The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South four years in a row, but that might be coming to an end. PFSN’s recent win-loss predictor forecasts Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons to come out on top in the division for the first time since 2016.
Atlanta Falcons Predicted to Finish with 11-6 Record
The projections are optimistic for both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It predicts the Buccaneers will still make the playoffs with a 10-7 record and earn the seventh seed. However, it has the Falcons coming out on top with an 11-6 record and winning the division.
The predictor believes in the Falcons’ offense under Michael Penix. It estimates the Falcons to have 396 points next season, the second-highest total in the NFC, behind only the Philadelphia Eagles. They are predicted to also be the only NFC South team to have a positive point differential at +32. That will put them fourth in the conference, behind only the Eagles, Washington Commanders, and Detroit Lions.
Conversely, the predictor was not as high on the other NFC South teams. The Carolina Panthers are projected to finish 6-11, which would be an improvement on their 5-12 record last season, but not enough to make the playoffs. With Derek Carr’s retirement, the New Orleans Saints are predicted to be tied for the worst record in the league at 2-15 and finish with the #2 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
The 11-6 record will earn the Falcons the #3 seed and set up a home matchup on wild card weekend against the Green Bay Packers, who also finish with an 11-6 record.
The Falcons Open the Season Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons will start the season with a home opener against their greatest threat in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They will then have a Sunday Night Football game against the Minnesota Vikings, where Penix may be facing off against J.J. McCarthy for the first time since both quarterbacks were drafted in the top 10 in 2024.
They get an early bye week in Week 5, followed by a Monday Night Football matchup against the Buffalo Bills. They will also have an international game in Week 10 when they travel to Berlin to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
Head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will also face their former team, the Los Angeles Rams, for the first time since departing in a Week 17 matchup. The Falcons then end their season with a game against NFC South rivals the Saints.