The Minnesota Vikings travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants in a season-opening NFC battle on Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota is starting a new era at quarterback, but not quite in the way team brass had envisioned. Sam Darnold, brought on this offseason to serve as a bridge to rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, is now potentially set to start the entire season with the latter out for the season with a knee injury.
The Giants’ situation under center is newsworthy in its own right, considering Daniel Jones is very likely playing for his Big Apple career this season.
Let’s break down all the relevant NFL betting and fantasy football angles for the Vikings-Giants season-opening matchup.
Vikings at Giants Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Vikings -122, Giants +102
- Total: 41.5
Sam Darnold as a road favorite is a scary thought, yet I’m still rolling with the Minnesota Vikings here.
Where there is the possibility of Darnold seeing ghosts again in his return to MetLife Stadium against this Giants defensive line, I think the Vikings have the edge in too many other position matchups here.
For the Giants to win this game, their defensive line would have to wreak havoc on the Vikings. Although that’s entirely possible with their pass-rushing trio of Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, I’m not sure it can swing the game enough against the Vikings’ eight-ranked offensive line.
Even with Darnold under center, the Vikings should be able to exploit an inexperienced Giants secondary thanks to their wide receiver duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Giants 14
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Vikings at Giants Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: Fox
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FOX NOW
- Radio Stations: KFAN FM 100.3, WFAN 101.9FM/660AM
- Starting QBs: Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones
The final early afternoon matchups see the Minnesota Vikings heading to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants. The Vikings had a roller coaster of an offseason, starting with Kirk Cousins’ Achilles injury last season. While just speculation at the time, it seemed evident that the Cousins era in Minnesota had ended, with those clues becoming a reality when he signed with the Falcons in free agency.
After his departure, the QB situation was a bit of a mystery. Who were they going to bring in to take over under center? Would they draft one of the many signal callers highly touted in the 2024 NFL Draft or spring for a veteran? The answer was both. The Vikings brought in Sam Darnold while drafting J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall selection in the draft, and things seemed fine … for a moment.
In Week 1 of the preseason, McCarthy made his NFL debut, surprising many by throwing two touchdowns and helping the Vikings fight back from a 20-7 first-half deficit. However, the glimpse of the future would be pushed off as the rookie reported knee soreness the next day; after further evaluation, it was discovered to be a torn meniscus. With McCarthy’s rookie season a goner, Darnold solidified his starting status.
The Vikings have quite an array of offensive weapons, which Darnold never had until his minimal snaps with the 49ers last season. They even improved in the backfield, bringing in RB Aaron Jones from the Green Bay Packers. While they wait on TE T.J. Hockenson to get healthy as he starts the season on the PUP list, Darnold should have no issues finding WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
This team’s ceiling is not really known, but the floor can only be so low with a game-breaking WR like Jefferson at your disposal. If defensive coordinator Brian Flores can get the unit to turn things around, what looked like a grim season might not be so bad. Here’s to hoping for a speedy recovery from McCarthy.
Speaking of recoveries, the Giants are anxious to see how QB Daniel Jones looks in his return from a torn ACL suffered six weeks into the 2023 season. While Danny Dimes went down with the injury, it might have bought him more time as he had amassed 909 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions, and one fumble lost during a 1-5 stretch.
While New York had the opportunity to select McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. to give Jones some stiff competition, they elected to get him another weapon by drafting WR Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick. Nabers immediately slides into the WR1 slot backed up by Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt.
Given the tumultuous quarterback situation, all three did their best last season in New York and should see improvement from having one arm under center for most of the season. However, the Giants hope Jones looks more like the quarterback who led them to a playoff berth in 2022, not the guy who looked lost to start the season in 2023.
Vikings at Giants Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold: Maybe there is a world in which we see the best version of Darnold on a Vikings team that, when at full strength, has a trio of pass catchers that is certainly capable of elevating the quarterback. Banking on him being usable out of the gates in anything but deep Superflex leagues, however, is borderline crazy.
In Darnold’s six best fantasy performances to date, he challenged secondaries deep downfield with an aDOT of 9.2 yards. I suspect we see a more conservative approach from him to open this season, especially in a game where the script is unlikely to demand aggression, resulting in him ranking outside of my top 20 at the position.
Daniel Jones: For the time being, Jones has one job for fantasy managers and one job only – make Malik Nabers work.
I could tell you that Jones is fifth at the position in rushing yards since entering the league and, with a true WR1 on the roster, that profile is what fantasy managers draw up. But I think we’ve seen enough to really need proof of concept before putting Mr. Dimes anywhere near fantasy lineups.
It’s possible that Jones looks good through two weeks this season against two of the seven worst defenses from 2023 in terms of opponent passer rating. It doesn’t matter. We’ve seen sparks from him in the past, and the position is simply too deep to get sucked back in.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: Could this game get chaotic? It features the two most blitz-heavy teams from 2023, and we aren’t talking about passing games that are likely to punish aggressive defensive play-calling. That should result in plenty of opportunities for Jones.
“Should,” is the keyword.
One cannot help but notice that Jones hasn’t been trusted with much in the way of work to open the past three seasons. Since the start of 2021, he has five games with under 12 touches despite playing over 46% of the snaps:
- 2021 Week 1
- 2021 Week 12
- 2022 Week 1
- 2023 Week 1
- 2023 Week 8
Yes, those games came as a member of the Packers, but maybe Jones’ body requires time to get into full game shape? I wish I could explain this usage. I can’t. But I can point it out and I can also mention that Ty Chandler has been on this roster during Kevin O’Connell’s entire tenure.
If you’re starting a Vikings back, it’s Jones, but I don’t feel great about it. At the very least, the game script shouldn’t be an issue – a sentence I might not get to write for this team again until late October.
Ty Chandler: I expect Chandler to assume a greater role as the season progresses. And if Jones shows any signs of the age decline that the Packers feared, maybe he approaches standalone value sooner rather than later.
The Giants allowed the fourth-most yards per RB carry before contact last year. If Chandler is going to make a statement with his carries and earn more work, this could be a spot for him to do so.
Devin Singletary: I’m skeptical that Singletary will hold on to the bell-cow role in this offense through October, and I’m not sure his season gets off to a great start.
During his entire career up to this point, Singletary has been involved in offenses that have proven to be dangerous. He spent four seasons with the Bills and Josh Allen before taking his talents to Houston last year in an offense that was as potent as anyone once the Texans figured out what C.J. Stroud was capable of.
It’s safe to say that this situation in New York is not the same as either of those. Running lanes are going to be more difficult to come by, and for a player who hasn’t had a 35-yard carry in over nearly 1,000 days, counting on the home run play isn’t exactly wise.
The Vikings’ defense had their share of issues in 2023, but they allowed a league-low six running back carries of 15+ yards. I think you can get away with Flexing Singletary in the rare Giants game that should come down to the wire, and thus stabilize his touch count. But asking for much more than that is dangerous with Tyrone Tracy Jr. set to nip at his heels for touches.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: While there is no actionable advice here, this will be an interesting situation to watch. How does this Darnold-led pass game function?
He couldn’t have asked for a softer landing spot to debut, and his WR1 could well look like the record-setting version of himself that we’ve become so accustomed to seeing over the past four seasons.
Jefferson averages 9.6 targets per game for his career and while you can question the quality of those looks this season, it seems safe to assume that volume won’t be an issue.
In 2023, there were 14 times when a receiver saw at least nine targets against the G-men, and they averaged 21.1 PPR PPG.
Obviously, there are some star receivers in perfect spots on that list (A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb to name two), but also included is Garrett Wilson (a decent template for the worst-case 2024 scenario for Jefferson), and lesser talents like Quez Wakins and Demarcus Robinson.
I’d bet the “under” on 21.1 fantasy points for Jefferson in this game, but the fact that an outcome of that level is within reason should squash your concerns for arguably the best receiver in the game. Save those worries for next week against the 49ers.
Jordan Addison: With off-the-field issues this preseason and a mid-August ankle sprain, why even take the risk of considering Addison for your lineup until we see him play?
As a rookie, Addison scored on 14.3% of his receptions, a rate that I was going to label as unsustainable if Kirk Cousins had remained on this roster. It’s now a near certainty Addison won’t come close to matching that in 2024.
He could see his fair share of targets with T.J. Hockenson on the shelf, but asking Addison to post Flex-worthy numbers on a consistent basis is a step I’m not close to taking.
Addison needs a touchdown to bail you out, and maybe he gets it against the 25th-ranked red-zone defense from a year ago. But without a score, Addison’s floor is awfully low, and that’s why he’s hovering around WR50 in my ranks.
Malik Nabers: Reasonable minds disagree if the chicken or the egg came first, and reasonable minds disagree if Nabers’ talent will shine through a cloudy QB situation or if the lack of talent under center will mute his abilities.
I have my concerns when it comes to week-over-week consistency, but Nabers profiles as a starter in all formats for his professional debut.
Last season, receivers cleared 15 PPR points against the Vikings 13 times, six of which came from a QB labeled as nothing more than average.
Highlighting that list was Tee Higgins (22.1 points with Jake Browning) and Adam Thielen (15.2 points with Bryce Young), the latter of which is a pretty good baseline. In that game, Thielen accounted for 37.3% of Young’s completions and was featured in an offense that essentially tried to melt the clock (24-play edge in plays run and over 38 minutes of possession).
I expect the Giants to run a similar death-by-1,000-paper-cuts style of play this season, and we could well see the best version of it in the season opener given the time to prepare.
The Vikings were vulnerable on a per-play basis last season, but they were above average in red-zone defense, making volume all that more valuable for Nabers.
The early schedule plays out favorably for Nabers – the Vikings, Commanders, and Cowboys (likely without DaRon Bland) are three of the Giants’ four September opponents. I maintain my stance that Nabers could well be a sell-high candidate by midseason.
Lock him in this week, but don’t get out over your skis if he hangs a big number.
Darius Slayton: Fun fact Alert — Slayton is just 27 years old, yet he is the only player with four seasons of 700+ receiving yards on 50 or fewer catches this millennium.
By “fun,” I mean very specific and not at all appealing in our game.
Slayton scored in three straight games to end the 2023 regular season, which helped salvage an underwhelming season. But this isn’t a profile I want a piece of in annual leagues.
In a matchup like this against Minnesota, which allowed the 10th-highest pass TD rate on deep passes last season, value hunters could justify burning a DFS lineup with Slayton, who saw over 29% of his targets come 15+ yards down the field in all five of his NFL seasons. But outside of that, Slayton has little appeal and doesn’t need to be rostered in standard formats.
Tight Ends
Investing in either of these offenses is scary enough, so why bring a zero-point floor into the equation by looking in this direction?
T.J. Hockenson is an interesting stash (I have my concerns about him providing top-five numbers immediately upon his return), but until that time, there isn’t a tight end on either of these rosters that you need to waste brain power on.
Vikings at Giants Key Stats To Know
Team: The Vikings tied the Panthers for the fewest games in which they scored first in 2024 (five), but they were undefeated in those games while Carolina managed to go winless.
Offense: A league-high 73.7% of Minnesota’s offensive yards last season came through the air (NFL average: 66% … the Giants ranked 29th at 60.6%).
Defense: The Vikings gave up just 16 first downs via penalty last season, fewest in the league (NFL average: 29.5).
Fantasy: Justin Jefferson averages 9.6 targets per game for his career, and while you can question the quality of those looks this season, it seems safe to assume that volume won’t be an issue. In 2023, a receiver saw at least nine targets on 14 occasions against the G-men, and they averaged 21.1 PPR PPG in those instances.
Betting: The Vikings have covered 66.7% of games over the past two seasons when the closing total is under 45 points.
AT
Team: The Giants were the fourth-worst team at generating pressure when blitzing … the Vikings were one of the three teams that was worse.
Offense: Darius Slayton: Fun fact alert – Slayton is just 27 years of age, yet he is the only player with four seasons of 700+ receiving yards on no more than 50 catches this millennium.
Defense: The Giants allowed a first down on a league-high 28.2% of rush attempts last season (league average: 24%).
Fantasy: A receiver cleared 15 PPR points against the Vikings on 13 occasions last season, six of which came from a QB considered nothing more than average through the air.
Betting: Over the past two seasons, the Giants have covered 66.7% of their games in which they are underdogs.