The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Mike Evans.
Is Mike Evans Playing vs. the Commanders?
Evans does not have an injury designation heading into the game this weekend. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play vs. the Commanders.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Mike Evans on Wild Card Weekend?
It took some doing, but we got Mike Evans to his 1,000 yards last weekend, and he is very much trending in the right direction to make an impact in both Wild Card and postseason-long formats.
I find that players like this are the ones who swing those extended events. He’s a clear star, but with his team being involved in a coin-flip first game, there’s not the same level of excitement that a player like A.J. Brown generates, a similar player with a greater chance to advance.
Evans is the top-scoring PPR receiver since Week 13 who qualified for the playoffs, thanks in large part to earning 9.8 targets per game over that stretch. Based on his résumé, I see no reason to think that changes this week – 12.3% production over expectation for his playoff career with 25+ points in three of his past five postseason games.
If you want to get a little more specific in slicing the data, he’s thrived as a playoff favorite (23.5 PPG compared to 12.9 as an underdog) and that’s the situation he finds himself in this week.
Dragging down his DFS ownership number is the matchup with Marshon Lattimore. The two did battle on a twice-annual basis while Lattimore was with the New Orleans Saints, and the matchups have largely gone the way of the talented cornerback.
Evans’ career splits:
- Evans vs. Saints: 79 air yards per game with a 17.5% on-field target share
- Evans vs. the rest of the NFL: 125.8 air yards per game with a 24.3% on-field target share
Those numbers are enough to have me leery, but if I see a low enough ownership projection entering the weekend, I’d be willing to throw caution to the wind with a few lineups with the thought being that divisional games simply play differently. This version of Baker Mayfield is capable of keeping his WR1 fed, even in a difficult spot.
That said, I’m more likely to attack this game on the ground. I think the Bucs can control this game, and if that’s going to be the case, we should get a heavy dose of Bucky Irving. Personally, I like that angle with the Commanders passing attack rostered on the other end, though that plays into my projection for how this game will go.
If you like the Commanders, flipping my build on its head with a Mayfield-Evans-Brian Robinson core is plenty reasonable.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mike Evans’ Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Evans is projected to score 21.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.2 receptions for 89.9 yards and 1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs, starting with the Buccaneers. Washington continues to miss Marshon Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders ranked 24th in defensive EPA per dropback, the third-lowest among the 14 playoff teams.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Mike Evans’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card WR PPR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAR)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIN)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (vs. LAC)
5) Mike Evans | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Ladd McConkey | LAC (at HOU)
7) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at TB)
8) Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BUF)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
10) Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAR)
11) Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIN)
12) George Pickens | PIT (at BAL)
13) Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. WAS)
14) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. DEN)
15) Quentin Johnston | LAC (at HOU)
16) Jayden Reed | GB (at PHI)
17) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at BUF)
18) Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs. PIT)
19) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Romeo Doubs | GB (at PHI)
21) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at TB)
22) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Calvin Austin III | PIT (at BAL)
24) Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PHI)
25) John Metchie III | HOU (vs. LAC)
26) Jalen Nailor | MIN (at LAR)
27) Devaughn Vele | DEN (at BUF)
28) Dyami Brown | WAS (at TB)
29) Sterling Shepard | TB (vs. WAS)
30) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. DEN)
31) Mike Williams | PIT (at BAL)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (vs. MIN)
33) Diontae Johnson | HOU (vs. LAC)
34) Nelson Agholor | BAL (vs. PIT)
35) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
36) DJ Chark | LAC (at HOU)
37) Van Jefferson | PIT (at BAL)
38) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at TB)
39) Troy Franklin | DEN (at BUF)
40) Robert Woods | HOU (vs. LAC)
41) Malik Heath | GB (at PHI)
42) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. DEN)
43) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (vs. LAC)
44) Bo Melton | GB (at PHI)
45) Jordan Whittington | LAR (vs. MIN)
46) Tylan Wallace | BAL (vs. PIT)
47) Derius Davis | LAC (at HOU)
48) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. GB)
49) Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN (at BUF)
50) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at TB)
51) Tyler Johnson | LAR (vs. MIN)
52) Ryan Miller | TB (vs. WAS)
53) Devontez Walker | BAL (vs. PIT)
54) Trey Palmer | TB (vs. WAS)
55) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. GB)
56) Rakim Jarrett | TB (vs. WAS)
57) Brandon Powell | MIN (at LAR)
58) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
59) Anthony Miller | BAL (vs. PIT)
60) Christian Watson | GB (at PHI)
61) Tyrell Shavers | BUF (vs. DEN)
62) Roman Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
63) K.J. Osborn | BUF (vs. DEN)
64) Dennis Houston | TB (vs. WAS)
65) Dayton Wade | BAL (vs. PIT)
66) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. GB)
67) Dez Fitzpatrick | LAC (at HOU)
68) David Sills V | DEN (at BUF)
69) Cody Thompson | TB (vs. WAS)
70) Brycen Tremayne | WAS (at TB)
71) Cornelius Johnson | GB (at PHI)
72) Kazmeir Allen | WAS (at TB)
73) Lucky Jackson | MIN (at LAR)
74) Drake Stoops | LAR (vs. MIN)
75) Danny Gray | PHI (vs. GB)
76) Xavier Smith | LAR (vs. MIN)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.