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Monday Night NFL DFS Picks: Patriots vs. Bills best lineup includes Matt Breida, Josh Allen, and Rhamondre Stevenson

If you're planning to make NFL Monday Night Football DFS picks for Week 13, here are two of our favorite single-game lineups.

If you’re planning to do a DFS Week 13 Monday Night Football lineup, have I got some picks for you. The following two fantasy football lineups are based on two different likely game scripts between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. So without any more delay, here are my two optimal Week 13 Monday Night Football DFS lineups, based on FanDuel pricing.

NFL DFS Lineup No. 1: Monday Night Football Week 13 picks

This lineup makes several assumptions — some conventional and others highly unconventional. We have to be bold in targeted ways, knowing that if we’re right, we’ll be at a competitive advantage over most opponents.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($17,500)

Look, this could be an intense defensive battle, pitting the two best pass defenses against each other. But Josh Allen has the advantage of being able to generate offense on the ground.

He’s one of the best rushing QBs in years, tacking on 383 rushing yards in 11 games so far this season. He also has an array of receiving talent to keep New England’s defense honest. If you have an MVP slot, Allen is a safe bet.

Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots ($15,000)

In single-game tournaments, starting both QBs is often a wise choice. Their floors usually are higher than most other positional players’, and their ceilings are comparable. We’re paying more for two QBs, but it’s worth it. Mac Jones is the QB18 despite being a rookie with a sub-par passing attack. In two of his last three games, he has 19.9 and 21.5 fantasy points. Even against Buffalo, we can bet on a good enough day to be relevant.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots ($12,000)

While we could spend $500 more for Damien Harris, I prefer Rhamondre Stevenson’s passing-game abilities, and frankly, he’s looked like starter material the past few weeks. If they’re near the goal line, Stevenson has a good shot at running one in.

Since early this season, I have been pushing the rookie as a must-roster RB in leagues, despite a lack of usage. He’s averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in each of his last four contests. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots ($7,500)

Head coach Bill Belichick could employ a dump-off strategy against a Bills defense that’s still excellent despite losing all-world cornerback Tre’Davious White. Brandon Bolden is cheap and offers a realistic 8-plus-point upside if things break right. The veteran has five games with 4+ targets despite being the No. 3 RB.

Matt Breida, RB, Buffalo Bills ($7,500)

Possibly a pricing oversight, the ultra-inexpensive Matt Breida realistically should lead Buffalo’s backfield tonight. Nearly every DFS lineup should include him based on upside alone.

Long overlooked, Breida finally started emerging in Week 10 and hasn’t looked back. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry, elevating his career mark to an impressive 4.9 ypc. Netting 2 receptions per game these past three weeks has helped keep him in the streaming conversation.

NFL DFS Lineup No. 2: Monday Night Football Week 13 picks

This lineup is a sharp departure from the other one. Instead of assuming a big day for QBs and RBs, it assumes each team will break through in the passing game. Several players will remain the same. A couple are different. Let’s see how to make this work.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($17,500)

If Buffalo scores, there’s a good bet Allen will be on the passing or rushing end of it. He’s still at the top of this DFS pyramid, and his receiving weapons are numerous, including Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and his running backs. This is a must-win home game for Buffalo. I’m expecting Allen to come through.

Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots ($15,000)

In the first lineup, Mac Jones is a hopeful QB1. This one assumes New England gets its aerial attack going. Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne join Nelson Agholor as capable receivers, while Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have given Belichick a tandem-TE weapon to deploy in the red zone. If anyone can exploit a defense’s weakness, it’s Belichick. In this lineup, we’re betting on Jones to execute the plan to near perfection.

Cole Beasley, WR, Buffalo Bills ($10,000)

Which Buffalo receiver will have the best night? Probably Stefon Diggs, but I don’t want to invest $14,000 to find out. And that’s no knock on Diggs, who has 6 TDs in his last six games. But of course, the Patriots will come prepared. So we’re going against the grain, betting against Diggs breaking through a pass defense that few have broken through.

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Instead, Cole Beasley is a reasonable investment given his chemistry with Allen. His 78.5% catch rate is one of the best in the league. Ignore his low touchdown total. Beasley is averaging more than 7 targets a game. His volume is enough to bet on a good evening.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots ($9,000)

Nothing flashy. Jakobi Meyers is the de facto No. 1 receiver. If he scores, we’re looking at 12+ points. I like his odds more than anyone else’s, and he’s cheaper than Kendrick Bourne. Like Beasley, Meyers has only 1 touchdown — his lone score in 21 NFL starts. Now, if that’s not a statistical oddity, I don’t know what is. Meyers has been Jones’s favorite target. We’re hoping volume will turn this lineup into a winner.

Matt Breida, RB, Buffalo Bills ($7,500)

Yes, Breida again. When the price is right and the upside is there, we need to take the leap. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots taking a big lead in this one. So, various likely game scripts should favor Breida throughout the contest.

BJ Rudell is the Fantasy Football Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here, listen to him on PFN’s Fantasy Football podcast, and check out his contributions in PFN’s free fantasy newsletter. Give him a follow on Twitter: @BJRudell.

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