The New Orleans Saints‘ preview evaluates the fantasy football value of Chris Olave, while the Minnesota Vikings‘ outlook looks at this offense with Joshua Dobbs in town for the entire work week.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Saints -2.5
- Total: 41
- Saints implied points: 21.8
- Vikings implied points: 19.3
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: With multiple passing scores in consecutive games and 1,175 yards through the air over the past month, Carr is moving in the right direction. But be careful in assuming this matchup is a plus one. These days, it’s closer to a poor matchup.
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The Vikings have been a top-10 pass defense since the beginning of October. If you want to dismiss that due to the opponents they faced over that stretch, I understand. That said, they did hold Patrick Mahomes to under 7.0 yards per pass and forced Brock Purdy to throw more interceptions than touchdowns.
Carr ranks outside of my top 15 this week due to concerns about the matchup and overall possession count.
Joshua Dobbs: What he did last week was nothing short of special (his fourth top-10 finish of the season), and having the time to learn the names of his teammates and the language of the offense certainly can’t hurt.
That said, Dobbs draws a tough Saints defense that ranks top five in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating this season. They don’t rely on blitzing or pressure – a style of defending that worries me when it comes to Dobbs’ fantasy value because it likely limits his production outside of the pocket.
He’s currently straddling my top 15 at the position. If WR Justin Jefferson were to return to action, he’d end up on the positive side of QB15, and if not, he’ll fade back closer to QB20. If you’re in a pinch, I prefer Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell and Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson. Should Jefferson not return, I’d even prefer Carr in this game.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: After touching the ball 21+ times in each of his first five games this season, Kamara saw just 13 touches against the Bears (70 yards). The touch count is one thing, but the slim 31-27 snap share over Jamaal Williams is another.
This situation has my interest. I’m not yet adjusting anything in my rankings, but without a path to usage near the goal line, I have my concerns.
But even a Kamara skeptic has him locked into the top 20 at the position due to his versatility, which means you’re playing him.
Jamaal Williams: The snap share was good to see if you’re holding Williams, but picking up 12 yards on five touches didn’t exactly earn him an extended run.
I’m rostering Williams as more of a handcuff to Kamara than as a player I expect to work into standalone value. He’s a fringe top-40 running back for me, ranking alongside the Ezekiel Elliotts and Tyjae Spears’ of the world.
Alexander Mattison: With Cam Akers (Achilles) out for the season, Mattison’s lead role isn’t in danger, but it should be noted that this was a 27-23 snap split before Akers suffered the injury.
The Vikings want Mattison to lead their backfield, but they also don’t want him to be the only option to carry the ball. That puts Ty Chandler on the handcuff radar if you have deeper benches.
Mattison is my RB22 in this spot and should be started in most spots, even if the upside is limited.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: It hasn’t been the type of season we wanted from Olave, but is it as bad as you think?
Per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet, he has four finishes as the WR21 or better this season and is on pace for 161 targets. That’s not a bad profile for someone we are dismissing as a bust.
The structure is in place for him to return more value in the second half of the NFL season than the first half.
It can’t be overlooked that the actual production (under 60 yards in three straight games and in five of his past six) has lagged well behind his usage and that this Vikings defense is playing at a high level.
I’m sticking with Olave as a top-15 play this week, trusting that the talent/target combination will reward me more often than not.
Michael Thomas: Before the goose egg against the Bears, Thomas ranked as WR31-49 in seven of eight games, which is the general range he deserves to be ranked. He’s never going to win you your week, but complete disasters like last week are equally unlikely.
He’s been targeted 6-9 times in eight of nine games this season, which creates a floor that is appealing for a playoff-bound fantasy team.
I’m looking to add Thomas to my roster at a discount now with an eye on the Panthers-Giants-Rams-Bucs run that New Orleans goes on in Weeks 14-17.
Rashid Shaheed: I continue to think Shaheed has more in his profile than a true gunner, but until we get proof of him having access to a role upgrade, he can’t be trusted (six finishes outside of the top 50 this season).
The Vikings blitz often, which has resulted in a well-below-average opponent aDOT. You don’t need to convince Carr to check down, and this matchup points to a lot of that. I’m not tempted by Shaheed for season-long at all, and you can do better when it comes to DFS punt plays.
Justin Jefferson: He has served his time on IR and is eligible to play this weekend. But will he?
That remains to be seen (initial estimation: 4-6 weeks), but once Jefferson returns for the Vikes, he returns for you.
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Dobbs funneled nearly 27% of his targets to his WR1 while in Arizona. I’d expect that usage to be something of a floor as Jefferson returns to health.
This isn’t a great matchup, but given the risk that comes as you navigate outside of the top 25 at the position, Jefferson’s raw talent is worth a roll of the dice.
Jordan Addison: That WR1 target share gets transferred onto Addison should Jefferson sit, a receiver who quietly has proven to have a reasonable floor (over 50 receiving yards in seven of nine games).
I’m much more comfortable with Addison if Jefferson remains sidelined, but he won’t be a top-30 receiver for me this week. I’d rather flex Mattison.
If you’re looking for a receiver in this range that I prefer to Addison, it would be Jahan Dotson (8+ targets in three straight).
K.J. Osborn: A helmet-to-helmet collision sidelined Osborn for the second half of Week 9 and puts his status for this weekend very much in question. Brandon Powell is seemingly the next man up with Trishton Jackson getting an extended run following the injury.
In short, I don’t trust this Vikings offense sans Kirk Cousins to produce multiple viable fantasy receivers. If Jefferson is active, I’m out on Addison. If not, I’m out on whoever you want to label as the WR2 in this offense.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Juwan Johnson played 18 more snaps than Hill last week and doubled his route count. However, Hill is seemingly inevitable these days.
When all was said and done last week, Hill was on the field for 29 snaps and involved in 17 of them (one pass, five targets, and a team-high 11 carries). At this point, Hill is a weekly starter without much question. His unique role lends him a floor that is above the non-elite at the position, and the usage has his ceiling of the Tier 2 tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson: With at least six catches in four straight games and seven of nine this season, Hock is giving his fantasy managers an edge on almost every other team. Jaren Hall missed him on a four-yard TD — it’s only a matter of time until the scores come (one touchdown since scoring twice in Philadelphia during the Week 2 loss).
With news that he will be limited, Hock dropped from TE2 to TE5 in my rankings. I am still playing him across the board thanks to his role and value to this passing game without Jefferson. A “snap count” could mean fewer snaps as a blocker — fewer contact sort of plays. I still believe he will be used plenty and return value at a position that always lacks usable options!
Should You Start Chris Olave or Davante Adams?
We are talking about a pair of star receivers that have left fantasy managers wanting more. I lean toward Olave this week, understanding that he has a greater connection with his quarterback and is in a better matchup.
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Could Adams have a big game? It’s possible, but the Jets not only play elite defense, they excel at shortening the game. I think Olave gets more opportunities in a better matchup, making him my play in this spot.
Should You Start Alexander Mattison or James Cook?
Mattison comes with a reasonable floor, but I’m happy to chase the upside that comes with Cook in his head-to-head. Cook’s ability to make splash plays is no secret (18+ yard touch in six of his past eight games), and that has my interest in facing the worst yards per carry defense in the NFL.
For what it’s worth, I have both of these backs labeled as RB2s this week, I am comfortable starting in all formats.
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