As the weather warms, the MLB picture is starting to come into focus. We aren’t there yet, but we’re getting closer, and right now, we have some very clear winners and losers from the first month of the baseball season.
MLB Early Season Winners
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics
The Athletics’ sweet-swinging lefty has taken the league by storm early this season after entering the year with just 314 professional at-bats under his belt.
The power is what jumps off the screen — he has mashed nine homers in his first 27 games while slugging .602 — but the batting eye is what intrigues me when it comes to sustainability.
Before this season, Soderstrom was striking out 3.1 times for every walk, but that rate has been sliced to 2.2 so far. That not only gets him on base more often in an offense that lacks depth, but it also shows he’s swinging at strikes, something reflected in his 18.8% barrel rate (ranking him ahead of Mike Trout and Corbin Carroll, to name a few).
My primary concern moving forward is that Soderstrom could become a victim of his own success. In limited action against lefties, his OPS is 402 points lower than it is against righties — how long until opponents start prioritizing bullpen matchups against him, given the lack of support around him?
I don’t think this production is a fluke, but it’s also irresponsible to expect nothing but peaks without some valleys ahead.
Ben Rice, 1B, Yankees
Aaron Judge gets much of the credit when things are going right for the Yankees, and that’s fair, but let’s not overlook what Ben Rice has meant to the top third of this lineup.
Rice, Rice, baby!
Ben Rice is cooking for the @Yankees this season! pic.twitter.com/niYQBn0OMP
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2025
What stands out about Rice so far is his commitment to his approach. He owns a sub-40% swing rate and has been crushing early pitching (.424 batting average when putting one of the first two pitches in play). He’s a good player who understands the opportunity his lineup spot provides—seeing strikes and avoiding tough matchups with men on base.
He’s putting barrel to ball with a level swing path, which has kept his launch angle suppressed (6.9 degrees). That’s the perfect formula for a Yankees leadoff hitter, and he’s shown some pop when he decides to cut loose—a nice fear to plant in the minds of opposing pitchers.
Jung Hoo Lee, CF, Giants
The term “professional hitter” gets tossed around a lot, but this 26-year-old really embodies it. Paul Skenes and other pitchers preach about the importance of getting ahead in counts, and Lee has clearly been paying attention.
He has 14 hits in his first 21 at-bats this season when putting one of the first two pitches in play, taking what pitchers give him and spraying the ball all over the park. He rarely whiffs (6.1%) and has shown comfort against all kinds of pitchers.
The power profile might be lacking for a traditional three-hole hitter, but every lineup benefits from a steady approach at the top. Everything we’ve seen from Lee so far paints him as an elite asset in that regard.
Mackenzie Gore, SP, Nationals
Gore was the third overall pick nearly a decade ago, but he entered this season with more career losses than wins and an ERA north of 4.00.
Things haven’t always gone as expected for the lefty, but the pieces seem to be coming together now. During a recent run, he struck out seven or more batters in four straight starts, highlighted by a 13-strikeout effort at Coors Field—a place that demands elite precision due to the altitude.
He’s no longer just throwing; he’s pitching.
Gore’s chase rate has surged past 30% this season, thanks to experimenting with a cutter (6.4% usage rate after never throwing one before) and adjusting his fastball usage toward his curve.
Today’s second and third hitters are often the best in a lineup, and so far this season, those spots are hitting just .129 (four hits in 31 at-bats) with 13 strikeouts against Gore.
Development is rarely linear. Just because Gore didn’t shine immediately doesn’t mean he’s not a future front-of-rotation guy. And that “future” might be right now.
MLB Early Season Losers
Riley Greene, LF, Tigers
Detroit as a team is moving in the right direction, but Greene’s growth has hit a speed bump. He impressed at every step of his development and seemed destined for a middle-of-the-order role for years to come, but so far this season, he’s looked far from it.
With 17 strikeouts and just seven hits in 35 at-bats against lefties, Greene’s versatility, once a calling card, is being questioned. A spike in his chase rate has led to more groundballs and a dip in his average exit velocity, all concerning signs for a player the Tigers see as a foundational piece.
The season is still young, and Greene did get hot once June rolled around last year, so I’m not jumping ship yet. But the issues are real and need to be fixed sooner rather than later.
Julio Rodriguez, CF, Mariners
Yes, Seattle’s ballpark is pitcher-friendly, but that doesn’t excuse a franchise player like Rodriguez from hitting below .200 against both righties and lefties. It doesn’t explain his zone contact rate dropping from over 80% for three straight years to under 74%. It doesn’t justify a .077 average with runners in scoring position (two-for-26).
We entered 2025 believing the sky was the limit for Rodriguez, and I still think it is — but he needs to make serious adjustments. I’d usually expect positive regression soon, but the limited support around him could delay the math catching up to his raw talent.
Luis Castillo, SP, Mariners
Rodriguez’s veteran teammate picked a good spot to get right, tossing six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Marlins on Saturday. But the overall profile still isn’t where it needs to be.
Before that outing, Castillo had allowed 17 hits and nine earned runs across just 9.1 innings against the Reds and Blue Jays. His velocity has dipped slightly, and none of his pitches are grading out as a strength. With his walk rate nearing a career high, it’s clear he doesn’t fully trust his stuff right now.
I want to believe in Castillo. Half of his starts come at a pitcher-friendly park, where he’s allowed just four earned runs across four home starts this season (23 innings). He was slow out of the gate last year, too, before turning things around. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I need to see positive signs in his next two starts (at Texas and home against Toronto) before fully buying back in.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Rangers
Eovaldi has been a solid pitcher for a long time, but I’m close to jumping ship. The surface numbers look fine so far, but a .228 BABIP (career average: .301) is hiding a lot of issues, including a 4.06 expected ERA compared to his actual 2.21 ERA.
His groundball rate is as high as it’s been in a decade, and it’s rare for a 35-year-old pitcher to suddenly change his approach. Since his arsenal hasn’t changed much, it feels like he’s simply benefiting from the opponent’s bad luck.
I’m not suggesting Eovaldi isn’t still a big-league pitcher, but I don’t think he’s nearly as strong as his ERA and WHIP suggest right now. He faces Tyler Soderstrom in his next start, followed by matchups against the Red Sox, Tigers and Astros.
It’s early, but I could see myself betting against him in three of his next four outings if oddsmakers are still pricing him like an ace.