The NBA playoffs are designed to leave us with the best teams chasing a title as we move into summer, but with the talent pool as deep as it’s ever been, upsets are certainly possible in the first few weeks of action.
Should you feel safe about your favorite team? Are you like me, a fan of an eliminated team just looking to profit from the NBA’s second season? I’ve got you covered on both fronts for every series that sits ahead of us.
NBA Playoff Insights: Eastern Conference Round 1
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
The Miami Heat used quick starts (+20 in first quarters) to become the lowest-seeded team in NBA history to make the playoffs. And their reward is a historically good Cleveland Cavaliers team that had three win streaks of at least a dozen games.
- Season Series: Cavaliers won 2-1
- Cavaliers ATS Record: 48-33-1
- Heat ATS Record: 39-45
It’s easy to look at this series as a sacrificial lamb situation (Cleveland opened as a -1800 favorite to advance), and while there’s no way I’m stepping in front of the East’s top seed, I’m not sure it’ll be as stress-free as the oddsmakers have listed it.
Miami’s Last 16 Games
- 10 wins
- 5 losses by fewer than five points or in overtime
A very different version of this Cleveland team was dragged into a rock fight with the Orlando Magic last postseason (seven games). That’s unlikely to be the case in this series, though it’s worth noting that the last time these teams played, no one scored more than 27 points in a quarter over the final three.
It’s going to have to be ugly if Miami is going to hang around. In the final three games of Round 1 last season, Donovan Mitchell scored 38.2% of Cleveland’s points, channeling his inner Kobe Bryant with 86 shot attempts over that stretch.
Mitchell has more consistent support this year with the development of Evan Mobley and the confidence of Darius Garland (40% or better from 3 every month this season except the finishing stretch).
Basketball is a game of runs, but this lines up as too great a mismatch to worry about those runs lasting for a full 48 minutes. Cleveland is a top-three team in eFG% on both ends of the floor, while Miami doesn’t rank better than league average on either side.
Cleveland lost just once in December and once in February. Asking an undermanned Miami team that has played six games since Cleveland’s starters last took the floor to beat them twice in 11 days isn’t something I want to bet on.
- Cavaliers sweep (+198, FanDuel)
- Cavaliers in 5 (+200, DraftKings)
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
We got the full Magic experience in Orlando’s play-in game vs. the Atlanta Hawks — losing both middle quarters, including an 18-point eyesore in the third — but bookending those periods with two 12-minute stretches where they outscored the visitors 73-39.
The potential of this team is high enough to make the series more competitive than the public believes if they can reach their ceiling consistently, but that hasn’t happened in six months.
- Season Series: Magic won 2-1
- Celtics ATS Record: 38-43-1
- Magic ATS Record: 42-41
This is a mismatch on nearly every level, and that’s going to be the case for a few of these first-round series. Like March Madness, we have to get through some talent gaps before the real showdowns.
Do the Boston Celtics have seven of the top nine players in this series?
The defending champs won 16 of 19 playoff games last postseason, including a 10-game win streak once they hit their stride. I’m not ruling out a similar stretch this time around in the top-heavy East, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a betting angle.
- Boston Celtics: 115.2
- Orlando Magic: 100.9
That’s my neutral court score projection based on their profiles. The spread is close to what oddsmakers have, but the total feels off, which has me leaning toward the rare playoff “over” until proven otherwise.
To be clear, this is more of a bet on Boston. During the regular season, they held opponents under 95 points 12 times. In those games, they cleared 120 points themselves seven times. They scored more than 110 in 63 of 82 games (76.8%) — their offensive floor is strong enough that current totals look a bit low.
Last season, Boston’s Round 1 opponent wanted to ugly things up (the winning team averaged 109.5 points). In that five-gamer, the Celtics averaged 63 first-half points, putting any sub-210 total in a great spot.
Either Orlando keeps pace and you’re over halfway there at the break, or they fall behind and open the door for garbage-time scoring that still cashes.
Pick: “Over” in total points for every game sub-210
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
This matchup features a pair of dynamic point guards and is a good snapshot of the Detroit Pistons’ season. The New York Knicks beat them by 30 on Nov. 1 for their 16th straight win in the series, but Detroit won the next three matchups — including two at Madison Square Garden.
- Season Series: Pistons won 3-1
- Knicks ATS Record: 40-41-1
- Pistons ATS Record: 42-37-3
So, through 82 games, what have we learned?
Detroit losing 15 of its first 24 games feels like ages ago. Since then, they’ve given just about every team problems, as Cade Cunningham’s stardom has become clear.
The scary part? The future might be brighter than the present with Jaden Ivey’s rise, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win a series now.
Tobias Harris has shot 41% from 3 since the All-Star break, and if he and Malik Beasley become a reliable tandem next to Cunningham, this team can score in bunches.
For New York, OG Anunoby stepped up when Jalen Brunson was out without losing efficiency. The 27-year-old is coming off the best scoring season of his career and has 36 playoff games under his belt.
Josh Hart and Anunoby anchor the defense for a team that leans hard on that end. Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns create matchup problems, but without defensive buy-in, it won’t matter. The stars will get the spotlight, but Hart and Anunoby are just as important.
We’ve known what the Knicks are for a while. Their defense is improving, but they’re still the same overall team. Detroit, on the other hand, has made clear progress, and that has me expecting a long series.
Through 71 games, the Pistons turned it over on 13.4% of possessions and grabbed 48.1% of missed shots. Over the past three weeks, they’ve dropped turnovers to 10.2% and pushed the rebound rate to 52.6%.
You love to see it.
Since New Year’s, in games where the Knicks rebounded worse and forced fewer turnovers than their season averages, they went 8-5 outright (two OT wins, one non-cover), including a 124-119 home loss to Detroit.
It’s tough to lose a game where Brunson goes for 30 and 11 while KAT and Mikal Bridges combine for 53 points on 10-of-17 from 3, but that’s what happened on Jan. 13.
I’m not asking Detroit to pull the upset, just to be competitive. The Knicks are good at chasing shooters off the line, but that’s fine for a Pistons team that ranks ninth in FG% in the paint (outside the restricted area) and can finish at the rim.
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-115, FanDuel)
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Game ball gate!
Last winter, Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 64 points (20-of-28 FG, 24-of-32 FT) on the Indiana Pacers. However, he couldn’t get the game ball afterward, as the visitors allegedly took it with them.
Nothing says “axe to grind” like a weird narrative from 16 months ago. These teams split their March meetings, each winning four quarters.
- Season Series: Bucks won 3-1
- Pacers ATS Record: 36-43-3
- Bucks ATS Record: 43-38-2
The plan is for Damian Lillard (blood clots) to return at some point this postseason (per ESPN’s Shams Charania), but when that happens is still unclear.
My read? The Milwaukee Bucks are prioritizing the short term.
They want to win now, but if they can jump out early, that gives Lillard time to recover. Antetokounmpo has done it all this month — 31.8 points on 60.7% shooting, 12 rebounds, 11.8 assists, and just 1.7 turnovers per game — and his downhill game should work against the Indiana Pacers, who give up a league-high 45.9% of shots within 10 feet.
Let’s call the Pacers what they are, a high-variance team with wide outcomes. Their finish was solid, but they’re 3-9 outright in their 12 fastest-paced games. If they try to speed it up, they’ll have to deal with Antetokounmpo attacking in transition (Milwaukee is 7-1 in its eight fastest-paced games), including a 120-112 New Year’s Eve win in Indiana.
If Milwaukee slows it down, their 3-point volume drops, and that caps their upside (8-9 when under 30 3-point attempts, 42-23 when over).
The last time the Pacers won Game 1 of a playoff series was when Victor Oladipo dropped 32 while Domantas Sabonis came off the bench in a 98-80 win over LeBron James’ Cavs, with George Hill and Rodney Hood starting.
Since then, five straight Game 1 losses. A win now would buy Milwaukee time to figure out Lillard’s return without rushing.
If you like the Bucks around +160 on the Game 1 moneyline, why not split that and aim for a bigger payout?
Pick: Bucks win Game 1 and the series (+380, FanDuel)
Pick: Bucks win Game 1 and lose the series (+500, DraftKings)
NBA Playoff Insights: Western Conference Round 1
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Oklahoma City Thunder have looked like the best team in the NBA for most of this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have done little to change that impression. They’ve lost nine straight to Oklahoma City, with their average defeat coming by 16.9 points.
- Season Series: Thunder won 4-0
- Thunder ATS Record: 53-26-4
- Grizzlies ATS Record: 49-35
Whether it was multiple 10-1 stretches during the regular season, a 20-9 run by the Golden State Warriors in the third quarter of their first play-in game, or the early onslaught against the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis has had windows of excellence.
“Windows of excellence” might be enough to compete with 90% of the league, but when you struggle otherwise and enter as the No. 8 seed, you don’t get that luxury.
Instead, you get the Thunder. A team that ranks top four in efficiency on both ends, has the league’s best assist-to-turnover ratio, and hasn’t lost consecutive games since Thanksgiving.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has posted 50/40/90 splits over the past 54 games — a strong mark on its own, but even more so considering the volume (career highs in FGA and 3PA). And he’s now had two straight seasons with an assist-to-turnover rate well above 2.5.
Ja Morant (ankle) looked sharp getting Memphis into the postseason, but he’s not going to be the best player on the court in this series, which makes it hard to even give Memphis a game.
OKC feels inevitable, the way Boston did a year ago. And like those Celtics, maybe they drop one due to variance (Miami hit 23 3s on 53.5% in their one Round 1 win). Five different Grizzlies had a legit 30+ point night this season. (Sorry, Lamar Stevens, your 31-point finale was fun, but it was 41.9% of your season total.)
So maybe someone catches fire. I just don’t see it.
If you’re willing to admit OKC didn’t care much about the final week and a half, their last loss in a game with at least one day of rest was Jan. 29 at Golden State.
That was 79 days ago. Luka Dončić was still a Maverick, the Philadelphia 76ers were in the playoff picture, and the Los Angeles Clippers were in a stretch where they lost to both the Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors.
Yeah, it’s been a minute. And none of these games are back-to-backs. That has me thinking we get the minimum.
Pick: Thunder sweep (+165)
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Seeding doesn’t matter. As soon as Golden State knocked off Memphis in the play-in game, they were installed as -200 favorites to win this series against the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets. Playoff Jimmy Butler is in full effect, and that’s clearly factored into the odds, but is it right?
- Season Series: Warriors won 3-2
- Rockets ATS Record: 43-38-1
- Warriors ATS Record: 49-34
In five regular-season meetings, the Warriors scored 509, and the Rockets scored 507. It was tight the whole way. In the one game after Butler joined Golden State, the young Rockets went into Chase Center, absorbed an early punch (16-3 run in the first), and won by 10. Butler and Steph Curry combined to shoot 5-of-17 (16 points) over 66 minutes.
Banking on that happening again is risky, but it’s possible. And that matters at a +165 series price. Since Butler’s debut in February, Golden State’s metrics have spiked across the board, and the results followed.
However, the offense has looked sharp, but is it sustainable? Butler’s recent scoring burst (24-of-40 in two pseudo-playoff games, 55 FTAs in his last four) is impressive, but his usage was quiet before that (six games: 9.2 FGA and 5.8 FTA). If that guy shows back up, they’re in trouble.
The Warriors’ surge has also been tied to opponent turnovers (up 21.5% since Butler’s first game). That could work since Houston is young and mistake-prone.
But not as much lately. Since getting Fred VanVleet back, the Rockets’ turnover rate is down 12.7% over their last 11 games compared to the prior 30. If they get clean looks at the rim, I like Houston’s chances, especially with home-court advantage against the eighth most foul-prone team in the NBA.
Only three times since New Year’s have the Rockets lost multiple games in a row. One of those was a meaningless three-game slide to close the regular season. If they avoid cold streaks, the Rockets have a real shot. Still, with betting sentiment where it is, I’m going safer.
Pick: Rockets +1.5 games (-110, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
These teams met on opening night. The Los Angeles Lakers got 36 points and 16 rebounds from Anthony Davis, and outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 with D’Angelo Russell on the floor (-8 otherwise).
Yeah, that feels like forever ago. Now, we get two league faces clashing, like we saw Luka Dončić do last postseason when he beat the Wolves in five games while averaging 32.4 points.
- Season Series: 2-2
- Lakers ATS Record: 45-35-2
- Timberwolves ATS Record: 39-42-1
So yeah, they added this Dončić guy. Cold-blooded scorer. Used to live in Dallas. Now drops 30.9 per game in the playoffs (50-game sample).
Dončić and James are the headliners, but don’t sleep on this big three. Austin Reaves’ star rose in defeat to Denver last postseason (Games 3-5: 20.7 points, 48.8% FG, 60.7% on 2s, 6.5 assist-to-turnover ratio in 105 minutes). He’s even more polished now.
All three stars can create space and offense, giving LA a real edge. But what about defense? Right after the Mavericks trade, the Lakers looked elite per possession, but they’ve slipped a bit since.
And that might continue — at least to the level we need.
There’s no doubt where Minnesota’s offense starts. In games not decided by 25+, Anthony Edwards is averaging 24.6 shots and 7.6 free throws in April. He already led the team in shot attempts by 673 for the season.
Today’s defenses often focus on stopping the “others,” not the star. The Lakers have done that, too. In regular-rotation games this month, here’s how the top opposing scorer did.
- Cam Whitmore: 34 points (13-of-19)
- Naji Marshall: 23 points (9-of-14)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 42 points (14-of-26)
- Shai again: 26 points (12-of-23)
- Jose Alvarado: 27 points (10-of-21)
- Stephen Curry: 37 points (10-of-21)
If Edwards posts similar numbers, he wins this bet. Since the All-Star break, Reaves is taking two more shots per game than any non-Edwards Timberwolves player.
I like this pick; it’s outcome-proof. If they’re down, he plays hero. If they’re up, he got them there.
Pick: Anthony Edwards to lead the series in scoring (+185, FanDuel)
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
These teams haven’t met in over three months, so we’re projecting a little. The Clippers closed the regular season winning 15 of 17 (the losses came to the Thunder and Cavs, and both were close).
That said, LA is facing the best player on the planet and a team that’s 8-2 in first-round games over the past two years.
- Season Series: 2-2
- Nuggets ATS Record: 38-43-1
- Clippers ATS Record: 47-35
Jamal Murray’s 2020 playoff run (26.5 points on 51/45/90) always gets brought up this time of year. He’s still the No. 2 option, and while he’s been more efficient post-All-Star break, calling him a co-star might be a stretch.
For Denver to be a true threat, they need Michael Porter Jr. to rediscover his midseason form (40%+ from 3 from November through February), and they need the chaos of Russell Westbrook’s minutes to swing in their favor.
That could happen, but I don’t love that Westbrook’s 3-point rate is up and his free-throw rate is down since the break. He’s played in 122 postseason games, but only last year did he have this kind of role — and he shot 26% with as many assists as turnovers.
I like the Clippers — maybe more than I like fading Nikola Jokić. But with the series price dropping, the better value might be on a prop I’ll keep hitting.
The juice may change, but assist props don’t move much. Kawhi Leonard is listed at 3.5 assists entering Game 1 — and I’m fading it every time.
In the last three weeks, only one Clippers guard is really passing to set up teammates — and that’s James Harden.
Last 10 games:
- James Harden: 22.7% of passes are potential assists
- Ben Simmons: 17.5%
- Kawhi Leonard: 16.3%
- Kris Dunn: 8.9%
Those three non-Harden guys have just 13.8% of their passes setting up shots, which won’t get it done. Leonard’s shot attempts have gone up monthly (13.8 in January, 15.8 in February, 18.6 in March, and 19.5 in April). He’s here to score and defend.
With no more load management, Leonard’s usage stays high, but not in the creation department.
Pick: Continuing to pick on Kawhi Leonard under 3.5 assists