Connor Zilisch’s meteoric rise in the NASCAR Xfinity Series reached another milestone at Pocono Raceway, where the 18-year-old rookie captured his first oval victory.
As the young phenom continues to build his championship resume, veteran NASCAR analyst Denny Hamlin sees one significant obstacle standing between Zilisch and an Xfinity Series title: Justin Allgaier’s mastery at Phoenix Raceway.
The JR Motorsports driver’s recent success has been nothing short of spectacular. Zilisch led 34 of 100 laps at Pocono and overtook Jesse Love with five laps remaining to secure his second victory of 2025.
This win was even more remarkable because NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr. was his interim crew chief, calling the shots from atop the pit box.
The Phoenix Factor: Why Hamlin Believes Allgaier Holds the Key
Despite Zilisch’s impressive resume, including victories at road courses and his breakthrough oval win, Hamlin believes the championship will ultimately be decided at Phoenix Raceway. Speaking on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast, the 23XI Racing co-owner made a bold prediction about the season finale.
“The difference is this Championship is going to be set by whoever wins Phoenix. And I think it will be tough to beat Justin Allgaier at Phoenix,” Hamlin stated during the podcast episode.
Hamlin’s confidence in Allgaier stems from the veteran’s proven track record and current dominance. The 23XI Racing co-owner went as far as to say that even if Zilisch wins the next 15 or 20 races, “It just doesn’t matter.” According to Hamlin, Phoenix will be the ultimate proving ground where championships are won or lost.
Hamlin’s Phoenix-centric perspective reflects the current NASCAR playoff structure. The Xfinity Series concludes with a Championship 4 format, where four drivers compete in a winner-take-all finale. The highest-finishing driver among the four at Phoenix Raceway claims the title, regardless of their performance throughout the playoffs.
This format has created dramatic finishes, but also means that consistent performers like Zilisch must excel when it matters most. After years of near misses, Allgaier proved this formula works, claiming his first championship at Phoenix in 2024.
Current Championship Battle: The Numbers Tell a Story
According to the latest standings following Pocono, Allgaier leads the championship by 82 points over Austin Hill. The reigning champion has captured three wins in 2025, including dominant performances at Las Vegas, Homestead, and Nashville. His consistency has been remarkable, posting 10 top-five finishes and 10 top-10 finishes through 14 starts.
Meanwhile, Zilisch sits third in the playoff standings with two wins and 13 playoff points. His recent success has been particularly noteworthy, as he’s recorded three consecutive strong finishes since returning from a back injury sustained at Talladega in April.
The Road to Phoenix: What Lies Ahead
The championship battle between these drivers represents a fascinating contrast of experience versus youth. Allgaier has 485 career Xfinity Series starts and 28 career victories. His nine-season streak with at least one victory ties him with legends Kyle Busch and Mark Martin for the longest such streak in series history.
Zilisch, conversely, represents the new generation of NASCAR talent. His path to prominence began with his breakthrough at Watkins Glen International, where he earned the “generational talent” label previously associated with drivers like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. His first career victory came at Circuit of The Americas in March, establishing him as a road course specialist before proving his oval credentials at Pocono.
The remaining races will test both drivers’ championship mettle. For Allgaier, it’s about maintaining the consistency that has defined his 2025 campaign. For Zilisch, it’s about proving that his early success isn’t just a hot streak but sustainable championship-caliber performance.
As the season progresses toward its Phoenix finale, Hamlin’s prediction will be put to the test. Whether experience triumphs over youth, or if the “generational talent” can overcome the veteran’s championship know-how, will ultimately be decided under the desert lights at Phoenix Raceway.