Should I Start Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, or Cordarrelle Patterson vs. the Falcons in Fantasy Football Week 1?

Once again, the Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have options at the running back position heading into the 2024 NFL season. But from a fantasy football standpoint, are either Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, or Cordarrelle Patterson worth putting in lineups for Week 1?

Here are the fantasy outlooks for Harris, Warren, and Patterson heading into Week 1.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Najee Harris

Harris enters this season as the RB22 in Pro Football Network’s consensus fantasy football rankings. His ranking may be higher than expected, a possible belief that he will fit in better in new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system.

Harris has seen his fantasy production decline in each of his last two seasons. After averaging 17.7 fantasy points a game as a rookie in 2021, his production dropped to 11.5 on average last season.

Warren’s emergence has been a significant factor in Harris’ diminished role. Three seasons ago, as a rookie, Harris had 381 touches. However, last season, despite playing in all 17 games for the third straight season, he had almost 100 fewer touches (284).

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Jaylen Warren

Warren is the RB27 in PFN’s consensus rankings and continues to be the most versatile of the Steelers’ running backs. Yet, a lack of touches likely prevents him from a higher ranking.

Although Warren literally doubled his touches in 2023 (210) from his rookie season of 2022 (105), it was still far fewer than the amount that Harris had. Yet, these two backs produced nearly identical seasons in terms of fantasy production, with Warren (11.6 fantasy ppg, 196.4 total points) barely edging Harris (11.5, 195.5).

While Warren has returned to practice after missing weeks with a hamstring injury and is expected to play Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, his lack of practice time in the preseason is something for fantasy managers to keep in mind when deciding between the two.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson sits at RB84 in PFN’s rankings and far below his teammates. Fantasy managers should keep in mind that were it not for the fact that Patterson followed Smith from Atlanta (where Smith was the head coach) to Pittsburgh, his ranking could be even lower.

Patterson has been a solid multi-purpose back in the NFL for years. Although a valuable player for teams at either wide receiver or running back, Patterson has never provided much value for fantasy managers. And although he’s familiar with Smith’s offensive system, it didn’t help him on the field last season.

Patterson had just 59 touches in 14 games in 2023 and accumulated a total of 36.9 fantasy points.

Who Should I Start in Week 1?

According to Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer, Harris is the best choice of the three to start Sunday. He is projected to finish with 50 rushing yards, two receptions, 13 receiving yards, and 11.2 fantasy points.

Warren’s fantasy projections (9.8 fantasy points, 39 rush yards, 20 receiving yards, and three receptions) and Patterson’s (3.2 fantasy points, 12 rush yards, five receiving yards, and one reception) do not measure up with Harris in this scenario.

For Week 1, I agree with the optimizer’s projections. Harris simply is in the best position to be successful for the Steelers on Sunday. Warren’s return from an injury and Patterson’s overall decline as a player means that Harris has a good opportunity to have a productive start to his season.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Warren and Harris in Week 1

Najee Harris: Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring during the preseason, and while he looks set to be playing, I’m not using Harris in Week 1 if I can avoid it.

The story behind Harris has been pretty simple through three seasons – limited efficiency and a reliance on volume and touchdowns. The volume could remain, especially should Warren be a surprise inactive, but this profiles as an empty-calorie situation.

Last season, the Falcons (first in defensive rush EPA on first down) owned the fourth-best red-zone defense and coughed up just five scores on 390 running back carries; not only the lowest rate in the NFL but the lowest by an NFC team over the past decade.

A Harris manager is swimming upstream if these rates prove stable. He averaged just 6.7 PPR points per game a season ago when held out of the end zone.

Toss in the fact that this Atlanta offense should stay on the field more than it did in 2023 (25th in time of possession) now that Cousins is under center, and we could be looking at a low drive count for the Steelers.

If you have the luxury, I’d rather count on players like David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert – running backs on potent offenses with a well-defined red-zone role.

Jaylen Warren: The hamstring injury during the second week of the preseason wasn’t as serious as we had feared, and Warren seems to be in a good health spot entering this game.

On the bright side, we saw his snap share rise from 31.7% in 2022 to 48.5% last season, and it’s reasonable to think that Warren eventually leads this backfield in opportunities.

Key word: Eventually.

The injury set that timeline back a bit, and considering he has never played the majority of snaps in a September game (only one career September game with even 8.5 PPR points), Warren is not of interest to me this week. For reference, 10 PPR points were needed to be on the Flex radar last season.

I wouldn’t punt on Warren if this week is discouraging. At the very least, if he can separate himself in this passing game, he could see his highest usage games come late in the season when the Steelers close the fantasy season with games against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs – spots where the game script is likely to favor his skill set.