I know we all love the NFL, but a Sunday matinee featuring each conference’s No. 2 seed in the Association is a pretty solid way to spend an afternoon.
In this Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics interconference battle, we get to see two of the best in the game do battle. But, for us hoop nerds, we also get to see polar-opposite game plans face off.
Boston wants to launch threes to set up even more bites at the long-ball apple, while Denver wants to bloody your nose.
OK, “bloody your nose” is a bit dramatic, but the beautiful mind that is Nikola Jokic results in a much less modern attack, yet one that is as efficient as any in the sport.
What wins out today?
Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics
Boston is as talented as any team in the league. The Celtics proved it last season with a title and have a real chance to repeat this summer.
No one is debating that.
The “how” behind their wins is no secret – they want to out-math you. They are comfortable that, over the course of 48 minutes, their three-point barrage is going to win out as they chase you off with triples.
Generally speaking, I love this approach. I think it’s viable for any team, and one that is as loaded from top to bottom as the C’s can win at the highest of levels by playing this way.
But might Denver be the exception?
Nikola Jokić with another insane month averaging a triple-double:
27.3 PTS / 12.3 REB / 11.6 AST pic.twitter.com/LlxVBuCc15
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) March 1, 2025
They own the lowest three-point attempt rate in the league for a second consecutive season and that’s not an accident – why settle for jumpers when your annual MVP candidate can generate high-percentage looks all over the court wherever his teammates are most comfortable?
The proof is in the pudding.
Over the past 27 months, the Nuggets are 36-8 (81.8%) when under 31% of their shots come from downtown.
Translation: They are fully comfortable in the exact situation that Boston wants to put them in.
Part of the Celtics’ equation, of course, rises above this. All they’ve done is win 22 straight games when making at least 22 triples. The symmetry in that statistic is nice and it gives them a pretty clear out even if Denver dominates the interior, but the risk factor is certainly higher against a team that should be scoring with consistency.
I’ll take the bait here, but I’m waiting until closer to tip-off. The Celtics are an awfully public team, and with them being labeled as a small home favorite, on normal rest following consecutive losses, and with the next two days off – I expect this number to trend in a favorable direction for those of us looking to bet on the Nuggets.
Pick: Nuggets both ATS and moneyline