Wednesday’s Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers game comes with as much anticipation as asterisks. LeBron James remains sidelined with a groin injury, and the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray tandem missed Denver’s last game. But with uncertainty comes value, and I think we have a chance to find it here.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Best Bet
Injury reporting in the NBA isn’t great. That’s just a fact. Still, sportsbooks know how much attention a matchup like this draws, so they didn’t hesitate to post lines — even with Jokic and Murray listed as questionable.
I think they both suit up, but with their status still up in the air, the books had to bake in some risk. That’s where I see the edge.
Before Monday night — a road game against the Golden State Warriors and the sixth game in nine days — Jokic had played 62 of 68 games, and Murray had played 61. Both have pushed through bumps and bruises all season. But the Nuggets gave them the weekend off, seemingly willing to punt one game (which they somehow won) rather than risk multiple games by staggering their rest.
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That tells me they’re good to go tonight, and if that’s confirmed, I expect this spread to move.
Get in now.
Denver ranks second in offensive efficiency this season and has been a top-seven offense every year since the pandemic began. As long as Jokic is running the show, this is an elite unit — no debate.
The Lakers have felt the impact of James’ absence, but not the way most of us expected — not a few weeks ago and definitely not at the start of the season.
Ten games before James’ injury
- 113.6 offensive rating
- 106.5 defensive rating
Five games since James’ injury
- 116.5 offensive rating
- 116.7 defensive rating
Yep, the real hit has come on defense. Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves have kept the offense afloat, but without The King, they’ve been exposed on the other end. And the Nuggets are not the team you want to face in that spot — especially with their stars rested since Saturday.
In their 28 best offensive games this season, Denver is 26-2. Of the 16 played since New Year’s, they’re a perfect 16-0.
Aaron Gordon STEPPED UP for the Nuggets in the big victory!
😤 38 PTS
😤 6 REB
😤 4 3PMThat's his highest point total as a member of the @nuggets! pic.twitter.com/2AQKG0k0AV
— NBA (@NBA) March 18, 2025
One of those wins came against the Lakers, but that game was played without Dončić, so I’m not reading much into it. Still, with him out, you’d think defense would’ve been the focus, right?
If it was, it didn’t show. Murray was comfortable all night — five made threes and just two turnovers in 39 minutes. Jokic got whatever he wanted — 8-of-12 on twos and 17 free-throw attempts.
Why would tonight be any different? A healthy Dončić might help the Lakers score more, but no one’s calling him a defensive stopper. Honestly, it’s probably the opposite — his offense makes their defensive holes even easier to spot. His court vision sparks transition, and with more pace comes more possessions — more chances for those defensive struggles to show.
Long term, I have concerns about Denver relying so much on a couple of guys. But tonight? This is a one-game bet, and Jokic and Murray are rested.
I’m in.
Pick: Nuggets moneyline (-110, FanDuel)