New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -7
- Total: 40
- Jets implied points: 16.5
- Bills implied points: 23.5
Josh Allen: As much as this team feels as if it is in flux with poor play and a change in the coaching staff, Allen’s fantasy value really isn’t in trouble. He hasn’t finished worse than QB15 since the season opener (yes, that was against these Jets) and has seven top-eight finishes, so far.
The firing of OC Ken Dorsey is likely to have some sort of impact on Allen, but it’s difficult to project too much until we have some data to work with. Even if the change negatively impacts Allen, his stock isn’t going to drop to the point where you realistically have to make a decision.
He’s still going to be a handful to tackle near the goal line, and his big arm is still a threat to rack up 275-plus yards through the air. Even if the moving pieces and matchup scare you, Allen isn’t going to fall lower than QB6 in my rankings and should still be started across the board in my opinion.
Breece Hall: We knew that finding running lanes would be tough for Hall the second Aaron Rodgers went down, but did you think it would be this tough?
Hall doesn’t have a rush of more than 10 yards in over a month, and during that stretch, he’s picking up just 2.5 yards per carry. That could, however, all change on Sunday against the 29th-ranked yards-per-carry run defense.
The hope of rushing upside is promising and is all I need to put Hall comfortably inside of my top 10 at the position this week. He has at least three catches in six straight games and 21 targets over his past four – a role that is supporting a stable floor.
Lock and load Hall for this week. He might swing your matchup in the late slate of games.
James Cook: After losing a fumble on his first carry of the game, Cook was sat down for a few possessions. I’m not sure that I buy that the benching lit a fire under him, but he did finish Week 10 with 109 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos and looked as good as the numbers suggest.
The fact that he has one rushing score on 120 carries and is generally not used in the same zip code as the red zone is obviously a concern. That usage pattern prevents him from moving up my ranks, but it doesn’t stop him from being a weekly lineup lock – even in a tough matchup like this.
Cook’s average finish has been in the low-end RB2 range this season, and that’s where I expect him to land this weekend.
Latavius Murray: He ran for 68 yards and a score as he filled in for Cook during the short-term benching, but he wasn’t as involved when the starter returned.
Murray is a roster-worthy player whose primary service to your team is that of a handcuff.
Could you plug him in if you’re in a tough spot and pray for a touchdown? It’s possible, and that makes him more useful than a Tennessee Titans backup RB Tyjae Spears type, but barring serious roster issues, you should be aiming for a greater role from your Flex spot.
Garrett Wilson: I’m not sure how impressive Wilson continuing to return viable fantasy numbers, despite a dumpster fire of an offensive situation, gets talked about enough. He’s not having an overall monster season, but four-straight top-25 finishes in an offense like this are astounding.
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He caught all five of his targets and scored when these teams met back in September – in a game where Rodgers was lost for the season, and the Bills were reasonably healthy on the defensive side of the ball. I expect him to improve upon his WR22 finish from that week in this matchup and am comfortable starting him in all spots, including DFS.
Stefon Diggs: If you’re worried about Diggs after a down week against the Broncos and Patrick Surtain, you’re new to this. It’s hard to go through an entire season without a dud, especially with a sporadic passer like Allen responsible for putting you in a position to succeed. Don’t worry about it.
Prior to Week 10, Diggs had a touchdown or a dozen targets in seven straight games, and I believe he has every chance to start a new streak along those lines on Sunday. In the first game of the season, he accomplished both of those feats in defeat, catching 10 of 13 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.
There’s no decision to be made here, you play Diggs, and you enjoy having the privilege to do so.
Gabe Davis: Are we nearing “stop trying to make Gabe Davis happen” territory? He has failed to catch more than three passes in four of five games following a weird streak of consistency that saw him find paydirt in a career-best four straight games.
He’s a situational play at best. I don’t mind rostering players like that, but you have to be confident in your evaluation process.
He’s a great player to start when you’re facing that powerhouse team in your league that has the edge on you in almost every spot. He has the potential to double his projected output in the right matchups thanks to his game-breaking ability.
Those big games, however, usually don’t come in tough matchups. He has overachieved against the Bucs, Jags, and Raiders this season. The Jets aren’t that.
Naturally, Davis is always one play away from a big day, but at this point, I prefer Dotson (vs. NYG) in a similar role. Davis is my WR37 as we sit here today.
Tyler Conklin: Nothing is exciting about Conklin, but on his way to clearing 55 yards for the fourth time in six games last week, he ran a route on 65.2% of Wilson’s dropbacks (per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet).
Conklin’s going to win you a week, but there’s a decent chance he holds service at the position. And if your team is strong elsewhere, that skill set holds value.
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He’s not much different than Logan Thomas and is a viable streaming option if you’re stuck.
Dalton Kincaid: We were right this summer in falling in love with the secondary option in this passing game; we just thought it would be Davis. Right zip code, wrong house when it comes to our analysis.
Kincaid has at least a handful of catches in four straight games and owns a season catch rate north of 88%.
As hit and miss as Allen can be, it’s clear that his rookie TE has earned his trust, which means Kincaid is firmly a starting tight end in all fantasy leagues for the remainder of the season.
Should You Start Aaron Jones or James Cook?
Give me Aaron Jones. I have them ranked back-to-back, so we are splitting hairs to a degree here, but Cook’s lack of scoring equity scares me in a tough matchup with the Jets.
There’s no doubt that playing Jones is something of a leap of faith given his disappointing output this season, but the risk is worth it in this advantageous matchup.
Should You Start Luke Musgrave or Tyler Conklin?
Tyler Conklin offers very little upside, but his floor has been steady for two months now and his usage is trending in the right direction. Both of these tight ends are on my DFS radar, but for redraft, I prefer to chase the floor at the position. I like the stable role of Conklin over the wide range of outcomes that come with betting on a Packer.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!