NASCAR’s Next-Gen era, designed to level the playing field, now faces a stark reversal. Three seasons after the seventh-generation race cars’ 2022 debut sparked record parity, veterans warn the pendulum has swung back—decisively. Dominant performances by Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson suggest a new reality: The days of underdog victories are numbered.
With five winners in nine races, 2025’s trajectory starkly contrasts 2022’s 19-victor frenzy. Insiders argue that optimized teams and stagnant tire strategies have resurrected the old guard’s edge, squeezing out NASCAR’s surprise winners.
Insiders Deliver Blunt Reality for NASCAR’s Next-Gen Racing
Denny Hamlin recently talked about Next-Gen cars in a recent episode of his “Actions Detrimental” podcast. “2022, when this [Next-Gen car] came out, we had 17 different winners, … those days are done,” the Joe Gibbs Racing star said.
“If you run a pure race, like we ran this weekend [Bristol] … where you didn’t have these wild gimmick cautions… You’re going to have the best guys winning… They’re the best.”
His teammate Christopher Bell’s three-peat, a first in the Next-Gen era, underscores the shift.
Doug Rice, president of the Performance Racing Network, asked a question in a recent episode of PRN Live that ignited a debate. “We have five different winners right now in nine races. Ten is the over-under. Are we going under this season for winners – 10, or over?” he asked.
Echoing Hamlin, NASCAR veteran Kyle Petty was quick to lament the decline of surprise winners: “What happened to the years when we were like, we’re going to go 19! We’re going to go 20!”
“You know what, I’m going to say it’s going to be one of those streak years like this, so I’m going to say no…I’m going to take the under,” he then predicted, a far cry from 2022’s historic diversity.
The numbers validate their warnings. Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports account for eight of nine 2025 wins. Larson’s 411-lap Bristol rout and Hamlin’s back-to-back victories signal a widening gap between NASCAR’s haves and have-nots.
Why NASCAR Next-Gen Strategies Are Killing Underdog Wins in 2025
Next-Gen’s standardized parts were meant to curb team ingenuity. Instead, elite crews found loopholes. JGR’s pit crew, for instance, perfected a nine-second stop at Darlington using a proprietary jack, one of the few non-NASCAR-mandated components.
Tire management amplifies the divide. With minimal wear at tracks like Bristol, veterans conserve rubber while lapped traffic struggles.
PRN’s Director of Marketing and Industry Operations Alexis Erickson cautiously forecasts more than 10 winners this year but acknowledges the trend.
“I am going to go over, but not by much… I’m thinking probably more like 11, 12, maybe,” she said.
Meanwhile, underdogs face Talladega, a wildcard superspeedway, as perhaps their last stand.
Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega looms as a litmus test. The 2.66-mile oval, notorious for chaotic finishes, could disrupt the streak. Yet history favors elites here, too: 24 of its 52 winners triumphed only once.
As NASCAR’s second half approaches soon, one truth emerges: In the evolution of the Next-Gen era, parity has become collateral damage.