with an ankle injury. While fantasy football fans will be salivating at the potential for a Kyle Pitts breakout weekend, the lack of depth at the receiver position is alarming. Matt Ryan will need to lean heavily on Olamide Zaccheaus, Tajae Sharpe, and Christian Blake in the passing game, hardly household names back home in the US, let alone in London.
Or perhaps, their offensive savior will continue to come in an unlikely form. At the age of 30, Cordarrelle Patterson has developed into Atlanta’s most dangerous offensive weapon this season. He’s averaging more yards per carry in the run game than Mike Davis while leading the team in touchdowns and yards per catch.
Jets’ improved defense could overpower Falcons’ depleted offense
While their 1-3 record might not attest to it, the Jets’ defense has shown significant improvement since last season. They finished 2020 with a unit that ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in passing yardage and touchdowns allowed. Yet, this year they’ve allowed just 2 passing touchdowns. In addition, they sit in the top half of the NFL for passing yards allowed.
Like the Falcons, they have not yet snagged an interception. That isn’t something that concerns Saleh ahead of the Jets vs. Falcons clash in London this Sunday.
“Our corners are doing a heck of a job. We play a certain style of man, so you see a lot of PBUs. You saw Bryce [Hall] had like 3 PBUs last week. You see the safeties, Michael Carter had his hands on a ball where we’re playing zone defense and getting PBUs. We’re just a step off.”
While the secondary might be a step off, the Jets’ front seven hasn’t missed a step. Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers have been a force up front. Quincy Williams is tied for seventh in the NFL in tackles for loss. C.J. Mosley has been a vocal and physical leader of the linebacker group. As a result, the Jets sit sixth in sacks (13) in the NFL while creating pressure on 26.5% of QB dropbacks.
Most impressively, and worryingly for Falcons fans, the Jets have allowed a touchdown on just 1.4% of passes this season. That figure is comfortably the best in the NFL, with the Denver Broncos second at 2.1%. The Falcons can’t lean on an imposing run game to punch it either. They have just 1 rushing touchdown and average 86.8 yards per game on the ground so far this season.
Advantage: Jets
Betting line and prediction
Atlanta is, in my opinion, a surprising favorite, according to DraftKings. The moneyline is in favor of the Falcons at -140, with the spread sitting at -2.5. This has come down from Monday, when DraftKings gave the Falcons a moneyline of -190 and a spread of -3.5.
The Falcons should struggle to put up points on this Jets defense, as they did against the Eagles and Giants. Although they got the win against the Giants, I don’t expect them to do the double against New York teams. While the Jets’ defense holds Ryan, a little Wilson magic should be enough to give them a tight win.
Prediction: New York Jets 21, Atlanta Falcons 19