“If you’re not first, you’re last.”
Ricky Bobby, one of this generation’s great minds, uttered those words years ago and they are apt when it comes to MLB surprises during the first month of the season. With in-depth research, you can beat your friends in fantasy sports and/or the betting markets by understanding what to make of some of the standout, for better or worse, performances we’ve seen thus far.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a handful of players who have put on film something different than what was expected of them in 2025.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Jesus Luzardo has been one of the best pitchers on the planet to open this season as he has ramped up his slider usage and big league hitters have been baffled through three starts.
The former third rounder coughed up a homer to Keibert Ruiz in his first start, but in his 15.1 innings of work since that pitch left the yard, he’s allowed just 11 hits and a single earned run. Luzardo is striking out five batters for every one he walks and his ability to dispatch of the second half of lineups (5-9 hitters are batting .138 against him and have been three times more likely to strike out than get a knock) has prevented opponents from building anything close to a rally against him.
Jesús Luzardo's 5th and 6th Ks…and Sword. ⚔️✝️🦎
And K Strut. pic.twitter.com/cTbUnbomDK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2025
The schedule doesn’t stiffen in the short-term and that makes me inclined to believe that the level of domination we’ve seen up to this point is here to stay. No, I don’t think he’s winning the Cy Young this season, but could he lengthen this rotation to the point where the Phillies are to be labeled the biggest challenger to the Dodgers in the NL?
Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bamboozled. Led astray. Flabbergasted. Insert your own favorite old-timey descriptive word.
Zac Gallen has shown glimpses of superstardom during his MLB career and this was supposed to be the year in which he put it all together. Entering 2025, he had three straight seasons with a chase rate north of 30%, a knuckle curve that he was leveraging as one of the more dangerous weapons in the sport, and inducing contact that wasn’t close to dangerous. Those positive trends allowed him to pitch over six innings without giving up a run in four straight starts last April. They fueled a summer run that saw him give up two earned runs and strike out 22 batters across 18.1 August innings.
Where did all of that go?
None of that is true this season so far, as he’s not fooling hitters in nearly the same way and his GB/FB rate is basically half of his career rate.
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Baseball is a game of sample sizes and I’m forcing myself to not overreact. We saw poor stretches from the righty last season as well (4+ earned runs allowed in consecutive starts four times), so this isn’t completely out of left field.
But we were supposed to be past this. He was supposed to develop into a star that halts losing streaks and gives you a chance to win every single time he’s on the bump. I’m hopeful we can get there as the weather warms, but this is a discouraging start to the season on multiple levels.
Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres
I entered this season with some minor concerns on Dylan Cease after his first season in San Diego. Last year, his barrel rate rose to 8.5% after consecutive seasons at 6.2%, but his counting numbers were fine because his BABIP dropped by 67 points.
The concerns, however, were minimal and for the length of the season. I was fully expecting a strong start to the season because that’s what we’ve come to know and expect from the righty.
- 2021: 2.37 ERA through six starts
- 2022: 2.38 ERA through six starts
- 2023: 2.02 ERA through four starts
- 2024: 1.82 ERA through five starts
Through four starts this season, three coming against teams that rank below league average in runs per game, Cease owns a 6.64 ERA. Right-handed pitchers are supposed to shut down right-handed bats and that’s exactly what we got from the Padre ace a season ago (.189/.257/.295 batting slash with 127 strikeouts against 33 RBI) but couldn’t be further from what we’ve seen up to this point in 2025 (.361/.395/.500 with more RBI than strikeouts).
It’s early, but it’s fair to be concerned.
On the bright side, his expected ERA sits at 3.86, a mark that is in the vicinity of his previous two seasons (3.71), and his average exit velocity allowed is actually a tick better than it was in 2024.
His next three starts are projected to come against Houston, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh – the rebound could be coming and I’m willing to explore the betting markets in those outings if we get a reaction from sportsbooks based off the slow start, but I am watching Cease with more urgency than I anticipated at this point.
George Springer, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
In this his age-35 season, it was fair to wonder if George Springer was cooked.
- 2022: .267/.342/.472 with a 17.2% strikeout rate and an 88.7 MPH exit velocity
- 2023: .258/.327/.405 with a 18.3% strikeout rate and an 88.3 MPH exit velocity
- 2024: .220/.303/.371 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and an 87.5 MPH exit velocity
Things weren’t exactly trending in a positive direction. It’s not rare to see a statistical profile move in that direction with time and most had come to terms with adjusting their expectations for a former first round pick who slugged .540+ in three straight seasons in the middle of his career.
But wait. What’s this?
Through 16 games this season (48 at-bats), the right fielder has a four digit OPS and has seen a third of his hits go for extra bases. The average exit velocity is sitting at a career best 93.6 miles per hour with a launch angle that has rebounded in a monster way (up 41.5% from last season).
Is this real?
The rebound? I think so. The mid 30’s peak? I think not.
His BABIP does sit at an unsustainable .485 thus far and opposing scouting reports have mirrored our preseason expectations in that they haven’t feared him – Springer is slashing .370/.433/.778 with the bases empty, a signal that teams that been willing to challenge him in these spots.
That said, his patience has been moving in a positive direction and that gives him hope at continuing to be a viable run producer. In 2022, his chase rate was 23.8% – it’s declined to 21.6%, 21.5%, and 19.8% (this season) since. In this era of three-true outcomes, the ability to force the opponent to throw strikes is something that has gained tremendous value and that part of his hot start I do think is sustainable.
If his value is elevated in a major way in your fantasy league, I’d look to move on, but when it comes to his ability to lengthen this Toronto lineup, I do think there is something to his first two weeks this season when compared to where expectations stood after a poor 2024 campaign.
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu broke out to a degree last season, winning a Gold Glove and hitting .253 in his first full big league season, but he profiled as more of a platoon option.
2024 Splits
- Vs. LHP: .180 average and a .532 OPS (61 at-bats)
- Vs. RHP: .266 average and a .825 OPS (338 at-bats)
Those obviously aren’t large samples, but it’s all we had entering this season and splits like that aren’t uncommon for a younger hitter.
That said, through 54 at-bats this season, the kid has been great. His play in the field remains elite and with five multi-knock games, he’s showing growth well ahead of a standard developmental curve.
Up to this point, he has a 19.2-degree average launch angle and a 92.7 mile per hour average exit velocity – he’s one of eight hitters in the big leagues to check both of those boxes. Those underlying metrics suggest that there is more power in his bat than what we’ve seen lately (two bombs in the opener and just one since).
In terms of sustainability, there’s one stat to track and that’s his batting eye. Last season, he swung at 27.7% of pitches outside of the zone and 67.4% of strikes. Those are troubling rates, but he’s rebounded in a major way so far in 2025 with a 19.4% chase rate and a 76.1% strike swing percentage. If that level of growth is here to stay, Boston is likely to keep Abreu in the middle-third of their order and benefit in a massive way.
I’m buying. That batting eye positions him to avoid significant slumps and because I believe he’ll continue to be in high leverage spots given his spot in the order (40.7% of his AB’s this season have come with men on base), I think the counting numbers are going to continue to impress.