We’re roughly 15% through the regular season. While the MLB awards won’t be handed out for another five months or so, any numbers-based recognition requires us to evaluate the landscape early. After all, April production looks the same as mid-summer production when reviewing the full body of work.
We have a few expected names in the mix, along with some new entrants to the conversation. Who holds the top spot right now — and who will take home the hardware when it’s all said and done?
MLB Awards, Late April Edition
AL MVP
Just twice over the past 60 years has a player repeated as the American League’s Most Valuable Player (Frank Thomas in 1993-94 and Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13). Still, Aaron Judge has his sights set on joining that elite company.
His on-base numbers have been elite for the past three seasons and are now approaching lunacy. He’s not Barry Bonds, but walking him with the bases loaded doesn’t seem crazy, especially with his increased swing rate this season. He’s acknowledged that opponents have one way to get him out — getting ahead early in the count.
Good luck with that.
First 1,000 career games:
Aaron Judge
321 HR | 697 walks | 174 wRC+Mike Trout
224 HR | 638 walks | 172 wRC+Albert Pujols
266 HR | 529 walks | 166 wRC+Alex Rodriguez
255 HR | 411 walks | 141 wRC+Manny Ramirez
247 HR | 561 walks | 152 wRC+— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) April 5, 2025
He’s put the ball in play on one of the first two pitches 22 times this season and racked up 27 total bases (nine RBIs) in the process. I don’t want to cheapen the award or the competition, but if Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt continue to flirt with a .400 on-base percentage on either side of Judge, I see no reason for him to hit a meaningful slump.
Judge has logged 550-plus at-bats in three of the past four seasons, and if he’s baseball’s LeBron James in terms of health, there’s little reason to doubt him.
Best of the Rest: Wilyer Abreu, a defensive ace, has cooled off a bit, but the 25-year-old has shown significant development through his first 70 at-bats this season. His chase rate is down nearly 6.5 percentage points, and his 12 RBIs in 19 at-bats with runners in scoring position have helped steady a lineup that has had slow starts from Rafael Devers and a shaky pitching staff outside Garrett Crochet.
Spencer Torkelson has nearly tripled his barrel rate in his fourth professional season, helping the Tigers grab the top spot in the AL Central (13-9 record, the only team in the division with a positive run differential). In 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position and two outs, he’s knocked in seven runs, giving Detroit a real shot at back-to-back winning seasons.
Cedric Mullins was a fantasy darling in 2021 but struggled in the seasons since—until now. Through 20 games, Mullins sports a four-digit OPS and a rising launch angle for the fourth straight season. If the barrel rate continues to flirt with double digits, the peaks could outweigh the valleys. His Orioles have started slow (9-12, 4.5 games behind Judge’s Yankees), but if they rebound, Mullins will be key.
I’d take “the field” over Judge, barely, but if you’re asking me to pick any single player, it’s still Judge.
My Pick: Aaron Judge
NL MVP
The NL MVP race looks like it could be fascinating all year. While the AL award could end up in Judge’s hands by September, the NL feels wide open.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been dominant atop the Padres’ order, helping them lead the NL West (16-6 record, 12-1 at home, +35 run differential).
The Padres’ star right fielder started hot (nine hits in 20 March at-bats) and hasn’t cooled down much (seven of his first 20 April hits have left the park). His zone contact rate continues to improve, which could set him up for a truly remarkable season.
Tatis’ struggles against lefties remain a concern. He’s hitting just .231 against them, but his four walks to three strikeouts suggest progress. As long as he’s slugging .873 against right-handers, it’s a manageable issue.
Best of the Rest: Corbin Carroll looked lost at this time last year, but turned it around as the weather warmed. This year, he’s been far better out of the gate and could post video-game numbers.
The sleeping giant is Shohei Ohtani. He’s won three of the last four MVPs and is expected to resume pitching this summer. If the Dodgers need a boost, he could steal this race down the stretch.
Kyle Tucker and Pete Alonso are also off to red-hot starts. Tucker, now with the Cubs, is taking advantage of a potent lineup that has men on base nearly half the time. Meanwhile, Alonso, the Polar Bear, is back to crushing pitches, with a barrel rate nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career norm.
My Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr.
AL Cy Young
If the season ended today, Chris Bassitt would probably take home the award.
Yes, that Chris Bassitt — the one who saw his ERA rise for four straight seasons and struggled last summer (3-8 record, 5.38 ERA after July 1).
This year, he’s striking out nearly 12 per nine innings and has allowed just two runs in 23.1 innings despite facing some tough lineups. His BABIP is higher than his career average, meaning he’s been unlucky. His chase rate (31.3%) is also way above his career norm.
There’s likely some regression, but Bassitt’s early dominance is no fluke.
Best of the Rest: Hunter Brown continues to impress for Houston, dominating right-handed bats and improving as games progress. Max Fried has been a model of efficiency with back-to-back starts of 20-plus outs, and Garrett Crochet has been nasty, especially against lefties.
I prefer Fried slightly today, but it’s a wide-open race heading into the summer.
My Pick: Max Fried
NL Cy Young
Yoshinobu Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in April.
I recommended buying stock in him in late March, and that call has aged well.
In his last two starts (against the Cubs and Rangers), Yamamoto has racked up 19 strikeouts, allowed just seven hits, and walked one batter. He’s been barreled only three times, has an opponent launch angle of two degrees, and is holding hitters to a .103 average in two-strike counts.
Sure, he has fewer than 220 MLB innings, but I’m betting on him.
Best of the Rest: Kodai Senga has been almost invisible to right-handers but could face some regression. Jesus Luzardo has been electric at times, and Freddy Peralta looks like he’s taking another step, particularly with his improved cutter usage and strong finishes to seasons.
- 2023: 2.75 ERA in July-August
- 2024: 3.21 ERA in August-September
Peralta finishing strong again would put him firmly in the mix.