Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Predictions: 7 Crucial Stats Plus Players To Watch

The Washington Commanders host the Miami Dolphins in a Week 13 showdown that on paper is decidedly one-sided.

The JV stretch of the Miami Dolphins‘ 2023 schedule continues with a Week 13 mismatch against the nosediving Washington Commanders.

It’s the third straight week the Dolphins are heavily favored (by 9.5 points as of Friday morning), and if history is any guide, they’ll not only win Sunday but do so convincingly.

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Game Preview

A win would give the Dolphins their first 9-3 start to the season since 2001. They’re 22-9 in their last 31 games started by Tua Tagovailoa, and by beating the Commanders Sunday, would ensure their fourth-straight winning season.

Want more stats? We got seven of them right here, courtesy of Inside Edge.

7 Dolphins-Chiefs Stats From Inside Edge

Stat: The Dolphins have thrown for 8.5 yards per attempt this season — second-best in the NFL. The Commanders have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback this season — second-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Tagovailoa’s MVP candidacy should get a shot in the arm this weekend. The Dolphins have 23 touchdown passes this season — tied for second-most in the NFL. The Commanders have allowed 28 passing TDs this season — most in the NFL.

Stat: Washington has run just 34% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 9 — third-worst in the NFL. Miami has allowed their opponents to run just 28.1% of plays in their territory since Week 9 — best in the NFL.

Analysis: The tilted field is a big reason why the Dolphins are plus-88 in point differential and the Commanders are minus-104. Here’s another: Washington has run just 7.3% offensive plays in the red zone since Week 9 — fifth-worst in the NFL. Miami has allowed their opponents to run just 6.6% of plays in the red zone since Week 9 — second-best in the NFL.

Stat: Commanders wide receivers have averaged 23.8 targets per game this season — third-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 14.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — third-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Those Miami stats are dated. Pairing Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard together has gone better than even the most optimistic expectations. Since Ramsey was inserted into the lineup in Week 8, the Dolphins are first in EPA per play (-.209) and second in dropback EPA (-.223).

Stat: Tua has a 104.6 passer rating since the 2022 season — best of qualified quarterbacks. Washington has allowed a passer rating of 96.5 since the 2022 season — second-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: The Commanders have arguably the worst defense in the NFL. They’ve traded away their two best players (Montez Sweat and Chase Young), and they fired their defensive coordinator (Jack Del Rio). A fifty-burger is a real possibility Sunday.

Stat: Dolphins WRs have 236 receiving yards per game this season — best in the NFL. The Commanders have averaged 196.2 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — second-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Jaylen Waddle is getting healthy, and it shows. He’s averaged 83 yards per game in his last four — an increase of 38.8% over his average in Weeks 1-7.

MORE: The Miami Dolphins Are Going To Light Up the Washington Commanders’ Defense in Week 13

Stat: Commanders QB Sam Howell has been sacked 55 times this season — second-most in the NFL. Miami has sacked the quarterback 38 times this season — third-most in the NFL.

Analysis: The loss of Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) certainly hurts, but the Dolphins should still have more than enough pass rush. Their sacks-per-game average this year has actually been higher when he’s been injured than healthy.

Stat: The Dolphins are 9-3 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — tied for eighth-best in the NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 15 passes since the 2022 season — tied for fewest in the NFL.

Analysis: Tagovailoa’s only flaw this year has been his propensity to turn the ball over. He is throwing interceptions at a higher rate (2.7%) than at any point in his NFL or college career.

Dolphins vs. Commanders Predictions

  • Adam Beasley: Dolphins
  • David Bearman: Dolphins
  • Dalton Miller: Dolphins
  • Jay Morrison: Dolphins
  • Dallas Robinson: Dolphins

Be sure to check out all of PFN’s Week 13 predictions.

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