2024 NFL Draft Odds: Which Teams Could Draft Michael Penix Jr.?

As the NFL Draft nears, many teams require a QB. What teams might be interested in Washington's Michael Penix Jr.?

Several NFL teams are in search of a franchise quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is probably not going to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board, but there’s upside here for him to be a team’s answer at QB. Let’s take a look at the teams most likely to land the Washington QB.

Current NFL Draft Odds for Michael Penix Jr.’s Landing Spot

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and correct as of April 3, 2024.

  • Minnesota Vikings | +250
  • Las Vegas Raiders | +320
  • Seattle Seahawks | +400
  • Denver Broncos | +500
  • New England Patriots | +700
  • New York Giants | +950
  • New Orleans Saints | +2000
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2500

What Is Penix’s NFL Draft Projection?

Let’s break down the top 4-6 teams in terms of odds and why each could make sense as a landing spot.

The consensus top four quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy (although not necessarily in that order). A guy like Penix will go later in the draft — potentially on Day 2. That opens up a much wider range of potential landing spots.

The Vikings are a rare team that doesn’t pick early but desperately needs a QB. After losing Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons, they now find themselves with Sam Darnold atop the depth chart. The Vikings know he’s not the answer.

It would be a major surprise if the Vikings didn’t at least take a shot on one of the quarterbacks in this year’s class. Since, absent a trade-up, they won’t be positioned to take Williams, Maye, or Daniels, settling for a guy like Penix in the late first or second round makes sense. Nevertheless, the odds are far too short for this to be worth betting.

The Raiders find themselves in a similar spot to the Vikings. They have a better projected 2024 starter in Gardner Minshew II, but he’s probably not the long-term answer. Given that they don’t pick particularly high either, taking a chance on a guy like Penix on Day 2 would be logical. This is not a bad bet for Penix’s landing spot.

Penix to Seattle at +400 is somewhat strange. Geno Smith has more than proven he’s deserving of being a team’s starter. While far from the greatest QB in the world, Penix does not project to be better than Smith. The link with Penix having played at Washington University may explain his odds being so low. This is one bettors should pass on.

The Broncos are very much in play to take a quarterback. In fact, it would be a major upset if they didn’t.

Following the release of Russell Wilson, the Broncos are left with Jarrett Stidham atop the depth chart. If they go into the season with him as the starter, this will probably be a “rebuilding” year.

While the Broncos could opt to wait for the 2025 NFL Draft, when they will likely pick very early, there’s no harm in taking a shot late on Day 1 or early on Day 2 with a QB this year. Penix’s projected draft position makes him someone the Broncos could target. But those odds are a bit too short to bet.

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The Patriots are most likely not going to take Penix No. 3 overall. The scenario in which Penix lands in New England would almost certainly involve them trading down. That’s not something bettors should bank on them doing. Look for the Patriots to take whichever one of Maye or Daniels the Commanders don’t take at No. 2.

For a guy like Penix, if you’re intent on betting his landing spot, he’s the type of player you want to take a stab at a long shot. We like to project players to land in spots where they are needed, but it often doesn’t work out that way. Penix could conceivably land on about 20 different teams. Taking a shot on someone like the Saints at +2000 or the Buccaneers at +2500 is not the worst idea.

Penix’s Scouting Report

Penix is the sixth-ranked quarterback and 33rd overall player on PFN’s NFL Draft Analyst Ian Cummings’ big board.

In Cummings’ scouting report, his strengths for Penix include what he described as a “rocket arm,” a “high-IQ passer,” a gunslinger mentality, and speed in the open field. Penix also has a strong pocket presence and is able to make space in the pocket to avoid pressure.

Among the weaknesses that Cummings identified are concerns when Penix has to work off-script, over-aggressiveness when hunting the big play, and slight elements in mechanics that could be tightened up. There are also concerns due to injury issues earlier in his career, which have meant he is a 24-year-old rookie with injury question marks, both of which could be seen as red flags.

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