We are less than 10% of the way through the season, but that doesn’t mean we can’t flush out some MLB bold predictions based on the data we’ve collected up to this point.
I’ve got a pair of hitters and pitchers highlighted who I am more optimistic on moving forward than you based on their advanced statistical profile.
MLB Bold Predictions: Austin Riley Hits 35 Homers
It wasn’t long ago that Austin Riley slugged over .515 in back-to-back-to-back seasons, establishing himself as a high-contact, high-power bat in the middle of a feared Braves lineup, but that wasn’t the case last season (.256/.322/.461 batting slash) and certainly hasn’t been present thus far in 2025.
Be patient.
2023 Profile (37 HRs):
- 13.9% barrel rate
- 13.5-degree average launch angle
- 31% chase rate
2025 Profile:
- 21.4% barrel rate
- 32.6-degree average launch angle
- 24.3% chase rate
That season, 45.1% of his at-bats came with runners on base. Ronald Acuña Jr. (torn ACL) was a big part of that and elevating the fear of opponents, and he’s expected back in the next month or so. Riley’s rate sits at 40% this season — as the top of this order rebounds, I expect Riley to follow, be it in the very short term or once their offense is back at full strength with Acuña terrorizing pitching staffs.
There are some concerns out there about the downward trajectory of Riley’s slugging percentage since his breakout in 2021, and those are valid. That said, I’m more willing to buy into the advanced data and his barrel-to-launch angle rate for a 28-year-old who saw his numbers improve last season as the weather warmed.
Adolis García Drives in 100 Runs
Let’s be clear — Adolis García has been a mess this season. Outside of a three-hit game against Boston on March 29, the right fielder has just five hits (two going for extra bases) in 39 at-bats, a stretch that included an 0-for-17 run to open April.
Much like Riley, we got a down 2024 from García, thus making the slow start this year all that more alarming. Has he lost it? Is Father Time taking his pound of flesh and leaving us with a lesser version of the middle-of-the-order hitter who averaged essentially 100 RBIs from 2021 to 2023?
I’m not going that far just yet, and that’s why I’m buying the dip right now in betting markets and fantasy leagues where I can.
At this moment, among 180 qualifiers, García ranks 16th in average exit velocity (better than a pair of rising stars in Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill) and 21st in barrel rate (ahead of Fernando Tatís Jr. and Yordan Álvarez). Those stats are correlated to one another and often to BABIP as well, but the veteran outfielder ranks just 166th in that category thus far.
It doesn’t make sense and is something that should regress sooner than later. Once it does, I see no reason to bet against him as a run-producing threat in the middle third of this lineup.
Producing runs is, of course, a two-way street. Up to this point, just 11.9% of his at-bats have come with runners in scoring position, and while I don’t think Texas is a juggernaut, their league-low .230 BABIP figures to trend closer to league average and that would put García in position to push triple digits in the RBI department for the third time in his career.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Wins the NL Cy Young Award
A minor bump in the early season road for the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers has some revisiting the idea of them being the clear-cut best team in the sport, and I think that’s crazy.
Let me be clear: The panic isn’t widespread, but I have heard some whispers, and there has been some loosening of Los Angeles-related numbers in the betting markets. I’m ready to pounce on their best pitcher at 30-to-1 odds, understanding that I’m siding with quality over quantity.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has posted a triple-double this season: three starts with double-digit strikeouts OR double-digit ground balls induced. To me, it’s hard to overstate how impressive that is, but that won’t stop me from trying.
Tarik Skubal won a Cy Young last season, while Garrett Crochet and Paul Skenes are the favorites in their respective leagues to take home the honor this season. That trio has combined for two such starts so far.
Yamamoto made a great impression in his first 18 starts in the USA last season with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .229 opponent batting average. Through three starts, he’s ahead of pace across the board, and it’s largely because he’s constantly downloading ways to win at this level.
His raw stuff gives him a strikeout upside, but his mind is the tool firing at full capacity behind his 68.4% ground ball rate this year, easily the tops in the league and more than double his percentage from a season ago.
Wins are a stat that we’ve learned to overlook for the most part, but even for the few old-school thinkers (voters) out there, the equity in that regard is as high for him on a per basis as anyone, thanks to his supporting cast.
He’s ramped up the usage of his splitter and has proven to be a nightmare for those batting from the left side (.179 batting average during his 21 starts). You have to understand that the volume of starts is unlikely to be there with Los Angeles keeping an eye on his innings and giving him extended rest whenever possible, but on a per-start basis, the numbers could overwhelm.
If you’re going to invest, you’ll want to do it before tax day (Tuesday). Yamamoto’s next start is projected to be a home one against the Rockies (30th in our first run of MLB Power Rankings), and the next two could be dates with the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins.
Personally, there’s not a matchup I won’t like him in, but these plus matchups project as spots where he could produce in a special way. He’s an experienced pitcher who projects as the type that will continue to get better with time when it comes to reps against MLB-level competition.
Skenes held headlines for two months last summer as he pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA from the start of June through the end of July; I wouldn’t put such a run past Los Angeles’ talented 26-year-old.
Shane Baz Appears on Multiple Cy Young Ballots
Many bold predictions, this column included, pick on slow starters who are destined to bounce back in a big way, and I largely think that’s right. The MLB’s sample size is huge, and as mentioned, we just have a tiny piece of the puzzle at this point.
That said, there is some value in buying high on players who show signs of sustainability, and I think that is where we currently sit with Shane Baz, the 12th overall pick in 2017, who is starting to realize some of his ace potential.
Those paying attention down the stretch of last season will recall that, in 33 innings against the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, and Athletics, Baz allowed just 10 earned runs (2.73 ERA). That’s the type of production you like to see from a 25-year-old, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Baz is learning to pitch.
His cutter usage continues to tick up, and it’s been right there with his fastball as his most valuable weapon — so why not throw it more? We are talking about a gifted pitcher on the right side of the developmental curve who the rest of the baseball world has yet to label as a budding star.
In addition to all of the positive trends for Baz himself, he’s in a position organizationally to succeed. If I asked you to name the four pitchers, through 10 team games this season, who owned a single-digit opponent average launch angle and opponent barrel rate in addition to a sub-36% hard hit rate (metrics via FanGraphs), I guess that you’d first question my oddly specific criteria.
But after that, you’d likely list some of the game’s best and/or breakout candidates. The correct answers:
- Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
- Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
- Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Nothing to see here, just arguably the best pitcher in the sport, a popular pick deeper down the Cy Young board, and 40% of Tampa Bay’s starters. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but trends like that don’t happen by accident, and this organization has been at the forefront of leveraging math.