Boston is the best team until proven otherwise; that’s a benefit you get when returning the key pieces of a championship team. That said, this New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics game kicks off a full day of action across the NBA, and I think we are in for a good one.
Maybe even an upset?
Knicks vs. Celtics Best Bets
The Celtics were an absolute wagon at home a season ago (37-4), but at 17-10, their bid for a repeat hasn’t featured the same type of dominance at TD Garden.
That’s not something I’m labeling as predictive, but it’s interesting at the very least. We haven’t seen this Celtics team struggle with the Knicks’ defense, but the data suggests that it’s only a matter of time until they hit a road bump in this specific spot.
Hear me out.
What Boston wants to do is no secret — they want to put you on an island with their elite talents and jack up triples. They are easily pacing the league in 3-point rate and operate at the third highest frequency in isolation sets — fancy numbers that simply reinforce what you see every time this team laces them up.
That’s great. That’s how you want to play in 2025, and the Knicks haven’t exactly been praised for their defensive intensity consistently (they trailed Cleveland 77-50 at halftime on Feb. 21).
But let’s calm down for a minute. What if I told you that this is the sixth-best isolation defense and the seventh-best when it comes to opponent’s 3-point rate?
Interesting.
These teams last battled on Feb. 8, and Boston won every quarter at the Garden — they won by 27 and, to be honest, it felt like more. They are certainly capable of putting forth a similar effort, but I think there are better odds that we are getting a break on the spread today as a result than a repeat outcome.
In that blowout, Karl-Anthony Towns picked up two fouls in 23 seconds of game time, and it undid everything the Knicks wanted to do. He finished the game with just nine points on eight shots in his 28 minutes, giving Jalen Brunson (36 points on 18 shots thanks to a 13-for-13 outing from the stripe) essentially no support.
For those of us backing the Knickerbockers today, it was good to see their all-world guard have success (two turnovers in his 36 minutes), but a single player cannot down the reigning champs.
Jalen Brunson CLUTCH bucket ties the game late 😬 pic.twitter.com/foKSe5qCms
— NBA TV (@NBATV) February 21, 2025
Jayson Tatum was great (40 points in 37 minutes) because that is what he does, but it was the secondary pieces by his side that were the true difference makers (Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard made 16 of 20 shots and scored 39 points).
Foul trouble for KAT is never out of the question, and we’ve seen various Celtics break open games all season long, but to project what is most likely to occur, I’m happy to bet on a Towns’ turnaround and some regression for Kornet/Pritchard.
On top of New York’s profile being one of the few that lines up reasonably well with what Boston wants to do, two other notes have my attention.
The first is that the Knicks have consistently put points on the board following a loss. Even if they slow down the Celtics to a degree, their offense will have to score, and I think that’s certainly possible.
Offensive Output Following Recent Losses:
- Jan. 10 lost to OKC: 140 points vs MIL two nights later
- Jan. 13 lost to DET: 125 points at PHI two nights later
- Jan. 17 lost to. MIN: 119 points vs. ATL three nights later
- Feb. 1 lost to LAL: 124 points vs HOU two nights later
- Feb. 8 lost to BOS: 128 points at IND three nights later
I comb through as much data as anyone in this space; that is how I land on some goofy trends from time to time. I’m not suggesting that the Celtics can’t handle a shift in normalcy, but these Sunday games are usually a little different for the body clock than a standard tip time, and this one certainly qualifies as such.
Celtics: A Case of the Sunday’s
- Nov. 10 at MIL: Allowed 40 first-quarter points, lost the first half by 11
- Nov. 24 vs. MIN: Two-point win as an eight-point favorite
- Dec. 1 at CLE: Four-point loss (-16 in the fourth quarter)
- Dec. 15 at WAS: Outscored in the second half
- Dec. 29 vs. IND: Nine-point loss, 29.6% from 3
- Jan. 5 at OKC: 13-point loss, scored 27 points in the second half
- Jan. 12 vs. NO: One-point win, never led by more than five points
- Feb. 2 at PHI: Won but trailed by 26
I refuse to step in front of a team that I think is plenty capable of repeating with a strong wager, but I will tell you that, alongside a few nibbles at the Mexico Open, my Sunday betting card is opening with a little exposure to the road team here.
Pick: Knicks +8