The New York Jets will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has one finish better than QB15 since September and is in the midst of a lost season. Trying to guess where his motivation lies is a fool’s errand, but in the short term, I believe he’ll continue to be aggressive in an effort to build up some sort of equity with this franchise for next season.
The Colts are the third most vulnerable on short passes but fifth-best at defending deep passes. Since Davante Adams came to town, he’s been used more in the short passing game with Garrett Wilson handling the field-stretching role. If this Rodgers/Adams thing is ever going to produce the type of upside that we had hoped, this is the spot.
Rodgers isn’t someone you should be counting on until we have proof of concept. He’s my QB20 this week and is going to struggle to crack my top 15 at any point moving forward.
Braelon Allen, RB
Braelon Allen has an interesting profile for dynasty managers, but for redraft purposes, he’s nothing more than a luxury stash that can be cut if the need arises. The rookie has seen his snap share decline in consecutive weeks. In the few opportunities that he’s had in those contests, he’s underwhelmed (5.3 points produced with an 8.7-point expectation).
Allen is a Breece Hall handcuff and nothing more. If you need immediate help, this is the type of player you can move on from, though I wouldn’t just cut him for the sake of cutting him. There’s a chance that New York goes into player development mode down the stretch, and that could result in a usage spike this winter.
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards). That’s a problem if this offense isn’t generating the type of scoring opportunities that we thought they would (one rushing score after scoring twice in three games to open the season).
On the bright side, he’s earned at least four targets in nine of 10 games, and his yards per catch are up 17.9% from a season ago. Due to the limitations of this offense, Hall is no longer a top-tier running back, but he does have a stranglehold on the lead role and can be started with confidence against a Colts defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs this season (118.2).
Davante Adams, WR
Davante Adams hasn’t quite exploded the way we had hoped since joining the Jets. OK, so that’s undershooting it — his production simply hasn’t been acceptable and could sink your season if extended.
Adams’ efficiency, 2024:
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5.6% production under expectations
- New York Jets: 32.9% production under expectations
You’re trusting the process here and hoping the numbers pan out with time. Adams had multiple chances to score last week (of three end-zone targets, one was tipped and another was a miss from Aaron Rodgers) and has commanded an on-field target share north of 34% in consecutive weeks.
Investing in this offense isn’t the most comfortable click these days, so I’m not going to blame you if you look elsewhere in DFS. However, with the Colts allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage this season (68.9%) and volume not a worry, I’m playing him in all season-long formats without much question.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Garrett Wilson’s volume, like seemingly every other meaningful player on this Jets team, is in flux. How is this team going to function the rest of the way? Is Aaron Rodgers going to remain bought in with New York’s playoff hopes being a thing of the past?
Those are concerns long-term but not things that I’m too worried about this weekend. In a small sample, Wilson’s per-target numbers have been encouraging alongside Davante Adams (compared to snaps without Adams on the field this season, Wilson’s yards per route are up 14.4% and his aDOT is up 23.9%). However, as you’d assume, the process of earning those looks has been a bit of a struggle.
With Adams on the field:
- 22.6% on-field target share
- 19% red-zone target rate
Without Adams on the field:
- 27.8% on-field target share
- 32.4% red-zone target rate
The Colts struggle to generate duress (26th in pressure rate), and that potentially gives Wilson time to work down the field. For better or worse, I don’t think we see 8.2 yards per catch like we did last week in Arizona. That, of course, means a wider range of outcomes to be aware of, but I’m willing to buy in as a low-end WR2 in the same range as a Darnell Mooney type.
Tyler Conklin, TE
Early in the season, the idea of Tyler Conklin was easy to track — he’s a big target in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that was coming off back-to-back-to-back seasons with at least 58 catches.
At the very least, I assumed there would be some scoring equity to chase here. But with this Jets offense failing to live up to expectations, there’s simply no reason to bet further on them. Conklin has posted a sub-8% target rate in consecutive games, and without red-zone drive volume at the level we expected, you’re looking elsewhere.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets Trends
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Sunday’s 30-20 loss to the Bills snapped a streak of 11 straight Colt games being decided by a single possession.
QB: Joe Flacco threw two interceptions on 135 pass attempts entering Week 10. Against the Bills on Sunday, two of his first five passes were picked off.
Offense: The Colts allow pressure 51.2% of the time when they face a blitz, the second-highest rate in the league (NFL average: 41.5%).
Defense: Indianapolis is the second-best team in getting pressure when blitzing (51.2%, trailing only the Packers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs dropped a touchdown on Sunday, but he caught at least six passes for the fifth time in seven games.
Betting: The Colts are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in their past nine road games played in November.
New York Jets
Team: The Jets are 2-0 on Thursdays with a +29 point differential but 1-5 with a -50 point differential on Sundays. They only have Sunday games remaining this season.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Aaron Rodgers completed 52% of his passes when under duress, a rate that has dropped to 37.5% since.
Offense: New York is the second-best team in terms of the pressure rate allowed for picking up the blitz (32% of blitzes create QB pressure; only the Bucs have been better through 10 weeks).
Defense: The Jets are turning over the opposition on just 6.8% of drives (27th).
Fantasy: Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards).
Betting: Overs are 12-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ last 16 starts in Week 11 or later in the regular season.