Mitch Trubisky’s Fantasy Outlook and Projection for 2022

What is Mitch Trubisky's fantasy outlook and projection for 2022, and should you look to draft him at his current ADP?

One of the more enigmatic players in the NFL and fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky projects to be a mid-round pick as his 2022 fantasy outlook suggests he could be undervalued this year. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Trubisky’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?

Mitch Trubisky’s fantasy outlook for 2022

Everybody deserves a second chance, including Trubisky, who now gets a chance to reset his career trajectory. Once a first-round pick, Trubisky is viewed as a quarterback fans feel they cannot trust.

And I don’t necessarily blame them. After a 2018 season that did show promise, completing 66% of his passes with a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 3,200 yards, Trubisky looked like a good pick. However, the next two years destroyed that same upside, which left him backing up Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills last year.

Signed to a two-year deal, Trubisky is getting his next chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Stepping in for the now-retired Ben Roethlisberger, it’s hard to blame Trubisky for what happened in Chicago completely. Matt Nagy is right up there with Adam Gase and Urban Meyer in terms of some of the most universally criticized coaches in recent years.

There were times when Trubisky showed a lot of talent. Even go back to last preseason when we saw them on the field for the Bills, Trubisky operated that offense and moved it down the field on command. We’re seeing a similar pattern in 2022.

Yes, I am well aware I am talking about preseason, but it’s also the most recent ball we have seen out of him. He is now in a better situation than where he was in Chicago. Trubisky has more experience, in my opinion, and might even be worth a spot start here or there along the way for fantasy.

Also, don’t forget, while he’s not Lamar Jackson, Trubisky can move on the ground, as evidenced in 2018 when he rushed nearly 70 times for 420 yards. I would not put him inside the top 20 at his position, but I would have no issue with him as my bye week fill-in for Superflex or 2QB fantasy leagues.

How the Pittsburgh Steelers’ depth chart impacts Mitch Trubisky’s fantasy projection for the season

As of now, all signs point to Trubisky being the starter for 2022. However, he is in a competition with rookie Kenny Pickett for the job. Both have had their moments, but the rookie is not going away and is already winning the hearts of the Steelers’ faithful. The first QB selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, the former Pitt Panther knows how to win at Hein … Acrisure Stadium.

He has the skills to win the job, and it will be interesting to see how long the leash is for Trubisky come any midseason struggles. This is where the value in Trubisky or Pickett is shaky, as there is no guarantee of how many games either will play.

What we do know is that whoever is on the field will have a solid group of playmakers at their disposal. In the backfield is Najee Harris, who not only rushed for 1,200 yards but led the NFL in RB receptions (74), was tied with Austin Ekeler for the most targets (94), and was third in yards. The Steelers will heavily rely on Harris in 2022 to take some of the load off Trubisky or Pickett.

They also have a very talented and young group of pass catchers. Diontae Johnson is one of the best route runners in the NFL and should be the target leader after doing so for the last two years, topping out at 28.5% last season. Chase Claypool is moving into the slot, and given his size at 6’4″, presents a large catch radius and mismatch for both intermediate and contested catches down the field.

Also added in this year’s class are rookies George Pickens and Calvin Austin III. Pickens is a Tier 1 receiver based on talent but slipped a bit after a torn ACL before his 2021 season. However, that did not stop him from returning and helping Groegia win the national championship over Alabama. He has also been the star of training camp, not just for the Steelers but arguably the NFL, with his highlight grabs.

I’ve already moved him above Claypool for fantasy and, at value, he is the Steelers WR I am drafting. Austin, while smaller in stature (5’8″ and 170 pounds), is one of the most explosive players on the field. A back-to-back 1,000-yard receiver, Austin was responsible for 20 touchdowns in his final two years.

Given the potential offensive line issues which have plagued the Steelers since the retirement of Maurkice Pouncey and Co., players who can operate in the short to the intermediate range with proficiency should be top targets for Trubisky and Pickett. This is why second-year TE Pat Freiermuth is a low-end TE1 for fantasy due to the expected volume and his skills in the red zone.

Trubisky’s ADP for 2022

With an ADP of 235, Trubisky is coming off the boards as the QB34 in 1QB formats, placing well outside the range of draftable players in 12-team fantasy leagues. For the sake of comparison, Pickett has an ADP of 234 (QB31).

In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Trubisky is nearly identical as the QB31 and 245th overall ranked player. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.

In 1QB formats, neither Trubisky nor Pickett should be drafted. With only 12 quarterbacks started across the entire league, there is far too much depth and upside to choose from before needing to dip into this portion of the pool. If there is some miraculous metamorphosis and Trubisky is everything the Bears saw in him, by all means, pick him up off waivers. However, even as crazy as the NFL can be, I can only imagine how small the odds are of this happening.

Now, in Superflex leagues, things change. Due to positional scarcity, every starting QB should be drafted. I recommend leaving the draft with three starting QBs, and two inside the top 16 at the position. For one, we need to see who wins the job. However, drafting a QB in a positional battle could end up being a wasted pick if a change happens midseason. I would personally stay away from this situation if I could. If forced, I think I might lean on Pickett’s upside since there is not much to lose.

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